AN D R E W J . PAR R , S E N I O R P O L I C Y AN ALY S T
WAS H I N G T O N S TAT E B O AR D O F E D U C AT I O N
S E P T E M B E R 9 , 2 0 1 4
Performance Gaps
Any Groups Left Behind?
Presentation Roadmap
Washington State Board of Education
Changing Landscape of Education
Enrollment and demographic changes
Examining performance gaps
Through the lens of the Achievement Index
Through the lens of MSP proficiency data
Through the lens of the SGP Growth Model
Preschool through High School Graduation
How you do prefer to view performance gaps? What
gap do we report?
School Enrollment Increases
Washington State Board of Education
1,031,846 1,038,345 1,036,135 1,041,892 1,043,536 1,050,900
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Nu
mb
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of
Stu
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Public School Enrollment
Total Students
Demographics Are Changing
Washington State Board of Education
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70
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Changing DemographicsRace and Ethnicity
American Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian
Native Hawiian/ Pacific Islander
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
White
Two or More
White
Hispanic/Latino
More Low Income Students
Washington State Board of Education
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10
20
30
40
50
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Changing DemographicsOther ESEA Subgroups
Free and Reduced Price Lunch
Students with Disabilities
English Language Learners
Great Recession
More Bilingual Students
Washington State Board of Education
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Nu
mb
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of
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WELPA Enrollment
Grade 3
Grade 8
Do you think the educational system has changed in
a manner that supports our evolving population?
Washington State Board of Education
Hispanic and Latino Students
Students qualifying for Free and Reduced Price Lunch
Bilingual Students
As the state’s student demographics change, you might expect that student outcomes also change.
All groups increasing
M E AS U R I N G G AP S T H R O U G H T H E
AC H I E V E M E N T I N D E X
Washington State Board of Education
One Way to View Gaps
Washington State Board of Education
Progress of the Accountability System
Washington State Board of Education
Progress of the Accountability System
Index Rating Gaps
Washington State Board of Education
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
All Targeted All Targeted All Targeted
Proficiency Growth Graduation
Ac
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Ind
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2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Proficiency Index Rating Gap
Washington State Board of Education
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Pr
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All Students
Targeted Subgroup
Proficiency Rates Increasing
Gap is Unchanged
1.39 Rating
Point Gap
1.40 Rating
Point Gap
Growth Model (SGPs) by Race/Ethnicity
Washington State Board of Education
40.0
46.8
47.6
48.0
50.6
50.7
57.7
0 20 40 60 80
American Indian/NativeAlaskan
PacificIslander/Hawaiian
Hispanic/Latino
Black/African American
White
Two or More
Asian
2012-13 Reading SGP
2012-13
43.8
43.8
47.2
49.1
50.0
50.3
58.2
0 20 40 60 80
American Indian/NativeAlaskan
PacificIslander/Hawaiian
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
Two or More
White
Asian
2012-13 Math SGP
2012-13
For proficiency gaps to narrow,
the growth rates for the
Targeted Subgroup must
exceed the growth rates for the Not Targeted
Subgroup.
SGPs Over Time
Washington State Board of Education
0 20 40 60
ELL
Former ELL
SWD
Low Income
All
Reading SGP by Subgroup
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
0 20 40 60
ELL
Former ELL
SWD
Low Income
All
Math SGP by Subgroup
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Median SGPs do not change much from year to year,
especially for large groups.
Growth Index Rating Gap
Washington State Board of Education
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Gr
ow
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All Students
Targeted Subgroup
0.63 Rating
Point Gap
0.53 Rating
Point Gap
Growth Rates Increasing
Gap is Essentially Unchanged
Graduation Index Rating Gap
Washington State Board of Education
4
5
6
7
8
Gr
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All Students
Targeted Subgroup
1.73 Rating
Point Gap
1.40 Rating
Point Gap
Ratings based on the 5-Year Graduation Rate are Increasing
Gap is slightly reduced.
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
At current rates and based on this Index data, it will take at
least 15 to 20 years or more to really make a dent in the
performance gaps.
The current plan is total elimination of gaps and 100
percent goal attainment by 2027 – just 13 years down the
road.
How would you respond to a constituent claiming that the
2027 goal attainment is unrealistic?
