Download - Philip Killeen-Honors Capstone
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Dividend Delivered or Climate Catastrophe? An Assessment of Indian Urban Development
Trajectories in the Anthropocene
By Philip Killeen University Honors Spring 2015
Capstone Advisors: Miles Kahler, PhD School of International Studies
Christopher Rudolph, PhD School of International Studies
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Contents: I. Abstract & Introduction 3 II. Literature Review 6 III. Demographic Trends 14 IV. Environmental Trends 21 V. India’s Infrastructure Bottlenecks & Historic Urban Development 23 Framework VI. Content of the Smart Cities Initiative 30 VII. Progress and Criticisms of the Smart Cities Initiative 32 VIII. Policy Reform Recommendations and Conclusion 35 IX. Appendix 40 X. Bibliography 46
Abstract:
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Experiencing robust and sustained population growth, India is projected to
bear a demographic bulge of working age citizens through the first half of the 21st century. One notable outcome of this trend is the rapid movement to and growth of India's urban centers, with profound implications on India's economic development and environmental integrity. The scope of this paper is to assess how the political, environmental, and socio-‐economic dynamics underlying India's urban growth trajectory interface with proposed policy reform, and to explore through which means developmental and sustainability outcomes can be improved.
I. Introduction
Outlining, arguably, the most ambitious urban development project of the 21st century, Narendra Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative benchmarks the creation of 100 new “smart” cities—with modernized and environmentally sustainable transport, housing, utility, and connectivity services. This expansive policy framework has been announced to meet the demand for increased urbanization in India—driven by rapid population growth and immigration to cities from India’s dispersed rural population. This announcement provides a unique opportunity for urban-‐focused sustainable development in India, a country whose economic emergence will be pivotal for the global climate change mitigation regime. According to Indian Census data, India’s urban population is expected to increase to 590 million by 20301. This represents an increase of 230 million from the approximate 377 million currently in urban centers. Research on productivity in India estimates that cities could generate up to 70% of new Indian jobs through 2030—fueling 70% of GDP and allowing the country to capitalize on a substantial demographic dividend2. Coupling this transition, however, is the enormous burden placed on India’s public administration to finance, oversee large-‐scale construction, and facilitate private sector involvement in the creation of urban environments—estimated by the McKinsey Global Institute to cost approximately US $1.2 trillion in capital expenditure through 2030, nearly eight times the level of its current spending3.
Establishing salient linkages between urban design and economic benefit across strata of Indian society will be essential to increasing stakeholder buy-‐in and investor follow-‐through for Modi’s initiative. The need for robust governance on India’s urban development extends beyond federal level leadership from the Modi administration, however. With a past dominated by policy and governance geared towards rural settings, India’s state level parliamentary and mayoral leadership has a crucial role to play in implementing national policy.
While essential to its economic emergence, this demographic transition also poses substantial challenges to the regional and global sustainability regime. If
1 "Population Enumeration Information." Censusindia.gov. Ministry of Home Affairs, 2011. Web. 2 "Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web. 3 Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.". McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web.
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Modi’s sustainability-‐related urban development benchmarks are not met, India risks compromising its environmental heritage and the economic livelihoods of future generations. Lacking formalized commitment to climate change mitigation, enforcing the sustainability related components of Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative, therefore, seems critical to India’s meaningful participation in the global sustainability regime.
