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© 2012 IBM Corporation

Cezar Taurion

Executivo de Novas Tecnologias/Technical Evangelist

Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond

© 2012 IBM Corporation2

Globalization

Trade Deregulation

Internet

Commoditization

A New Model for the Enterprise in a Flat World

Globally Integrated Enterprise

• Uncertain macroeconomic indicators in developed economies/ Unstable European economic conditions

• Developing economies now contribute more to world economic growth than developed economies.

• Success of China’s economy becoming more crucial

• Demographic shifts continue as people live longer

• Risks are everywhere, resulting in unpredictability


Vivemos uma rápida evolução da internet


The 3rd generation of computing platform, the 3rd phase of the Internet, and the explosion of information are colliding to form a perfect storm of disruption and transformation

InternetWeb2.0

Web 3.0 (Cloud, Mobile, Social)

1964 2008200319941981

Mainframe

Client Server/PC

Mobile Devices (Smartphones,

Tablets, etc)

Amount of Data Collected and Stored

Generations of Computing Platforms

Phases of the Internet

2012

2020-2


2012 Technology Trends To Watch

5

1. Cloud Computing

2. Social Business

3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT

4. Big Data/Analytics


A cloud computing primer – your 60 second guide

Start

Finish

A new model of IT delivery and consumption… …inspired by internet

services in the consumer space

Key ingredients:

•elasticity

•PAYG

•on-demand self-service

Analogies - electricity generation

and The

Model-T Ford

Evolutionary, not revolutionary – time sharing, hosting, ASP

Variants – public, private, hybrid, community,

G-cloud add to confusion

Get toknowtheCloudstack

Near-term adoption overstated, long-term impact underestimated –all bets are off !

A “confluence of technologies” –virtualization, SOA, multi-tennancy

?


Software/ Application-as-a-Service

Financials

Industry SpecificApplications

CRM/ERP/HR

Collaboration

Platform-as-a-Service

Middleware

Database

Web 2.0 ApplicationsRuntime

DevelopmentTools

Desktop

Infrastructure-as-a-Service

Servers Networking StorageData Center

Fabric

Consolidated, standardised, virtualised,shared, dynamically provisioned, automated

Cloud Service Models


A range of deployment options

Private PublicHybrid

IT capabilities are provided “as a service,” over an intranet, within the enterprise and behind the firewall

Internal and external service delivery methods are integrated

IT activities / functions are provided “as a service,” over the Internet

Enterprise data center

Managed private cloud

� Third-party operated

� Client owned

� Mission critical

� Packaged applications

� High compliancy

� Internal network

Enterprise data center

Private cloud

� Private

� On client premises

� Client runs/ manages

Public cloud services

Users

B

� Shared resources

� Elastic scaling

� Pay as you go

� Public Internet

A

Member cloud services

A

Enterprise

B

� Mix of shared and dedicated resources

� Shared facility and staff

� Virtual private network (VPN) access

� Subscription or membership based

Hosted private cloud

Enterprise

� Third-party owned and operated

� Standardization

� Centralization

� Security

� Internal network


Cloud computing is more than the sum of the parts…

Virtualization Standardization Automation Self Service+ + +

Cloud Computing

With

� Enables flexibility

� Increase utilization

� Energy efficient

� Soft configuration

� Infrastructure abstraction

Without

� Physically constrained

� Capital intensive

� Hard configuration

� Linked to PO process

With

� Simplification

� Few configurations

� Enables automation

� Easier support

Without

� Physically constrained

� Many configurations

With

� Low human involvement

� Rapid deployment & mgt

� Repeatable configuration

� Improves compliance

Without

� Manually intensive

� Skill dependent

� Error prone

� Costly

With

� User in control

� Cost and usage choices

� Increased visibility

� IT/Business alignment

Without

� Dependency of availability of data centre staff

� Lack of awareness


13%

41%21%

28%38%

21%

Today 3 yrs

Nearly half (48%) of CIOs surveyed evaluate cloud options first, over traditional IT approaches, before making any new IT investments

Cloud is widely recognized as an increasingly important technology;adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly in the coming years

Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders; Q4. Which of the following most accurately describes your organisation’s level of cloud technology adoption today and which do you expect will best describe it in three years? Sizing the cloud , Forrester Research, April 21, 2011; http://www.cio.com/article/684338/Survey_CIOs_Are_Putting_the_Cloud_First

Piloting

Adopting

SubstantiallyImplemented

+215%

+33%

72%

91%

What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption?

