Download - Peru Economic&Social Outlook
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
1/25
PERU: ECONOMIC & SOCIALOUTLOOK
October 2010
Ministry of Economy and Finance
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
2/25
Index
1. Economic Outlook
2. Social Progress
3. Challenges and prospects
2
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
3/25
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
4/25
Peru overcame the global financial crisisrelatively unharmed, maintaining GDP growth,employment generation and poverty reduction
Key factors behind 2010 rebound: Confidence recovery Effective countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy High commodity prices
Sound balance sheets: Government, banks, firms andhouseholds
4
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
5/25
Peru: Better performance than its peers
5
Latin-American GDP(Seasonally adjusted index Q4-07=100)
Source: Central Banks and National Bureaus of Statistics
90
95
100
105
110
115
Q4 07 Q2 08 Q4 08 Q2 09 Q4 09 Q2 10
Colombia
Chile
Brazil
Peru
Mexico
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
6/25
Growth back to pre crisis levels
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Peru.
Quarterly GDP Growth(Annual % change)
Seasonally Adjusted GDP andDomestic Demand
(Index 1994 = 100)
6
164
173
182
191
200
209
218
J-07 M-07 S-07 J-08 M-08 S-08 J-09 M-09 S-09 J-10 M-10
Domestic DemandGDP
Jul-10
10.3
11.710.9
6.5
1.9
-1.2-0.6
3.4
6.1
10.1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
7/25
Private investment returns as the main driverof growth
Private Investment(Annual % change)
Capital goods imports($ million, 3M moving average)
Source : APOYO,Central Bank of Peru.7
Business confidence(%)
1/ Percentage of entrepreneurs who plan to accelerate their investment projects in the next 6 months.
20.1
34.1
28.1
21.3
1.8
-20.8 -22.0
-16.7
11.5
24.6
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
J -08 M-08 S-08 J -09 M-09 S-09 J-10 M-10Jul-10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1-07 Q3-07 Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11
ConfidencePrivate Investment (Annual % change, Right Axis)
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
8/25
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
9/25
Countercyclical fiscal policy
Overall Balance of the Non-FinancialPublic Sector
(% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance.9
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
10/25
1/. Figure for 2011 corresponds to preliminary data.
Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance.
Participation of Debt Service 1/
(% of Public Budget)
10
Latin America: Public Debt 2009(% of GDP)63.5
41.2
28.1 26.6
6.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Chile
Median Baa3countries: 38.7
(Baa3) (Baa1)(Ba1) (Baa3) (A1)
2009 Foreign Exchange Reserves(% of GDP)
26.1
15.7 15.5
11.3 11.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Peru Brazil Chile Mexico Colombia
Favorable financial indicators
26.3
18.6
12.8
11.2
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
2005 2007 2009 2011
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
11/25
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
12/25
Investment as % of GDP reaching the highestlevel in 30 years
Public and Private Investment(% GDP)
Source: Central Bank Of Peru, Ministry of Economy and Finance. 12
Average
10
14
18
22
26
30
88-92 93-97 98-02 03-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Public Investment
Private Investment
P i h l f i i
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
13/25
Peru in the select group of emerging countriesgrowing at least 6% during 2010-2013
World GDP 2010-2013(Average annual % change)
13Source: IMF-WEO Abril 2010
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
14/25
SOCIAL PROGRESS
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
15/25
15
Average GDP per capita 1950-2009(1994 Nuevos Soles)
Source: BCRP
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006
3 years moving average5 years moving average
2009
GDP per capita: Upward trend since 1992
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
16/25
Sustained reduction of poverty and inequality
Source: Bureau of National Statistics,
Economic Commission for LatinAmerican and the Caribbean.
National Poverty Rate(% of population)
Inequality in America 2003-2008(Gini Index)
Inequality(Gini Index)
0.54
0.47
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.56
2003 2009
46.4
46.1
51.652.6
54.854.3
52.0
48.648.7
44.5
39.336.2
34.8
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
U
ruguay
Cos
taRica
Peru
ElS
alva
dor
E
cua
dor
Mex
ico
La
tinA
merica
Ar
gen
tina
Chile
P
anama
Pa
raguay
Nic
aragua
Dom.R
epu
blic
Bo
liv
ia
Ho
nduras
Co
lom
bia
Gua
tema
la
Braz
il
16
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
17/25
Middle Class Boost: sectors D and E fell 11 pp.
2004 2010
Source: Apoyo.1/ Metropolitan Lima
Household Structure by Socio Economic Levels1
17
19.4
35.1
28.7
14.1
2.7
13.8
30.2
33.1
17.7
5.2
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
18/25
Pro-poor and Decentralized Growth
Average Monthly Income by Household(Current Nuevos Soles)
By RegionBy Quintile
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
National
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
2009
2003
18%
57%
38%
58%
67%
84%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Mountains
Jungle
Coast
National
M. Lima
2009
2003
19%
38%
45%
84%
61%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Labor.18
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
19/25
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
20/25
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
21/25
Poverty Level12345
Bank OfficesMFI Offices
1/. Updated to July 2010
Source: SBS / INEI
2001 2010 1/
Expansion of micro-financial institutions
Banks 822MFI 250
N Offices
Banks 1,467MFI 1,156
N Offices
21
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
22/25
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
23/25
Short term priorities
23
Economic policy continuity
Sustain high rates of economic growth
Continue with poverty reduction
Enhance competitiveness
Maintain a prudent fiscal policy framework andconsolidate macro prudential framework
Manage adequately capital inflows, mitigatingexchange rate volatility
Ensure a smooth democratic political transition
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
24/25
Perus prospects are positive due,mainly, to policy continuity during the
past two decades and favorableexternal conditions. The main
challenge going forward is to sustainhigh growth with social inclusion
24
-
8/8/2019 Peru Economic&Social Outlook
25/25
PERU: ECONOMIC & SOCIALOUTLOOK
October 2010
Ministry of Economy and Finance