By assessing the political, environmental, and socio-‐economic dynamics underlying India’s record of urban development and governance, it becomes clear that, as written, Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative is insufficient to meet the challenge of directing India towards sustainable and equitable economic development alone. To improve the outcomes of this policy framework, Modi should combine strong and informed federal leadership with engagement of potential financial partners, empowerment of municipal governance bodies, and reformation of urban development policy. Doing so will tailor urban development solutions to the specific economic and cultural needs of India’s diverse society while also contributing meaningfully to the mitigation of and adaption to regional and global climate threats. II. Literature Review A growing body of research, focused on exploring the implications of urbanization in the context of climate change and sustainability, informs the scope and motivation of this paper. As climate change is a global issue, these studies have been applied to countries of nearly all socio-‐economic and developmental strata. This literature review, however, focuses on the cross-‐section of this body of research concerning sustainable urbanization in emerging economies as it is of greatest relevance to India. Amongst these studies, recurrent themes of municipal government and community empowerment, resource efficiency, financing networks, and regulatory reform are identified as lynchpins essential to the reconciliation of economic development with climate change. Demographic Transition Theory
Framing most contemporary analysis of urbanization trends in emerging economies, Demographic Transition Theory and respondent critiques assess the impact of modernization on population dynamics of emerging economies. Conventionally regarded as the origin of the term, Population: the long view4 by Frank Notestein observes how the dynamic of states experiencing modernization is normally characterized by rapidly decreasing mortality rates preceding the more gradual decline of fertility rates. Notestein identifies the reduction of epidemics by vaccination and better hygiene, improved treatment and diagnosis of disease, reduced famine due to greater agricultural output, and fewer instances of civil war and conflict due to stronger international institutions as factors promoting the rapid reduction of mortality rates observed in states integrating with the global economy and experiencing modernization.
4 Notestein, F.W. “Population: The Long View.” Popline.org. University of Chicago Press, 1945. Web.
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Identifying the vectors through which fertility rates declined in these states proved more challenging—with early research relying on somewhat dogmatic conventions of increased morality and intelligence accompanying modernization and altering “uncivilized” cultural norms in these states. Subsequent research on Demographic Transition Theory has expanded upon these observations—providing more nuanced analysis of factors through which the subsequent declines in fertility could be explained. An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis5 by Richard Easterlin identifies economic “supply factors,” such as monetary, time, and physic constraints in contraception use and family planning as well as “demand factors,” such as desired family size and religious beliefs, explaining the comparatively gradual reduction of fertility rates in less-‐developed states.
It is important here to note that the sequence of population effects outlined in the Demographic Transition Theory is not uniformly supported by its associated research. Jeremy Greenwood and Anath Seshadri observe in The U.S. Demographic Transition6 that, during its interface with modernization in the 1800s, the United States experienced a rapid decline in fertility rates preceding the very gradual decline of mortality rates in the country over one hundred years later. Greenwood and Seshadri attribute this exception of Demographic Transition Theory to westward expansion and the ability of poor migrants to exponentially populate the country in a short period of time.
More closely reflecting the Western European-‐influenced colonial context seen in India, The State and Pre-‐Colonial Demographic History: The Case of Nineteenth-‐Century Madagascar7 by Gwyn Campbell challenges the uniform applicability of Demographic Transition Theory in post-‐colonial states. Established as a French protectorate in 1882, Madagascar’s Merina government initially implemented domestically oriented pro-‐agricultural growth policies—associated with observable benefits to the health, size, and productivity of Madagascar’s labor force. Campbell suggests, however, that once directed towards militaristic expansion by its French colonial overseers, the Merina government implemented exploitative labor policy—associated with disease, poverty, and malnutrition. As a result, Madagascar’s perverse initial demographic outcome of “modernization” was higher rates of infant and adult mortality. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the impact of colonial legacy, supplementing conventional analysis of modernization effects on population dynamics, in assessing the legitimacy of Demographic Transition Theory.
Concentrating yet more precisely on the assessment of Demographic Transition Theory in India, Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition8 by Geoffrey McNicoll notes commonalities of social and economic policy
5 Easterlin, Richard. “An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis.” Ssc.wisc.edu Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 6, No. 3. March 1975. Web. 6 “ Greenwood, Jeremy and Ananth Seshadri. “The U.S. Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org. The American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 2. May 2002. Web. 7 Campbell, Gwyn. “The State and Pre-Colonial Demographic History: The Case of Nineteenth-Century Madagascar.” Jstor.org. The Journal of African History, Vol. 32, No. 3. 1991. Web. 8 McNicoll, Geoffrey. “Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org Population and Development Review, Vol 32, No. 1. March 2006. Web.