% of Respondents

The Global Cloud Computing Market is Forecast to Grow 22% per year through 2020

$0B

$50B

$100B

$150B

$200B

$250B

2011 2015 2020

$241B

$41B

$150B

Source: Sizing the cloud, Forrester Research, Inc., April 21, 2011


14% 10%5%

21%22% 34%

32%44%

43%

<$1B $1B - $20B >$20B

Piloting

Adopting

SubstantiallyImplemented

67%

76%82%

Company Annual Revenues

Today, at least two thirds of companies of all sizes are actively either experimenting with or implementing cloud

Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders, Q4, n=363

What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption?% of Respondents; Today


IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control…

…while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified,self-service experience and new service capabilities.

of CIOs plan to use cloud—up from 33% two years ago.

of business executives believe cloudenables business transformation and leaner, faster, more agile processes.

2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 2010

Eff

icie

ncy

Tra

nsfo

rmati

on

IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons.


Value delivered

Change management

Test provisioning

Install database

Install of operating system

Provisioning environment

Design and deploy business applications

From traditional To cloud

Months

Weeks

1 day

1 day

▄

Months

Days or hours

20 minutes

12 minutes

30–60 minutes

51% cost savings

Days/Weeks

“Our commitment to informed decision making led us to consider private cloud

delivery of Cognos via System z, which is the enabling foundation that makes

possible +$20M savings over 5 years.”

– IBM Office of the CIO

IT benefits from Cloud Computing are real


Be

ne

fit

CostHigh

High IT Provider Relationship Profile

Provider researches,

recommends and implements

technology to enable quantum

leap in business capability

Utility

Commodity

Provider works with others to develop a

service and provide resources/skills

necessary to support the service

Provider of a quality service at a cost equal to or

lower than the competition

Provider of an adequate service at a cost lower

than the competition

Partner

Enabler

There are six typical steps to getting started with Cloud“IBM Cloud Assessment Workshop”

Analyze Workloads Determine DeliveryModels

E-Mail, Collaboration

SoftwareDevelopment

Test and Pre-Production

DataIntensive

Processing

Database ERP

Enterprise

Private Public

Hybrid

Trad

IT

Assess Risks

Determine ROI

1 2 3

4 5 6

Understand Strategic Direction

Build Roadmaps

En

terp

ris

eA

rch

ite

ctu

re

Phase 2Phase 2

Phase 3Phase 3

Phase 4Phase 4

Phase 1Phase 1

Bus iness Arc hit ect ureAlignment

D ata Model

Metadata

Informat ion Sys temsArchitecture

Define t he informati on integration architec ture

Info

rmat

ion

Inte

gra

tio

n I nformation Transformation

Ma

ste

r D

ata

Man

agem

en

t

I nf ormation Plac ement& Structure

Optimize data & c ontent pl acement and s truct ure across all

LOBs & technology silos

Extend the Informat ion Integrat ion Architecture f or placement &

s truct ure optimization

D oc ument busines s directi ons and I T’s ali gnment wit h t hem,

ac ross t he ent erpr ise

Provide a baseline of agreement by educating all stakeholders on t he

fundamentals of Ent erpr ise Archi tec ture

Integrate informat ion transf ormation with common met adat a and data

cl eans ing serv ices

Extend the inf ormation integration architecture across the

organization & tec hnol ogies

Int egrate data plac ement with the I nf ormation Lif ecy cle Management

implementation

Devel op and implement enterprise-wide business architecture in itiatives

As sess t he existi ng IS A rchitecture f or a select ed set of LOBs

Dev elop an overall IS enterpris e archit ec ture framework t o guide the enterpri se

Develop and execut e an IS Architecture roadmap ac ross the ent erpr ise

Develop met adat a t ec hnical st rategyPilot Metadata int egration with key t ools and

applicationsDocument business gl oss ary into met adata

repos itory for s ome LOBs

Est ablish a cros s-f unctional I nformation Archi tec ture (D at a Adminis tration) t eam

Establi sh data entit y naming s tandardsDefine and document common semant ics (business glos sary) across LOBs f or some

s ubjec t areas

Analyze Infrastructure Gaps

01. IT Host Resources

03. IT Storage Resources

04. IT Network Resources

02. IT Distr ibuted Resources

Exploratory DepartmentalEnterprise Integration

Exclusive Open

Scope of services

Assess current state Determine future stateIdentify required

capabili ties and initiativesDevelop roadmaps

01. IT Host Resources

03. IT Storage Resources

04. IT Network Resources

02. IT Distr ibuted Resources

Exploratory DepartmentalEnterprise Integration

Exclusive Open

Scope of services

Assess current state Determine future stateIdentify required

capabili ties and initiativesDevelop roadmaps


No

Yes E

str

até

gia

No Yes

Criticidade

Nivel 3 Nivel 1

Nivel 2Nivel 4

Nível 4 Nível 3 Nível 2 Nível 1

Classe da Aplicação Não estratégica ou crítica Estratégica mas não crítica Alta criticidade Chave - Mais crítica

Distribuição 55% 20% 20% 5%

Disponibilidade Menor que95%

Médio95-98.5%

Alto98.5-99.7%

Muito Alto

Perfil de dados Non-sensitive or public Apenas uso interno Confidencial da empresa Informações pessoais

Suporte Melhor suporte Horas de Negócios 24*7 24*7

Monitoração Sem monitoração Servidor básico Infraestrutura Nível de Aplicação

� A maioria dos clientes possuem nível de criticidade 4 e relativamente poucas aplicações em nível 1;

� Começe migrando suas aplicações do nível 4 para o ambiente de Cloud movendo primeiro as aplicações de menor risco;

� Utilize a expertise adquirida no primeiro momento para migrar aplicações de níveis mais estratégicos.

