Focused Energy Summit 2014 1April 13, 2023
FOCUSED ENERGY SUMMIT 2014
Charlie Gay
September 25, 2014
Perfect Timing: The Upcoming Wave of Opportunities for Residential PV Installers
Focused Energy Summit 2014 2April 13, 2023
Agenda / Overview
• Unprecedented U.S. Utility Changes
• Growth in Residential Rooftop PV
• Opportunities for Expanding Customer Engagement
• Collaborating to Win• Financing• Software Optimization • Hardware Optimization
• A New Product Approach: Continuously Customizable Optimization
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
500 TWh / yr
The World is Using More and More Electricity
Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
11,300
12,600
14,500
17,300
22,600
20,300
25,400 TWh
Global electricity demand doubling between 1995 and 2020 ~2-3% per year
Focused Energy Summit 2014 4April 13, 2023
The Old World Electric Utility
Generation Transmission Distribution End Customers
Focused Energy Summit 2014 5April 13, 2023
The Utility WorldYesterday, Today & Tomorrow
In the mainland US (outside of California), no utility has had their financial integrity threatened by the amount of solar that their customers have installed.
Focused Energy Summit 2014 6April 13, 2023
California System
Focused Energy Summit 2014 7April 13, 2023
The “Duck”Curve
Focused Energy Summit 2014 8April 13, 2023
The Emerging Electric Utility
Generation Transmission Distribution End Customers
DemandResponse
Make money with your smart phone
$$$$
Focused Energy Summit 2014 9April 13, 2023
Agenda / Overview
• Unprecedented U.S. Utility Changes
• Growth in Residential Rooftop PV
• Opportunities for Expanding Customer Engagement
• Collaborating to Win• Financing• Software Optimization• Hardware Optimization
• A New Product Approach : Continuously Customizable Optimization
Focused Energy Summit 2014 10April 13, 2023
2013 Average Prices for Residential Electricity
US Average Increase2013-2014 = 3.2%
Focused Energy Summit 2014 11April 13, 2023
By 2017 More Than ½ of Residential Rooftop PV Can be Less Than the Retail Price of Electricity
Source: UCSUSA.org/solarrevolution
The residential market is immense: In the U.S. there are more than 90 million single family homes and as many as 50 million more households in multi-family structures.
Now 1 -3 Years
4+Years
“value of solar,” based on a study conducted by Clean Power Research
Focused Energy Summit 2014 12April 13, 2023
How Much Distributed Solar Will Be Installed in 2016?
Source: GTM
Focused Energy Summit 2014 13April 13, 2023
Projected U.S. Residential PV Market Value
Focused Energy Summit 2014 14April 13, 2023
Agenda / Overview
• Unprecedented U.S. Utility Changes
• Growth in Residential Rooftop PV
• Opportunities for Expanding Customer Engagement
• Collaborating to Win• Financing• Software Optimization• Hardware Optimization
• A New Product Approach : Continuously Customizable Optimization
Focused Energy Summit 2014 15April 13, 2023
Focused Energy Summit 2014 16April 13, 2023
Wide-ranging Demographic
Why lease, when you can own?
Focused Energy Summit 2014 17April 13, 2023
Emerging New “Utilities”
Generation Transmission Distribution End Customers
New Regulatory Tools
How to allocate costs between users?How to ensure Backup generation ?How to integrate new technologies ?
Focused Energy Summit 2014 18April 13, 2023
Telecom Examples
AT&T spent $20.6 billion on new plant and equipment in 2013, leading all non-financial corporations in U.S. capital spending for the third straight year.
Focused Energy Summit 2014 19April 13, 2023
The Wild Card
Energy Information
Energy Information Merge into New Businesses
Focused Energy Summit 2014 20April 13, 2023
Granular Information and Awareness
ZIPEnergyApp can also be used in customer demonstrations to illustrate products, services and energy use patterns in similar homes and zip codes.
Focused Energy Summit 2014 21April 13, 2023
The Smart HomeThe Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
AugustEcobeeEcoFactorHaierHoneywelliDevicesiHomeKwiksetLogitachLutronNetatmoPEQPhilipsSchlageSkybellSmartThingsSylvaniaYaleZuli
Focused Energy Summit 2014 22April 13, 2023
The Smart Home : Philips LightingThe Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
Philips Hue Connected Bulbs
Focused Energy Summit 2014 23April 13, 2023
The Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
• Google nest Acquired 2014
Recent Entrants : Google
Focused Energy Summit 2014 24April 13, 2023
The Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
Recent Entrants : Apple
Focused Energy Summit 2014 25April 13, 2023
The Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
Recent Entrants :Samsung
ElectricWater Heater
Electric water heating is ~18% of U.S. residential electricity use and consumes ~12 kWh/day
Steffes uses Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform to aggregate, creating a “virtual power plant” out of networked heating units.
