Download - PEORIA Project Report 4: Kasich Rising
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KASICH RISING (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CONVERSATION)
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN, AND DATA SCIENTIST JAMIE CHANDLER
RELEASE DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2015
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Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of
the presidential candidates and their campaign messages.
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PART ONE
Presidential Debate Chatter
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Candidates(Descending order)
Total MentionsSept. 21 – Nov. 1
All Current Candidates
(share of voice, in %)
Republicans Only (share of voice,
in %)
Donald Trump 9,096,900 35.6 54.0Hillary Clinton 4,660,264 18.2 --Bernie Sanders 3,891,131 15.2 --Ben Carson 1,913,895 7.5 11.4Ted Cruz 1,555,251 6.1 9.2Jeb Bush 1,299,325 5.1 7.7Marco Rubio 917,575 3.6 5.4John Kasich 409,393 1.6 2.4Mike Huckabee 332,727 1.3 2.0Chris Christie 327,396 1.3 1.9Carly Fiorina 266,054 1.0 1.6Rand Paul 263,416 1.0 1.6Martin O’Malley 156,255 0.6 --Lindsey Graham 142,727 0.6 0.8Bobby Jindal 137,574 0.5 0.8Rick Santorum 131,420 0.5 0.8George Pataki 43,045 0.2 0.3
CONVERSATION LEADERS
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
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TRUMP STILL DOMINATES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
All Candidates Share of Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
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CLINTON & TRUMP?
54%
11%
9%
8%
5%
2%2%
2%2% 2%1%1%1%0%
Share of Republican Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Cruz Bush Rubio Kasich Huckabee
Christie Fiorina Paul Graham Jindal Santorum Pataki
46%
39%
2%
4%
2%
7%
Share of Democratic Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Note: In this and many of the following analyses, we added Biden into the Democratic field because his potential candidacy was a much discussed possibility.
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DEMOCRATIC TIME SERIES
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
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DEMOCRATIC CONVERSATION
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Total Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Total Mentions During/After DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015
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DEMOCRATIC NET SENTIMENT
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Net Sentiment of Democratic Candidates Mentions (%)
Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/12) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/13-11/1)
Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts (“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure.
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REPUBLICAN TIME SERIES
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
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REPUBLICAN CONVERSATION
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
Total Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015
Undercard Debaters
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
375,000
450,000
Total Mentions During/After DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015
Undercard Debaters
“Off the Chart”
Total Mentions
Sept. 21 – Oct. 27
Total MentionsOct. 28 –
Nov. 1
Donald Trump 8,068,885 1,028,015
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REPUBLICAN NET SENTIMENT
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Net Sentiment of Republican Candidates Mentions (%)
Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/27) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/28-11/1)
Undercard Debaters
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DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
Candidates Mainstream Media
Sept. 21 – Nov. 1
Social Media
Sept. 21 –
Nov. 1
Hillary Clinton 511,865 4,148,399
Bernie Sanders 249,741 3,641,490
Martin O’Malley 71,707 84,548
Jim Webb 54,482 365,885
Lincoln Chafee 47,796 183,466
Joe Biden* 212,240 520,748
0
750,000
1,500,000
2,250,000
3,000,000
3,750,000
4,500,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Tota
l Men
tions
Total Media MentionsSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
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DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
45%
22%
6%
5%
4%
18%
Mainstream Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
46%
41%
1%4%
2%6%
Social Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
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DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Tota
l Men
tions
Media Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Tota
l Men
tions
Media Mentions During/After DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
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REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
Candidates Mainstream Media
Sept. 21 – Nov. 1
Social Media
Sept. 21 – Nov. 1
Donald Trump 502,686 8,594,221
Ben Carson 224,731 1,689,170
Jeb Bush 198,198 1,101,138
Marco Rubio 149,926 767,662
Ted Cruz 108,506 1,446,749
Carly Fiorina 90,061 175,993
Chris Christie 78,952 248,453
John Kasich 59,578 349,813
Rand Paul 58,700 204,722
Mike Huckabee 43,637 289,093
Lindsey Graham 38,843 35,511
Bobby Jindal 17,005 33,440
Rick Santorum 31,779 20,689
George Pataki 6,858 13,594
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
Tota
l Men
tions
Total Media MentionsSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
Trump: Off the chart again .