Segmentação do portfolio em níveis de criticidade


Software como Serviço

SaaS Lotus Live/ Tivoli Live/

Blueworks Live/ Rational

IBM Smart Cloud

Enterprise

Smart Business

Development and

Test Cloud

Smart Business

Desktop Cloud

IBM Cloud Service

Provider Platform

Server Cloud /

WebSphere

Cloudburst / Cast Iron

Analytics Colaboração/

Monitoração /

Segurança / BPM

Desenvolvimentoe Teste

Desktop e

Dispositivos

Infra-estrutura

(compute / storage

/ Integração)

Business

Services

Smart Analytics SystemPowered by Infosphere

Smart Analytics

AcceleratorPowered by Infosphere

IBM Cloud Quick

Start / Server /

Storage

Smart Business

Desktop Cloud

IBM Cloud Service

Provider Platform

IBM Cloud Service

Provider Platform

Security Services /

Blueworks Live /

Networking

Modelo de Serviço

e mais… Consultoria, Workshops, Arquitetura de Referência para desenvolvimento Cloud Computing

Portfolio IBM

Plataforma como Serviço

PaaS

Infra como Serviço

IaaS IBM Managed

Security Services



17

1. Cloud Computing

2. Social Business




O que acontece na Internet em apenas 1 minuto!


200 mi

E se o Facebook fosse um país?

800mi


Crescimento das Midias Sociais

Social NetworksFacebook, YouTube

Informational / Services

Yahoo, MSN, Google

Yahoo MSN Google YouTube Facebook

% o

f T

ime S

pent,

Worldw

ide


English gets 1.000.000 words on Wednesday, site saysJune 10, 2009 -- Updated 1328 GMT

(2128 HKT)

New English words

Web 2.0: the second generation of the Internet

n00b: a new or inexperienced user,

usually with technology

Jai Ho: an exclamation of victory, from Hindi

slumdog: an unkind term for a person who lives in a slum

cloud computing: services delivered via the Internet

carbon neutral: an activity that doesn't produce heat-trapping carbon emissions

Source: Global Language Monitor june 2009

2009

Which is the real world?


Quem é esta geração digital?

� Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho. São early adopters por natureza.

� Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet como laboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento.

�Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular, MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)


Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way business is being conducted

28

“A Social Business isn't just a company that has a Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of collaboration and community throughout its organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM

“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent of the world’s population, social computing is in its next phase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate social software capabilities throughout their enterprise systems.” – Gartner

“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change that is being driven by the social customer, empowered employees, and a convergence of new technical capabilities. Businesses are deploying and using new social tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC

Defined

“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversibly redefining what it means to be a highly productive organization” – Gartner


Mobile explosion

“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide”

Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413

Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web

Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratioof 4-1

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratioof 4-1


UMA NOVA GERAÇÃO


UMA NOVA FAMÍLIA

A NOVA CASA

O NOVO PAI

A NOVA MÃE

O NOVO FILHO


UM NOVO AMBIENTE DE TRABALHO

A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃOO NOVO CHEFEO NOVO ESCRITÓRIOA GLOBALIZAÇÃO


Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring new application solutions written just for mobile

36

“Mobile business is the number one IT issue pre-occupying the minds of IT professionals in Asia/Pacific, according to IDC's CIO Innovation Survey 2011. ” – IDC

“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

“By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps. ” – Gartner

New Strategies / Solutions Needed


The Consumerization trend is all about employees wanting to use the same technologies for business as they use in their personal lives.

37

“Employees are behaving more like consumers, demanding a wider choice of devices, exploiting consumer devices and applications from app stores, and adopting new strategies such as “bring your own” IT. As a result, the distinctions between a person's role as an employee and as a consumer are more blurred than ever. ” – Gartner

“You can blame the iPhone, Salesforce.com, and Facebook, but the truth is that business itself has driven the shift to employee-directed tech” – InfoWorld

• Tablets• Smartphones• App Stores• 4G • Social Media• Social Business • Gaming• Desktop Virtualization• Cloud Services• Unified Communications• Data Access• File Sharing

“The consumerization of IT—the influence that personal devices, the app store paradigm, gaming, social tools and more have on the expectations of employees and customers for workplace tools and innovation—is on a trajectory of blazing growth.'” – IDG

Press Release

It’s more than “Bring Your Own Device”Technologies Impacted by

Consumerization



38

1. Cloud Computing

2. Social Business




Competing on Analytics with Big data is big news

39


Volume of Digital DataEvery day, 15 petabytes of new information are being generated. This is 8x more than the information in all U.S. libraries.