Focused Energy Summit 2014 26April 13, 2023
The Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
Recent Entrants : LG
Google Nest Apple HomeKit Samsung SmartThings LG HomNet
Focused Energy Summit 2014 27April 13, 2023
Added Value of PVThe Home Automation & Controls Market Will be Worth $48.02 Billion by 2018
Google Nest Apple HomeKit Samsung SmartThings LG HomNet
Distribution End Customers
Module Level Power Electronics
SmartPhone
A Lot More Than $50 Billion
Focused Energy Summit 2014 28April 13, 2023
Agenda / Overview
• Unprecedented U.S. Utility Changes
• Growth in Residential Rooftop PV
• Opportunities for Expanding Customer Engagement
• Collaborating to Win
• Financing• Software Optimization• Hardware Optimization
• A New Product Approach : Continuously Customizable Optimization
Focused Energy Summit 2014 29April 13, 2023
Focused Energy
Focused Energy Partners
Collaborating to Win
Finance
$$$
Installation
OperationsSupport
Loans• Institutional• Intermediaries• Aggregation• Referrals
JIT Supply• Adaptive
Standardization• Quality• Certification
System Design• Permitting• Logistics• Benchmarking• Responsive BoM
Services• Trade Assoc.• Coop Marketing• Training• Accurate Costing
Focused Energy Summit 2014 30April 13, 2023
ReferralLead
Generation
Feasibility Assessment
Customer Engagemen
t
Detailed Design
Proposal & Financing
Customer & AHJ
Approval
Optimizing Business Processes
Customer Fast Response Feedback
Sign-Off &Demand
Response
Sales
Unique Conditions LOI Standardized
ContractsPermitted &
Energized
Cash Flow Analysis
Maintenance & Monitoring
OperationsPrelim. Design
Updated Design
Costing & Schedule
3G Remote Management
Code Req. Sourcing
$$$
Focused Energy Summit 2014 31April 13, 2023
Debt Sources$$$
Focused Energy Summit 2014 32April 13, 2023
HERO PACE Program Is a Solar Financing Hero in California
HERO works in partnership with municipalities to administer and manage lending capital provided by private sources, and payments are collected by the municipalities along with a resident's property taxes.
PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) just keeps on growing.
$$$
Focused Energy Summit 2014 33April 13, 2023
System Design Optimization
Start with Site Map and Climate Data
• Module Orientation • Tilt / Azimuth
• Module Configuration • Portrait/Landscape
• Spacing• Shadowing• Inverter Topology• Module Level Power Electronics• Wiring Direction• Source Circuit Conductors• Inverter Load Ratio• Combiner Size• Combiner Layout• Home Run Conductor
Supplier Options Have Expanded• 7341 Module Types• 691 Inverter Options• 556 Structure Suppliers
Focused Energy Summit 2014 34April 13, 2023
System Design Optimization
Proposal Ready Design (plus options)
• Delivers Bill of Materials and Drawings• Bankable Model (e.g. PVSYST)• Cloud-based accessibility
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Focused Energy Summit 2014 35April 13, 2023
Permitting
September 21, 2014: Governor Jerry Brown signed Assembly Bill 2188, making California one of the first states in the U.S. to streamline permitting and inspection for small residential solar systems.
Treasure customer participation and feedback. Nudge people to take a home audit. • One was marketed to the environmentally minded and featured
"green" iconography.• The other was marketed to "energy-efficiency skeptics" and
focused on making sure that the home was not wasteful. "The call to action” is the same.
