Partisanship and Group Voting
POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith
Office Hours
• When– Today- 11-2– Friday 10-12– And by appointment
• Doyle 226B
Learning Outcomes I
• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
Readings
• Chapter 4: Partisans and Partisan Change (Flanigan)
• Chapter 5: Social Characteristics of Partisans and Independents (Flanigan)
Partisanship
Still the biggest factor in vote choice
The Evolution of the American Party System
• Comes out of the New Deal
• Focuses on the Role of Government
• Does not try to represent specific social classes
Why American Parties are Unique
• Non Ideological
• Not Issue Based
• Not Class Based
Why Not issue Based?
• Many Issues are Unimportant
• We adopt issues based on partisanship, not the other way around
• The Parties do not take clear positions on many issues.
The Goal of American Parties
THE SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF PARTISAN GROUPS
Winning by getting group votes
About Partisans
• Vote More
• Participate in other forms of politics
• Vote your way
• But who are they?
For Groups to Matter
• It has to be big
• It has to come out and vote
• It has to be Loyal
Neither Party Can Rely on a single group
• Both Parties are Heterogeneous
• Both Parties Must court independents
• Both parties move around the spectrum to gain votes.
The Roosevelt/New Deal Coalition
• The Democratic Key To Success- 1932-1964
• This Breaks apart over time
Group Voting Today
• For Most Americans No Single social or economic characteristic is a good predictor of Partisanship or voting (two exceptions)
• The Rise of cross-cutting Factors
Religion
• Americans tend to be more religious than other Western nations.
• We belong to churches and go more than other nations
The Change in Religion as a predictor
• There are many more religious divisions
• There is an increase in seculars/non-religious
• Some Religions are very politically active
Jewish Voters
• The Exception to the Rule
• Share many Republican characteristics, but are Democratic
• More liberal than other groups, except on Israel policy
• Meet all 3 criteria in 2 states
Catholics
• Still Trend Democratic
• The Result of political socialization
• Less homogenous, hence less predictable
Protestants
Evangelical• Tend to be more
Conservative, and more Republican
• More Rural, Poorer, and Southern
• More focused on Social Issues
Main Line• Examples: Episcopalians,
Lutherans, Methodists, Presbyterians
• Declining in number, influence and importance
• Difficult to Gauge
The Religion Gap
REGIONNot as exciting as it once was
Why Region is important
• It all goes back to Political Socialization
• We get basic economic and social traits based where live
• Region is South vs. Non-South in America
The Solid South
• A key component of the Roosevelt coalition– 11 states of the Confederacy Provided• 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916• 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932• 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960• 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976
– Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates- they could spend time in battleground states
Why Region is not as Important
• Mobility
• Communications
• Irrigation and Air Conditioning
Even the South is Less Distinct
• It is still the most distinct
• Out-Migration of African Americans
• More industrialized
• Influx of Hispanic Voters
SOCIAL CLASSNot That Important
Why not social class
• The shared belief in equality of opportunity
• We have never had an appreciable socialist movement
• People identify with other groups before class
Measuring Social Class
• We ask people which class they belong to– We are very likely to say middle class
• Within Social classes there are great variations in income
• Our partisanship doesn’t change with rising or lowering class.
Social Class and Partisanship
Republicans• Do better with poor whites in
the South
• Do better with Upper Middle Class voters
• Historically have done better with Middle Class voters
Democrats• Do better with poor and
working class
• Do better with the very wealthiest
• Do better with Union Members
AGEThere is a Difference
Not as Big a Deal
• Age is not as important as other factors in determining partisanship
• Young voters tend to be less interested in the system
• Young voters tend to be more Democratic
RACE AND ETHNICITY
The American Electorate
• Race is more important than class
• African Americans form a political self-conscious group. And Identify with the Democratic Party
African American Turnout
• This has increased since the 1960’s
• African Americans are heavily Democratic
• Important swing voters in battleground states
Hispanic Voters
• The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity
• Increasingly Democratic since 2000
• Key in CO, FL, NM