E AR LY C H I L D H O O D E D U C AT I O N
The Beginning of Gaps
Washington State Board of Education
Opportunity Gaps
Washington State Board of Education
Family Structure
Parent(s) Education
Parent(s) Employment
Housing
Poverty
Health
Language
Mobility
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
At which school level (Pre-K, elementary, middle, high
school, or beyond) do you believe performance gaps
to be the greatest? And the smallest?
Early Childhood Education - Participation
Washington State Board of Education
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12
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Children Attending PreschoolAll 3 & 4 Year-Olds
Peer States
WashingtonChildren in Washington attend preschool at a lower rate than all of the
other Peer States.
11 percentage point gap is
unchanged over multiple years.
Preschool – Opportunity to Learn
Washington State Board of Education
0
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50
60
2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12
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Children Attending Preschool3 & 4 Year-Olds by Race Ethnicity
Peer States
Not Targeted Subgroup
Hispanic/Latino
Hispanic/Latino children in Washington attend preschool at a lower rate than all
of the other Peer States.
Washington Asian and
White Children
Peer States
All Children
Washington Hispanic
& Latino Children
Preschool Access by Poverty
Washington State Board of Education
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60
2005-07 2009-11 2010-12
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Washington 3 & 4 Year-Olds Attending Preschool
In Poverty
Not In Poverty
Before ever stepping into a public school, much fewer
children in poverty have been exposed to early education
as compared to children not living in poverty.
Early Childhood Education - Synopsis
Washington State Board of Education
In Washington
Children attend preschool at a lower rate than all the other
Peer States
Hispanic/Latino children attend preschool at a far lower rate
than Asians, Whites, or Two or More Races
Children in poverty attend preschool at a lower rate than all
the other Peer States
Children in poverty attend preschool at a far lower rate than
children not in poverty and this gap is widening
For some…Opportunity to Learn is Limited
Early Childhood Education
Washington State Board of Education
Stop and Think
For all those children living in poverty who do not have
access to high quality early childhood education,
Do you think the lack of Opportunity to Learn will have an
impact on kindergarten readiness?
Do you think our system is really supporting the needs of this
expanding group?
Who do you think will be kindergarten ready?
Kindergarten Readiness Gap
Washington State Board of Education
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60
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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WaKIDS Targeted Subgroup Gap
Targeted Subgroups
Not Targeted Subgroups
The Gap is Increasing
Kindergarten Readiness
Washington State Board of Education
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60
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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Students by Subgroup Meeting All Six Domains on the WaKIDS Instrument
All Students
Low Income
Bilingual
Special Education
All Gaps are Increasing
WaKIDS - Opportunity Gap
Washington State Board of Education
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60
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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Do
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Low Income
Not Low Income
24.7 Percentage
Point Gap
Children living in poverty have less access to
high quality early childhood education – one
outcome is that far fewer low income children
are kindergarten ready. The gap is widening.
WaKIDS - Synopsis
Washington State Board of Education
Two levels of performance are evident based on Targeted
Subgroup membership
Substantially lower performance is evident for Low Income,
Bilingual, and Special Education students
Performance is increasing but Gaps are widening
Poverty Gap is larger than the Race/Ethnicity Gap
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
We saw that children in poverty often have limited
Opportunity to Learn through early childhood education and
are not typically kindergarten ready, but…
By the end of the 3rd grade, do you think the gaps will be
larger or smaller?
E L E M E N TARY AN D M I D D L E G R AD E S
Proficiency Gaps and
Growth Gaps
Washington State Board of Education
3rd Grade Literacy – Performance Gap
Washington State Board of Education
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100
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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3rd Grade Literacyby Race/Ethnicity
American Indian
Asian
Pacific Islanders
Black
Hispanic
White
Two or More Races
3rd Grade Literacy – Race/Ethnicity Gap
Washington State Board of Education
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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Targeted SubgroupRace/Ethnicity Gap
Not Targeted Subgroup
Targeted Subgroup
Reading Proficiency Rates and
the Race/Ethnicity Gap
are Unchanged
3rd Grade Literacy – Poverty Gap
Washington State Board of Education
23.9 Percentage
Point Gap
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20
40
60
80
100
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
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3rd Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
24.3 Percentage
Point Gap
From the beginning of kindergarten through the 3rd grade, little has changed. The +20-point performance gap based on poverty persists.
3rd Grade Literacy - Synopsis
Washington State Board of Education
Two performance levels are clearly delineated
Not Targeted Subgroup (80 percent Meet/Exceed Standards)
Targeted Subgroup (60 percent Meet/Exceed Standards)
The performance levels of Not Low Income and Low
Income groups mimic the subgroups based on Race and
Ethnicity
The Gaps based on Race/Ethnicity and Poverty are
substantial and unchanged over the previous 5 years.