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implementation of India’s modernizing neighbor states, including Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam. McNicoll identifies regional commonalities in the formation of strong authoritarian governance, increased provision of health, education, and family welfare services, and the loosening of foreign direct investment controls characteristic of liberal economic policy as vectors promoting decreased mortality and fertility rates in the region.
Paralleling these observations, McNicoll acknowledges how changes in family economic conditions and opportunities also stimulated greater demand for education, health, and family planning services from the families themselves. Applied to women’s rights, these insights were formational to the establishment of institutions such as the United Nations Population Fund 1994 Cario Program of Action, rebranding fertility management policy from “crude demographics” to an issue of women’s reproductive health. This insight is significant in that it recognizes the agency of families in modernizing states as actors, influencing population dynamics and actualizing endogenous social values. This research counters the prevailing logic that external forces are solely responsible for changing cultural norms towards population dynamics witnessed during the demographic transition. Demographic Dividend Theory Having established the broad parameters and causality of declining fertility and mortality rates in modernizing states, a large body of econometric research has explored the implications of Demographic Transition Theory on the economic emergence of these states. The Challenge of Attaining the Demographic Dividend9 by James Gribble and Jason Bremner notes that, due to the asynchronous occurrence of declining fertility and mortality rates in modernizing states, an observable generational population bulge is produced throughout society. With fewer births each year and with an increasingly healthy and productive elderly population, growth rates of the countries working-‐age population exceed that of the young and dependent population. As a result the state is afforded a 20-‐30 year window of opportunity, conventionally known as the “Demographic Dividend”, during which a decreased dependency ratio can stimulate rapid economic growth when coupled with effective social and economic policy.
Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia10 by David Bloom and Jeffery Williamson provides some of the most compelling evidence for the Demographic Dividend Theory. By isolating and analyzing the effects of regional demography such as changes in labor force participation, savings rate, human capital accumulation and domestic demand in Asia from 1965-‐1990, Bloom and Williamson suggest that up to a third of observed economic growth in the region during this time period, colloquially known as the East Asian Miracle, was attributable to the demographic dividend. Bloom and Williamson also note that these changes were uniformly accompanied by development of the industry sector,
9 Gribble, James and Jason Bremner. “The Challenge of Attaining the Demographic Dividend.” Prb.org. Population Reference Bureau. November 2012. Web. 10 Bloom, David and Jeffrey Williamson. “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia.” Nber.org. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 6268. 1997. Web.
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followed shortly thereafter by the service sector—with job opportunities for both concentrated in urban and peri-‐urban environments.
Considering the gendered impacts of demographic dividend-‐stimulated growth, David Bloom, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla identify additional benefits accrued by women in modernizing states in The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change11. Also using East Asia as a case study, the authors observe how reduced fertility rates allowed women to acquire employment and education to a higher extent—making the labor force more productive. Experiencing an observable increase of health and productive capacity, women benefitted from increased social status and personal independence in these states. In regards to long-‐term development, family incomes supplemented by newly employed women promoted the better nutrition of children—especially young girls—essential to realizing their productive potential.
Having demonstrated the potential for economy wide benefits for states going through the demographic transition to a modernized economy, discussing research on the less apparent but equally salient economic challenges imposed by the demographic dividend is an important context for understanding the implications of India’s urbanization trend. A Review of Age Structural Transition and Demographic Dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges12 by Navaneetham and Dharmalingam identifies asymmetries in income equality, nutrition, and access to education in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal as factors reducing the productive potential of the demographic dividend. The authors consider the subsequent observed growth of informal labor markets in South Asia as evidence of a failure of government policy and the private sector to realize the potential of the demographic dividend. Sustainable Urbanization
Nuancing insight gleaned from research on economic modernization and population dynamics, exploring how emerging economies—experiencing rapid economic growth due to the demographic dividend—have interfaced with the global sustainability regime is becoming increasingly important as concerns over anthropogenic climate change effects increase. Emblematic of these concerns, the term “Anthropocene,” first coined by Paul Crutzen in his 2002 paper Geology of mankind13, has been adopted by climate scientists and many policy makers as the informal geologic chronological term referring to the era in which human activities have has a significant global impact on Earth’s ecosystems. Crutzen points towards the rapid growth in per capita exploitation of land, water, and air resources, performed by 25% of the world’s population and concentrated in urban centers, as primary vectors of environmental degradation and global warming.