Variety of InformationToday, 80% of new data growth is unstructured content, generated largely by email, with increasing contribution by documents, images, and video and audio

38% of email archiving decisions receive input from a C-level executive and 23% from legal/compliance professional


The Big Data trend presents a huge challenge (and opportunity) for Information Management professionals

42

“Variety – Big data extends beyond structured data, including unstructured data of all varieties: text, audio, video, click streams, log files and more.Velocity – Often time-sensitive, big data must be used as it is streaming in to the enterprise in order to maximize its value to the business.Volume – Big data comes in one size: large. Enterprises are awash with data, easily amassing terabytes and even petabytes of information.” – IBM

“The ideal enterprise data warehouse has been envisaged as a centralized repository for 25 years, but the time has come for a new type of warehouse to handle "big data." This "logical data warehouse" demands radical realignment of practices and a hybrid architecture of repositories and services” – Gartner

“Clearly, the big data revolution is fostering a powerful new type of data science. Having more comprehensive data sets at our disposal will enable more fine-grained long-tail analysis, microsegmentation, next best action, customer experience optimization, and digital marketing applications”– Forrester

Characteristics of Big Data

A New Era of Information Management


Up to 10,000 Times larger

Up to 10,000 times faster

Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence

Da

ta S

ca

le

Data

Scale

yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs

Exa

Peta

Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time

Data in Motion

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics

Telco Promotions

100,000 records/sec, 6B/day

10 ms/decision

270TB for Deep Analytics

DeepQA

100s GB for Deep Analytics

3 sec/decision

Smart Traffic

250K GPS probes/sec

630K segments/sec

2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles

Homeland Security

600,000 records/sec, 50B/day

1-2 ms/decision

320TB for Deep Analytics


Successful implementation of analytics capabilities provide value and can help companies create a competitive advantage

44

Source: The New Intelligent Enterprise, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value analytics research partnership. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2011.

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

How Organizations Use Analytics Analytics & Competitive Advantage

“Leaders of the smartest organizations have moved past “overwhelmed” and are already capitalizing on increased information richness and analytics to gain measurable competitive advantage.” – MIT


Analytics is a major trend that is impacting all business processes and transforming the way decisions are made

45

Source: Forrester

From To

Offline / Back office Embedded / Realtime

Detailed Reports Dashboards

Historical Predictive

Structured Unstructured

Behind Firewall Cloud / Mobile

“In 2011 and 2012, analytics will increasingly focus on decisions and collaboration. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other anlytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.” - Gartner

Trends in Analytics Types of Analytics

“What is becoming clearer is that the real value from 'Big Data' will be derived from the high-end analytics, predominantly using data mining, statistics, optimization and forecasting type of capabilities to proactively turn this data into intelligence to drive business benefits and better decision making capabilities” – IDC


Traditional approaches are broken: Big data overwhelms traditional solutions


Let’s simplify this mess …


… and bring analytics into the warehouse


What is an Appliance?

� Dedicated device

� Optimized for purpose

� Complete solution

� Standard interfaces

� Easy installation

� Easy operation

� Easy management

� Easy support

� Low cost


MensagensFinais


IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“

IT Strategy for the next decade: an evolution of today‘s focus topics

VirtualizationConsolidation

Cloud

AutomationAutomationAutomationAutomation

SOA

on demand

Service Management

Service QualityCyber CrimePrevention

Big Data

Analytics

Operational Excellence

MobilityCollaborationCollaborationCollaborationCollaboration

Open Source Social MediaData CenterOptimization

Appliances

Smart Devices

Cost Pressure

DataManagement

IT Security

...

...

© 2012 IBM Corporation54 54

Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers

Computing Everywhereand in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Futu

re

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

QuantumComputing

Bio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work andLeisure

Biology

Computing without Programming

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann Architectures

© 2012 IBM Corporation55 55

Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers

Computing Everywhereand in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Futu

re

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

QuantumComputing

Bio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work andLeisure

Biology

Computing without a Program

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann ArchitecturesIT Becomes Invisible Cognitive IT


Futuro se torna passado rapidamente!

© 2012 IBM Corporation, 2012

Obrigado pela Atenção

Cezar [email protected]/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurionwww.computingonclouds.wordpress.comwww.debatendobigdata.wordpress.com@ctaurionFacebook, Linkedin, BranchOut

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