The most valuable asset is experience and relationships.Aim for a long-term relationship – including the AHJ
Focused Energy Summit 2014 36April 13, 2023
Module Manufacturing Trends
Vertically Integrated : so, module cost reduction benefits stay with producer
⅓ of module assembly is OEM
Solar City + Silevo Upstream
Focused Energy Summit 2014 37April 13, 2023
Source: GTM; Solvida Energy Group2012 2013F 2014E 2015E 2016E
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Misc.EBOSLaborSBOSStructureInverter
2012 2013F 2014E 2015E 2016E
Inverter $0.33 $0.30 $0.27 $0.25 $0.23
Structure $0.47 $0.43 $0.40 $0.36 $0.34
SBOS $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Labor $0.50 $0.44 $0.42 $0.39 $0.36
EBOS $0.55 $0.53 $0.52 $0.50 $0.49
Misc. $0.65 $0.63 $0.61 $0.59 $0.58Total, $/W $2.54 $2.37 $2.26 $2.13 $2.04
BOS Cost Roadmap, 5kW Residential Rooftop
SunPower Full 2014 Residential Price : ~ $4.15/W
Electrical BOS•DC optimizer (if any)•Wire•Monitoring•Combiner Boxes•Wire Mgmt•Disconnects
$/W
Benchmarking
vs. Best i
n Class
Focused Energy Summit 2014 38April 13, 2023
Residential PV System : Sensitivity Analysis
Focused Energy Summit 2014 39April 13, 2023
Shade Happens….
Example of variable shading and orientation
Focused Energy Summit 2014 40April 13, 2023
Shade Happens….
Trees
Focused Energy Summit 2014 41April 13, 2023
Shade Happens….
Inter-row shading
Focused Energy Summit 2014 42April 13, 2023
Overview of Module Level ElectronicsHigh Value
Low Value
Expensive InexpensiveControl
Distributed MaxPower Point Trackers
µInverters
Focused Energy Summit 2014 43April 13, 2023
Global PV Electronics Supplier Taxonomy : 2014
Focused Energy Summit 2014 44April 13, 2023
Commercial Rooftop DC-DC Optimizer Cost/Benefit
Focused Energy Summit 2014 45April 13, 2023
Residential Rooftop Microinverter Cost/Benefit
$0.55
$0.27
$0.05
$0.04$0.02
$0.06
$0.08
$0.04
$0.02
Focused Energy Summit 2014 46April 13, 2023
Complex Arrangements
Focused Energy Summit 2014 47April 13, 2023
Surface Mount Panelization
WAFER SILICON INGOT SYSTEM CELL MODULESURFACE MOUNT
PANEL
Focused Energy Summit 2014 48April 13, 2023
FlexStrap
End View
Bonded Straps
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~1.1 m~1
.6 m
End View
AdhesiveModule allowed to flex – eliminating high stresses
Module WithFront Side Loading
FlexStrap
Module
FlexStrap carries load in tension, while allowing module to Flex
Focused Energy Summit 2014 49April 13, 2023
Vertical Mounting RailAdditional Cost Savings
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FlexStrapClamps
Module Module
Vertical rails reduced from 2/module
to 1/module
Focused Energy Summit 2014 50April 13, 2023
Surface Mount Panelization
WAFER SILICON INGOT SYSTEM CELL MODULESURFACE MOUNT
PANEL
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Total Cost Savings Module: $10.82/ea
Rail: $8.54TOTAL: $0.21/W
Focused Energy Summit 2014 51April 13, 2023
Surface Mount Panelization
WAFER SILICON INGOT SYSTEM CELL MODULESURFACE MOUNT
PANEL
Now We Install the BrainsMLPE
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Focused Energy Summit 2014 52April 13, 2023
Site Specific BoM Delivered by Pod
p
Focused Energy Summit 2014 53April 13, 2023
Agenda / Overview
• Unprecedented U.S. Utility Changes
• Growth in Residential Rooftop PV
• Opportunities for Expanding Customer Engagement
• Collaborating to Win• Financing• Software Optimization• Hardware Optimization
• A New Product Approach : Continuously Customizable Optimization
Focused Energy Summit 2014 54April 13, 2023
Surface Mount Product Strategy
HUBCO : Customized Standardization
• Distributed BoM Packaging for Each Job Site• Fulfillment Centers:
– e.g. Foxconn (Ciudad Juárez), Flextronics (Fremont, CA) or Jabil
• Module producer to ship unframed laminates without J-Boxes• Higher packing density = lower transportation costs
• Optimize Module Level Power Electronics and Inverter for each site• Truck a pod with an installation-ready system to the job site
• Evolve upstream to buying cells and extract additional cost benefits• Annealed glass• Meet new UL 2703 standard ahead of the industry for maximum insurability• Anti-soiling AR Coated Glass
• Integrate Uniquely Branded Utility Interactive Metering and Controls
Focused Energy Summit 2014 55April 13, 2023
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."-- Winston Churchill