11 Bloom, David, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. “The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change.” Rand.org Rand. 2003. Web. 12 K, Navaneetham and A Dharmalingam. “A Review of Age Structural Transition and Demographic Dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges.” Proquest.com. Journal of Population Ageing, December 2012. Web. 13 Crutzen, Paul. “Geology of mankind.” Nature.com. Nature. 2002. Web
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Time has not lessened the severity of this outlook. In its annual Compilation and Synthesis Report14, The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2014 Lima Summit outlined the most recent research on global climate change vectors and impacts. While the report opens noting a decrease in annual global emissions from 19.1 to 17.0 thousand megatons of carbon dioxide—representing a 10.6% decline in the period from 1990-‐2012—these reductions are attributed almost in their entirety to decreased global economic activity due to the global financial crisis and to the mitigation actions of developed states in Western Europe and the United States (known as Annex I countries). While the report complements the increased engagement of Non-‐Annex members, such as Brazil, India, and China with subsidiary UNFCCC organizations to address climate change mitigation, these states are identified as the primary sources of carbon emissions growth.
This regional assessment is corroborated by case studies on the localized impacts of climate change in emerging economies. These studies demonstrate that responding to the environmental consequences of climate change, especially in the context of urbanization, remains a policy imperative both for regional governance in emerging economies and for the global sustainability regime. Utilizing Bangladesh in 2006 as a case study, The State of the Environment in Asia15 by Awaji Takehisa and Teranishi Shun’ichi connects global emissions of carbon dioxide—associated with economic development, urbanization, and industrialization—to the increased prevalence and intensity of climatic disasters in Bangladesh such as cyclones and flooding. The authors contend that, to account for its increased vulnerability to anthropogenic climate effects, Bangladesh’s government is burdened with substantial climate change risk mitigation and adaption costs, such as levee construction and hurricane shelters. The Bangladeshi economy, dependent on vulnerable farmland, coastal cities, and biodiversity driven tourism, is also clearly strained by its increased exposure to climate change.
This research is supplemented by many other studies on climate change vulnerability and associated mitigation and adaption costs for the governments and economies of emerging economies. It is clear, then, that climate change is both associated with and a threat to conventional trends of greenhouse gas-‐dependent economic development. Reconciling the need for growth in these emerging economies with the global imperative of climate change mitigation, versed in understanding of the confluence of economic, societal, and environmental trends, is therefore a vital research frontier. III. Demographic Trends
Dynamics of Indian population growth currently follow the general expectations for modernizing states as outlined in the Demographic Transition
14 “Compilation and synthesis of sixth national communications and first biennial reports from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention.” Unfccc.int. United Nations. 24 November 2014. Web. 15 Awaji, Takehisa and Shun’ichi Teranishi. “The State of Environment in Asia: 2005/2006” Japan Environmental Council. April 7, 2005. Web.
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Theory. These trends, when coupled with India’s present lack of sufficient economic development, reflect the nature of urbanization policy reform, such as that outlined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative as more of a policy imperative than merely an election platform. In order to establish targeted performance metrics for Indian urbanization reform is it essential to understand the composition and spatial orientation of India’s growing labor force. Addressing these factors also reveals insight on the efficacy and impact of hitherto implemented policy.