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
These first data shots seem to show a connection between poverty status and achievement.
But after four years in public schools, wouldn’t you expect that most of these children in poverty would be catching up with those not in poverty?
Beginning in the 4th grade, we can see how many children in poverty are actually catching up. We can monitor the gaps every year between the 3rd and 8th grade.
How do you think the gaps will change by the end of the 8th grade?
Adequate Growth Percentiles (AGP)
and Starting Points
Washington State Board of Education
Keep-Up
Students at Achievement Level 3
AGP required to remain proficient in two years
Catch-Up
Students at Achievement Level 1 or 2
AGP required to become proficient within two years
Shown as KU and CU on the following slides
Adequate Growth - Schematic
Washington State Board of Education
Keep-Up
Catch-Up
Adequate Growth (AGPs)
Washington State Board of Education
What percentage of 4th
grade students met their Adequate Growth Percentile (AGP)?
What percentage is “on-track” to be proficient within two years?
About 65 percent are “on-track” for reading
About 58 percent are “on-track for math
0%
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40%
60%
80%
100%
2011 2012 2013
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4th GradeAdequate Growth
Reading
Math
First a Quick Look at Proficiency
Washington State Board of Education
2012 Poverty Gap is 23.8
percentage points.
2013 Poverty Gap is 22.4
percentage points.
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100
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3rd Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
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60
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100
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4th Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
Catch-Up and Keep-Up Complexity
Washington State Board of Education
Keep-Up students are more
likely to meet AGP
Low Income students are more
likely to be in Catch-Up group
Low Income students are
less likely to meet AGP
regardless of KU/CU group
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20
40
60
80
100
2011 2012 2013
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4th Grade ReadingAdequate Growth
Keep-Up
Catch-Up
All
0
20
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60
80
100
2011 2012 2013
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4th Grade ReadingAGP by FRL Status
KU Not FRL
KU FRL
CU Not FRL
CU FRL
5th and 6th Grade Proficiency
Washington State Board of Education
2012 Poverty Gap is 23.3
percentage points
2013 Poverty Gap is 24.0
percentage points.
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100
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5th Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
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100
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6th Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
6th grade Reading AGPs
Washington State Board of Education
Keep-Up students are more
likely to meet AGP
Low Income students are more
likely to be in Catch-Up group
Low Income students are less
likely to meet AGP regardless
of KU/CU group
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2011 2012 2013
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6th Grade ReadingAGP by FRL Status
KU Not FRL
KU FRL
CU Not FRL
CU FRL
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2011 2012 2013
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6th Grade ReadingAdequate Growth
Keep-Up
Catch-Up
All
7th and 8th Grade Reading Proficiency
Washington State Board of Education
2013 Poverty Gap is 24.8
percentage points.
Poverty Gap is unchanged over
four testing cycles.
2013 Poverty Gap is 24.4
percentage points (pp).
Poverty Gap increased 2.9 pp
over four testing cycles.
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7th Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
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8th Grade LiteracyPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
If you think about the previous few slides, remember that
the Poverty Gap for Reading Literacy in each assessment
cycle was approximately 22 to 24 percentage points.
Are you kind of surprised how persistent and consistent the
Poverty Gap is?
Let’s take another quick look in a couple of different charts.
Reading Literacy Poverty Gap
Cohort View
Washington State Board of Education
See how the proficiency rate
declines a little at the end of
middle school.
The 22 to 25 percentage point
Poverty Gap is persistent for
this pseudo-cohort of students.
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3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Cohort Literacy RatePoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
25.121.8
24.4 23.3 23.4 24.5
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30
40
50
3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Cohort Literacy RatePoverty Gap
Poverty Gap by Grade Level
2013 Snapshot
Washington State Board of Education
A Poverty Gap of about 24
percentage points persists
through middle school.
Literacy rates decline in upper
grade levels.
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3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
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Grade Level
2013 Grade Level Literacyby Poverty Status
Not Low Income
Low Income
23.4 22.424.3 24.0 24.8 24.4
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50
3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
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Grade Level
2013 LiteracyPoverty Gap
Poverty Gap by Grade Level
2014 Snapshot
Washington State Board of Education
A Poverty Gap of about 24
percentage points persists
through middle school.