Undercard Debaters
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REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
33%
15%13%
10%
7%
6%
5%
4%4% 3%
Mainstream Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz
Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee
58%
11%
8%
5%
10%
1%2%2%1%2%
Social Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz
Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee
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REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
Tota
l Men
tions
Media Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Tota
l Men
tions
Media Mentions During/After DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
Undercard Debaters
Undercard Debaters
“Off the Charts”
Mainstream Media
Sept. 21 – Oct. 27
Social Media
Sept. 21 – Oct. 27
Mainstream Media
Oct. 28 – Nov. 1
Social Media
Oct. 28 – Nov. 1
Donald Trump 435,134 7,633,758 67,552 960,463
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THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS
52%
28%
14%
1%3% 2%
Democratic Share of Voice (%)October 19 - 25, 2015
Clinton Sanders Biden O'Malley Webb Chafee
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THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RT)
Social Media During the WeekOctober 19 - October 25, 2015
Clinton Sanders
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CLINTON’S TOP 3 TWEETS DURING HEARINGS
1,687 Retweets 659 Retweets 445 Retweets
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TOP GOP RESPONSES TO BENGHAZI HEARINGS
#1#3
Jeb Bush92 Retweets
#1#1
Donald Trump1,489 Retweets
#1#5
Chris Christie22 Retweets
#1#2
Mike Huckabee130 Retweets
#1#4
Rand Paul70 Retweets
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PART TWO
Social media activity by the candidates and their
campaigns during the conservational events of
the period.
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TRUMP ON TOP?ECHO CONVERSION RATES
Candidates (in descending order)
Echo Conversion (total number of website shares/total number of social media mentions, measured in % for Sept.21-Nov.1, 2015)
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 8.5
Fiorina 5.3
Clinton 1.6
Paul 1.5
Sanders 1.0
O'Malley 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rubio 0.8
Carson 0.6
Bush 0.5
Christie 0.08
Trump 0.05
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Social Media Mentions & Website SharesSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015
Social Media Mentions Website Shares
Again, Trump is “off the chart.” His social media mentions were over 8.5M, but his website shares were 4,517 – he comes in last on this measure.
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DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee
Social Media Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee
Social Media During/Post DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
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CNN DEBATE: DEMOCRATS TOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)
#1Bernie
Sanders4,570
Retweets
#1#2
Hillary Clinton3,109
Retweets
#1#3
Martin O’Malley
136 Retweets
#4Jim Webb
69 Retweets
#5Lincoln Chafee69 Retweets
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HUCKABEE LIVE-TROLLS DEMOCRATIC DEBATE
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TOP 3 RETWEETED GOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)
#2Donald Trump5,759
Retweets
#1Donald Trump17,378
Retweets
#3Donald Trump4,699
Retweets
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REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Social Media Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Social Media During/Post DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
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KASICH WORKS HIS NETWORK
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CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)
#1#1
Donald Trump3,215
Retweets#1
#3Ben Carson
2,019 Retweets
#1#4
Ted Cruz1,585
Retweets
#1#2
Marco Rubio3,103
Retweets
#1#5
Jeb Bush1,422
Retweets
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#1#10
John Kasich85 Retweets
#1#9
Mike Huckabee
156 Retweets
#1#8
Chris Christie
357 Retweets
#1#7
Carly Fiorina432
Retweets
#1#6
Rand Paul691
Retweets
CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)
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#1Hillary Clinton
4,097 Retweets
#1#2
Bernie Sanders3,396
Retweets
#1#3
Hillary Clinton3,393
Retweets
TOP 3 RETWEETED DEMOCRATS RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)
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QUESTIONS?Graduate School of Political Management
@GSPMGWUJohn BrandtMedia [email protected]
Michael Cornfield Lara BrownAssociate Professor Associate [email protected]
Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs
Pete Eskew D.J. WaldowHead of East Coast Sales Director of [email protected] [email protected]