A QUICK OVERVIEW OF CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
Michael A. Taylor Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)
Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.
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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.
Strong Motivation “ The size, topography (steep hilly interiors and narrow coastal zones) and economic ac9vi9es force considera9on of climate as an issue for the Caribbean, especially rainfall…”
“There is an overwhelming dependence on surface and groundwater which means a very strong dependence on rainfall”
“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”
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1. Dry Season December - April
3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov
2. Rainfall Season May - November Peaks in September/October
Interest: What drives this paDern…
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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY
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Chen and Taylor (2002)
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High Pressure
Trade Wind Strength + verIcal shear
SSTs
Easterly Waves
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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY
Ashby et al. (2005) Gamble et al. (2008)
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(3)
0
50
100
150
Jan FebMarAprMay Jun Ju
lAugSep Oc
tNovDec
mm
24252627282930
Celsius
NAH moves closer to equator
Stronger trades
Low SST
Mid-lat fronts
NAH starts Northward migration
Weaker trades
SST begins to increase
NAH temporarily retreats Southward
‘Mid-Summer Drought’
NAH return Northward
High SST
Easterly waves
ITCZ North
Jamaica
Climatology (Bar graph – precip, line graph –temp)
Air Temp follows the sun
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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY
CSGM (2012)
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1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean
1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
El Niño
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
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Taylor et al. (2002) Spence et al. (2004) Gouirand et al. (2013)
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1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S
0
2 0 N
4 0 N
-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W
1 0 N
1 5 N
2 0 N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean
1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
El Niño
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
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Changes large scale circulaIons
Increases shear Warms Caribbean Sea
Taylor et al. (2002) Spence et al. (2004) Gouirand et al. (2013)
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NAO+ ENSO
¢ Combina9ons of PaBerns of variability
+50% a 3-5 yrs +15-30% a 5-10 yrs 20% a >10 yrs
+60% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs
<50% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs 16-33% a >10 yrs
Gouirand et al. (2011)
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
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Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.
Gradients in SSTs between Equatorial Pacific and Tropical AtlanIc
Low level wind strengths (CLLJ)
Drier than normal Caribbean basin during midsummer drought
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
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Gradient Indices
Taylor et al. (2002) Whyte et al. (2007) Gouirand et al. (2013)
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Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.
Caribbean Rain/Drought Models
MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 + 0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) + 0.1187 VSH4(FMA)
ASON RAIN = – 0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ)
R2 = 0.76
R2 = 0.70
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
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Ashby et al. (2005)
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SST composite: Flood minus Drought
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HISTORICAL DROUGHT Significant Drought and Drought Influences
Walters et al. (2014)
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Stephenson et al (2014)
Total rainfall
Intense rainfall
1961-2010 1986-2010
Other Indices of Rainfall/Drought
CLIMATE EXTREMES
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Stephenson et al (2014)
Other Indices of Rainfall/Drought
CLIMATE EXTREMES
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Day time temperatures
Night time temperatures
1961-2010 1986-2010
Caribbean consists of territories with limited and unequally distributed resources and capacities. Effectively responding to the crisis of climate change needs coordination and collaboration. Coordinated Science approach
Since 2009… Resolution (Km) Coverage Boundary Data SRES 50 1960 - 1990 HadAM3P A2 50 2070 - 2100 HadAM3P A2 50 2070 - 2100 HadAM3P B2 50 1960 - 2100 ECHAM4 A2 50 1990 - 2100 ECHAM4 B2 50 1989-2002 ERA-INTERIM 50 1979-1993 ERA15 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q0 A1B 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q3 A1B 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q4 A1B 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q10 A1B 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q14 A1B 25 1960 - 2040 HadCM3Q11 A1B 25 1960 - 2100 ECHAM5 A1B 50 1989-2002 ERA-INTERIM 50 1960–2000 ERA40
PRECIS
RegCM4 h t t p : / / p r e c i s . i n s m e t . c u / P r e c i s -Caribe.htm
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CLIMATE MODELS - COLLABORATION
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CLIMATE MODELS - VALUE
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Regional models are important and necessary tools for providing climate change information at the scale of the Caribbean.
CRU (observed)
CMIP3 GCMs
Karmalkar et al. (2013)
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CLIMATE MODELS - VALUE
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Regional models are important and necessary tools for providing climate change information at the scale of the Caribbean.
CRU (observed)
PRECIS (RCM)
Present day rain Karmalkar et al. (2013)
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CLIMATE MODELS - PHYSICS
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G. ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICAN MIDSUMMER DROUGHT Martinez et al. (2014)
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Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-‐2099 with respect to 1961-‐1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century. Drying between 25% and 30%
Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.
Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!
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CLIMATE MODELS - PROJECTIONS
Campbell et al. (2010)
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Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-‐2099 with respect to 1961-‐1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm. Warming between 1 and 5oC
Warming greater under A2 scenario.
Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.
Warming far exceeds natural variability
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CLIMATE MODELS - PROJECTIONS
Campbell et al. (2010)
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Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km)
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Nurmohamed et al. (2013) Donk et al. (2014)
CLIMATE MODELS - IMPACTS
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.
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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.
Strong Motivation “ The size, topography (steep hilly interiors and narrow coastal zones) and economic ac9vi9es force considera9on of climate as an issue for the Caribbean, especially rainfall…”
“There is an overwhelming dependence on surface and groundwater which means a very strong dependence on rainfall”
“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”
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SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RESEARCH
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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY
DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY
EXTREMES
CLIMATE MODELS