PathwaysProject:TransitioningtoCarbonNeutralityintheU.S.
JimWilliams,UniversityofSanFranciscoRyanJones,BenHaley,JamilFarbes,EvolvedEnergyResearch
GraceWu,NCEASErinMayfield,PrincetonUniversityMargaretS.Torn,BerkeleyLab
U.S.DeepDecarbonizationPathwaysProject
January23,2020
SDSNUSA
Carbonneutralitybymid-century
Remainingbelow1.5°Crequiresreachingcarbonneutralitygloballybyabout2050
DRAFTRESULTS
Questions
ToachievecarbonneutralityintheU.S.by2050:Ø Whatchangesininfrastructurearerequired?
Ø Whatisthecostofdifferentpathways?
Ø Whatarethekeychallenges?
Ø Whatpoliciesareneeded?
DRAFTRESULTS
PathwaysProject
Ø WhitepaperonpathwaystocarbonneutralityintheUnitedStatesbymid-century
Ø AnalysisandpolicyrecommendationsthatadddepthandrealismtoGreenNewDealconcept
Ø Chaptersoninfrastructure,federalpolicy,regionaltransitions,jobs,landuse
Ø AimedatfederalandstatepolicyaudiencesØ InternalSDSNdraftinFebruary,publicreleaseinMarch
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FiveTransitions
Pathwaysprojectexaminesfivetransitionsentailedinreachingcarbonneutrality:
Ø InfrastructureØ Economy
Ø LanduseØ Jobs/communities
Ø Policyprocesses
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InfrastructureTransition
Ø 4pillars:(1)energyefficiency(2)electrification(3)electricitydecarbonization(4)carboncapture
Ø Achievedbyrapid,large-scalebuildoutofefficient,lowcarboninfrastructuretoreplaceexisting
Ø Theleast-costcarbon-neutralenergysystemisorganizedaroundrenewableelectricity
Ø Tradeoffsamongtechnologychoices,landuse,jobs,socialprioritiesmoreimportantthancostperse
Ø Physicalactionsrequiredovernext10yearsarewell-understoodandconsistentacrosspathways
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EconomicTransition
Ø Carbonneutralityinenergyandindustryby2050isachievableatanetcostof0.2%ofGDP
Ø Energyspendingas%ofGDPonlowendofhistoricalrange,investmentrequirementsnotlargeforU.S.
Ø Changesingrosseconomicflowsarelarge,~$1Tperyearlessonfossilfuels,moreoninfrastructure
Ø Therearewinnersandlosersamongbusinesses,workers,andcommunities
Ø Themostchallengingpartoftheeconomictransitionispoliticaleconomy,notcostorfinance
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Jobs/CommunitiesTransition
Ø Decarbonizationwillsupportjobsovermultipledecadesandacrossmanysectorsandregions.
Ø Phasingoutfossilfuelswillresultinjoblossesinmanyindustries,occupations,andregions
Ø Ruralcommunitiesdependentonextractionwillbemostaffected
Ø Planning,policies,andinstitutionalsupportforalabortransitionthatexplicitlyaccountsforsocialequityarerequiredforrapiddecarbonization
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LandUseTransition
Ø Reachingcarbonneutralityneedslandinthreeways:siting,biomass,andcarbonsink
Ø Landrequirementsforwind,solar,andtransmissionsitingarelargeàcanbebottleneckifhandledpoorly
Ø Regionalcoordinationenableslow-cost,low-impactrenewableenergydevelopment(vs.state-as-island)
Ø Regionalenergysolutionsrequireearly,proactivelanduseplanning,esp.transmission
Ø Integratedland-energy-climateplanningcanidentifydevelopmentopportunitiesthatavoidlanduseconflicts
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Policy-ProcessTransition
Ø Carbonneutralpathwaysindicateneedforpolicyprocessesthatdonotcurrentlyexist
Ø Planningandcoordinationacrossdecades,sectors,geographies,andjurisdictionallevels
Ø Short-termactionsinagivenarenainformedbylong-termsystemview,andvice-versa
Ø Stakeholderengagementincreased,informedbyrealistic,rigorous,ongoinganalysis
DRAFTRESULTS
INFRASTRUCTUREANDECONOMYTRANSITION
ResearchFocus
Energyandindustrial(E&I)CO2Ø fromfossilfuelsusedforenergyandfeedstocks
Ø morethan80%ofcurrentUSGHGemissions
Ø notincludinglandCsink,non-CO2GHGs
Howwouldacarbonneutralsystemwork?Ø reliabilityinhighrenewableselectricitysystem
Ø productionoflowcarbonfuelsØ decarbonizingindustry,freighttransport,aviationØ integratingCCUSwithenergysystem
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Tools
Energysystemmodelandscenarioanalysistool
Optimalcapacityexpansionmodelforelectricityandfuels
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Scenarios
ReferencecasebasedonAnnualEnergyOutlookØ DOE’sBAUprojectionofpopulation,GDP,energyservicedemandusedinallscenarios
CentralcaseØ least-costpathwaytocarbonneutrality
CostsensitivitiesØ high/lowfossilfuelprices,technologycosts
ConstrainedcasesØ limitsonland,biomass,consumeradoptionratesØ 100%renewableprimaryenergy,highconservationØ netnegativeemissions(-500MtCO2in2050)