Grade level rates may be
impacted by the SBAC Field
Test.
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60
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100
3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
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Grade Level
2014 Grade Level Literacyby Poverty Status
Not Low Income
Low Income
24.3 24.4 24.723.0
26.4
21.1
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50
3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
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Grade Level
2014 LiteracyPoverty Gap
Stop and Think
Washington State Board of Education
40 percent of students in poverty do not meet grade-level standards in
reading.
The 23-24 percentage point Poverty Gap is persistent across grade
levels.
There is little evidence supporting the idea that children in poverty are
growing at a rate fast enough to meet standards in the near future.
Are you surprised by the persistent Poverty Gap?
S E C O N D ARY E D U C AT I O N
Gaps at the Beginning and End
of High School
Washington State Board of Education
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High School Readinessby Special ESEA Subgroup
All Students
Special Education
Bilingual
Low Income
High School Readiness
Washington State Board of Education
Low Income
Bilingual
SWDs
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100
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High School ReadinessRace/Ethnicity Gap
Not Targeted Subgroup
Targeted Subgroup
High School Readiness
Washington State Board of Education
Proficiency Rates Slightly Higher for Targeted Subgroup
Race/Ethnicity Gap Increases
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High School ReadinessPoverty Gap
Not Low Income
Low Income
High School Readiness – Poverty Gap
Washington State Board of Education
Performance level increased slightly
Gap also increased slightly
High School Readiness - Synopsis
Washington State Board of Education
A rigorous indicator as only about 44 percent of all students meet this benchmark
Two performance levels based on Targeted Subgroup membership are evident
Both the Poverty and Race/Ethnicity Gaps increased slightly
How do you think the performance gaps will change by the end of high school?
4-Year Graduation Rates - Subgroups
Washington State Board of Education
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100
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
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4-Year Graduation Ratesby Special Subgroup
All Students
Low Income
Special Education
Bilingual
Gaps increased slightly as graduation
rates declined.
4-Year Graduation Rate – FRL Status
Washington State Board of Education
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50
60
70
80
90
100
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
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4-Year Graduation Rateby Poverty Status
Not Low Income
Low Income
Gap is Widening
Low Income rate decreased 1.6 percentage points (2012 to 2013)
Not Low Income rate was unchanged from (2012 to 2013)
5-Year Graduation Rate
Washington State Board of Education
0
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60
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100
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
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5-Year Graduation Rateby Poverty Status
Not Low Income
Low Income
Gap is Decreasing
Students qualifying for Free and Reduced Price Lunch (Low
Income) benefit from the additional time to graduate at a higher
rate than Not Low Income students.
4-Year Graduation Rate - Synopsis
Washington State Board of Education
The 4-Year Graduation dropped 1.2 percentage points
in 2013 as compared to 2012.
A wide range of performance levels based on
subgroup membership are evident.
The Graduation Gap based on Poverty increased 1.8
percentage points over the same three-year period.
Substantial Gaps Throughout the System
Washington State Board of Education
0 20 40 60 80 100
Preschool Participation
Kindergarten Readiness
3rd Grade Literacy
High School Readiness
High School Graduation
Percent of Students
Poverty Gap by Indicator
Low Income
Not Low Income
Persistence of Gaps (2013)
Washington State Board of Education
21.0
24.723.4
29.7
22.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
PreschoolParticipation
KindergartenReadiness
3rd GradeLiteracy
High SchoolReadiness
High SchoolGraduation
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Poverty Gap by Indicator
The magnitude of the gaps doesn’t really change much
across the system.
One Last Question
Washington State Board of Education
What surprised you the most about the nature of the
performance gaps?
J U L I A S U L I M AN , P O L I C Y AN ALY S T
WAS H I N G T O N S TAT E B O AR D O F E D U C AT I O N
Educational System Health
Washington State Board of Education
Educational System Inputs and Outputs
Washington State Board of Education
Gaps, Equity, and the Strategic Plan
Washington State Board of Education
Gaps are evident throughout the education system An inequitable system is not a healthy system
Additional indicators that look at opportunity inputs may help the Board better understand the health of the system
The Board has an important role to play in addressing those gaps Equity issues will be addressed in the three major strategic focus
areas:
Closing the achievement gap
Ensuring career and college readiness for all students
Accountability, recognition, and supports for students and schools
Strategic plan will impact decisions on any additional indicators and suggested reforms to close the gaps under 5491