According to World Bank data16, India’s crude death rate has remained low throughout the last two and a half decades while infant mortality rates, for children under 5, have dropped precipitously from a high in 1990 of 125.9 per 1000 births to 7.9 as of 2013 (See Figure 1). According to the same source, Indian fertility rates, both for the general population (See Figure 2) and for Adolescents aged 15-‐19 (See Figure 3) have gradually declined in the same time period. A legacy of the gradual decline in birth rates, India has experienced robust population growth through this period, adding approximately 364 million people to its population in two decades between 1991 and 201117. Extending this trend forward, it is projected that India’s population will increase to 1.4 billion by 2025 from the 1.2 billion recorded in the 2011 census18. Meanwhile, resultant from observed and sustained decline in total and adolescent fertility rates in India, the growth rate of India’s working-‐age population is expected to exceed that of its total population during the first half of the 21st century. India’s future population will, therefore, bear a “bulge” of working-‐age Indians, expected to increase from 761 million to 869 million from 2011-‐2020, representing nearly 64% of India’s total population. (See Figure 419). This represents both an enormous opportunity for economic growth and an onerous challenge for policy makers. Indian Residential Geography
India’s geographic population distribution has been historically characterized by high—but gradually declining—rates of rural inhabitation. Currently, India’s population is approximately two thirds rural and one third urban. Between 2001 and 2011, Indian Census data20 reported a growth of India’s rural population near 12.2%, increasing from approximately 753 million to 839 million. Meanwhile, India’s comparatively small urban population has grown rapidly near 31.8%, having increased from approximately 288 million to 382 million in the same time period. When compared historically, these statistics represent an accelerating trend of urbanization in India. 1901 and 1951 Indian Census data reports nearly 9 and over 8 out of every 10 Indians residing in rural environments, respectively.
With these broad parameters set, determining what developmental characteristics distinguish India’s rural and urban populations reveals insight both 16 “India Data Indicators.” Databank.worldbank.org. The World Bank. April 16th, 2015. Web. 17 “Population of India.” Indiabudget.nic. National Informatics Comission. 2007. Web. 18 "Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web. 19 ibid 20 “Rural Urban Distribution of Population.” Censusindia.gov. Census of India. 2011. Web.
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onto the causality of migration to and growth of India’s urban centers while also highlighting areas for strategic urbanization policy reform. While increasing over time in India’s rural and urban environments, Literacy rates represent some of the largest demographic imbalances in India. According to 2011 Indian Census data, rural literacy rates were 68.9% and 85.0% in urban settings. Yet more remarkable, Indian literacy also produces observable gendered effects in both rural and urban settings (See Figure 5), with female literacy as high as 79.9% in urban environments and as low as 58.8% in rural areas. This data is significant in that literacy is an indicator both of basic educational attainment and of employability. It is clear therefore, that urban environments are at worst associated with and at best conducive to the development of human capital. That comparative rates of literacy are even more divergent for India’s female population implies that an even greater incentive exists for women to live in urban environments.
Complementing this narrative, rates of rural and urban poverty in India offer yet more evidence of comparative economic disadvantage for India rural population. World Bank data from 201121 reports 21.9% of urban Indians and 25.7% of rural Indians as at or below the nationally determined poverty line of approximately US $1.25 income per day. This figure is based as a metric for food security—representing a minimum capital expenditure for an individual to survive. While rural and urban poverty have both declined in India—41.8% and 37.2% in 2004 respectively—the persistence of disparity in rates between the geographic regions implies a sustained incentive for rural-‐to-‐urban migration. Indian Economic Output & Labor Force Composition
Broadly separated into three sectors of agriculture, industry, and services, data on India’s sectorial economic output and labor force composition demonstrate the unmet need for efficiently delivered urbanization solutions both for households and the macro-‐economy. 2011 data from India’s National Planning Commission reports 52% of India’s working population employed in agriculture, 34% in services, and 14% in industry (See Figure 6). These findings are emblematic of a gradual but sustained convergence of Indian labor force participation rates between sectors over time (See Figure 7).
Agriculture
As the largest proportional employer of India’s workforce, the agricultural sector remains an essential component of India’s trajectory for socio-‐economic development. Research on productivity suggests that, throughout the 20th century, sustained prioritization by policy makers on the agricultural sector has dramatically improved average crop yields relative to land use for practically all-‐agricultural products22. This prioritization has come in the form of both federal and state level investment in irrigation, fertilizers, and pesticides technology coupled with subsidized credit lines for Indian farmers.