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EmissionsTrajectory Annual CO2 Cumulative CO2 2020-2050
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FourPillarsofNetZeroSystemU.S.Benchmarks
95%reductioninemissionsintensity
40%reductioninper-capitafinalenergydemand
300%increaseinshareofenergyfromelectricity
400MMT+carboncaptureanduse/storage
ElectricityDecarbonization EnergyEfficiency Electrification CarbonCapture
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CurrentEnergySystem
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CentralCase,LowFossilFuelPrice(2050)
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100%RenewablePrimaryEnergy(2050)
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InfrastructureTransition
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NetCost(CentralCase)
Netsystemcost=0.2%ofGDP- largechangeingrosscosts- spend$850Blessonfossilfuels- spend$925Bmoreontechnology
202020352050
1000B
800B
600B
400B
200B
0
-200B
-400B
-600B
-800B
-1000B
2018$USD
Bio-andsyntheticfuels
Demand-sidecosts
Oilandrefinedproducts
Naturalgas
Electricitysystem
DRAFTRESULTS
NetCostAcrossScenarios
CostofconstrainedcasesishigherthancentralcaseØ ifaresourceislimited,highercost
substitutesarerequiredØ 100%renewableprimaryenergy=~0.8%
ofGDPØ netnegativecase<0.5%GDP
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Netcost(%ofG
DP)
100%renewable
Central
202020352050 DRAFTRESULTS
HistoricalEnergySpendingas%GDP
Historical Modeled
1980200020202040
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Energysystemcost(%ofG
DP)
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PathwayChoicesandSocietalTradeoffs
Ø limitedlandandbiomassàmorenaturalgasandcarbonsequestration,theonlycasewherenuclearexpansioniseconomic
Ø delayedelectrificationàgreateruseofelectricfuels,biofuels,andland
Ø 100%primaryREàhighestdemandforelectricfuels,biofuels,andland
Ø highconservationcaseàlessinfrastructureandland,requiresmajorbehaviorchange
DRAFTRESULTS
RequiredActionsinthisDecade
Rapidrampuptoreach2030benchmarksØ Solarandwindcapacity:3.5xcurrentØ Coalgeneration:<1%oftotalgenerationØ Electriclightdutyvehicles:>50%ofsalesØ Electricmediumdutyvehicles:>40%ofsalesØ Electricheavydutyvehicles:>30%ofsalesØ Heatpumpsinbuildings:>60%ofsalesØ Storage:>20GWbatteriesØ NonewoilandgastransportfacilitiesØ MaintainexistingnuclearfleettoextentfeasibleØ Maintaingasgeneratingcapacityatcurrentlevel
DRAFTRESULTS
EXTRASLIDES
TotalCO2ein2050DependsonLandSink,Non-CO2GHGMitigation
Scenario E&ICO2(Mt) HighCO2e(Mt) LowCO2e(Mt)Central 0 500 0
Limitedland 0 500 0
Delayedelectrification 0 500 0
Lowdemand 0 500 0
100%RE -350 150 -350
Netnegative -500 0 -500
Landsinkrange:-750Mt(current)to-1125Mt(50%improvement)Non-CO2GHGs:1250Mt(current)to1125Mt(10%improvement)
DRAFTRESULTS
InfrastructureTransitionandEmissionsLightdutyvehicleexample
Sales Stock Energy Emissions
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ElectricityBalancing:ThermalGenerationforReliableCapacity
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ElectricityBalancing:Transmission,EnergyStorage,FlexibleLoads
OtherbalancingresourcesØ renewablecurtailmentØ 80%increaseininter-regionaltransmissioncapacityØ 200GWofbatteriesfordiurnalbalancingØ largeindustrialflexibleloads,e.g.electricfuelproduction,dualfuelboilers
Non-ThermalNetLoadBalancingResourcesResidualLoadAprilAugustDecemberAprilAugustDecemberAprilAugustDecember
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
Hour1241241241241241241241241
AverageGWh
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FuelsAbout60%offinalenergycanbeelectrified.Theremaining40%mustbemetwithfuels.
CCS
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CarbonCaptureUtilization&Storage(CCUS)
Carboncaptureisanecessarycomplement(notalternative)todecarbonizationDRAFTRESULTS
RequiredActionsinthisDecade,2
• R&D,pilots,incentivesforcommercializationoftechnologiesneededinbulkpost-2030– freighttransport,aviation,newindustrialprocesses,hydrogen&syntheticfuels,advancedbiofuels,CCUS
• Addressscale-upchallengeswealreadyanticipate– wholesaleelectricitymarketdesigntosupportlowcapacity-factorthermalgeneration,flexibleloads
– incentivesforcustomeradoption,especiallyEVsandheatpumps
– landuseplanningtoaddresscompetingprioritiesforsiting,bioenergy,carbonsink,andexistinguses
DRAFTRESULTS