21 “Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population).” Data.worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2014. Web. 22 Datt, Ruddar and K.P.M. Sundharar. “Indian Economy.” S. Chand, University of Michigan. 1976. Web
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Despite systemic agricultural investment and implementation of pro-‐agricultural policy, India’s agricultural sector lags far behind its true productive potential—producing only 14% of total GDP (See Figure 8). A 2012 World Bank report that, “nearly three-‐quarters of India’s families depend on rural incomes […] the majority of India’s poor (some 770 million or about 70 percent) are found in rural areas23.” According to the report, the livelihoods of these populations are challenged by agricultural subsidy distortions, overregulation of farmer activity, insufficient infrastructure, convoluted value chains, and vulnerability to climate change. While the nuanced analysis of agricultural policy reform in India is beyond the scope of this paper, this assessment serves as evidence that India’s rural areas are failing to deliver sufficient economic development to its poor inhabitants, subsequently promoting their migration to urban centers in search of more gainful employment. Services
Challenging the prevailing conventions of economic development and modernization outlined in the Demographic Dividend Theory, India’s services sector has emerged over the last 30 years as the primary driver of economic growth, accounting for some 59% of GDP and 34% of labor force participation, prior to India’s industrial sector (See Figure 9). India’s services sector growth has also historically outpaced industry and agriculture, with growth of services-‐sector GDP exceeding that of overall GDP since 200124.
The rapid and unprecedented growth of India’s services sector has been linked through research to the development of Indian urban centers in the late 20th century. The 2012 report, Services Sector in India: Trends, Issues, and Way Forward by Arpita Mukherjee notes that liberalization of economic policy and the removal of FDI restrictions in the 1990s in India was associated with increased domestic and foreign demand for highly-‐skilled and low-‐cost labor characteristic of the services industry25. This trend created a feedback loop—concentrated particularly in cities—in which increased income allowed for greater domestic discretionary spending, like educational attainment, which in turn increased the value, and associated income, of domestically provided labor. Industry Unarguably the most important frontier for India’s continued economic emergence, the industry sector represents a grossly underdeveloped source of potential growth for an Indian economy struggling to provide enough jobs. Employing some 14% of India’s total workforce and providing 27% of GDP, the productive potential of this sector has historically been hampered by systemic inefficiencies. The 2012 McKinsey Global Institute synthesis report, “Fulfilling the
23 “India: Issues and Priorities for Agriculture.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. May 17, 2012. Web. 24 “Service Sector in India.” Ibef.org. India Brand Equity Foundation. February, 2015. Web. 25 “Mukherjee, Arpita. “Services Sector in India: Trends, Issues, and Way Forward. Ipec.gspia.pitt.edu. May 2012. Web.
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promise of India’s manufacturing sector26,” identifies—among other factors—the inability of manufacturers to aggregate land and operate in close proximity, an urgent and nationwide lack of sufficient infrastructure, and the insufficient supply of skilled labor as the main inhibitors to growth.
Subject to the same late 20th century reforms of economic policy and investment liberalization, India’s industry sector did not experience the same GDP and labor force participation growth as was seen in the services sector. This stagnation has been attributed to increased competition in manufacturing from China and associated pressure towards technological innovation and cost reduction, reducing employment generation in favor of the implementation of highly mechanized processes27. Conveniently, many solutions to these issues are complementary and natural outcomes resultant from needed urbanization policy reform. Among other objectives, Narendra Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative seeks to promote India’s industrial competitiveness by providing urban environments in which a versatile and skilled labor pool as well as a modernized industrial sector can be developed. IV. Environmental Trends Complicating the narrative of Indian urban development substantially, India’s increasingly prominent role as a contributor towards anthropogenic climate change through fossil-‐fuel dependent industrial processes is both closely associated with and perhaps the largest threat towards sustained economic growth and societal well-‐being in India. Severing the connection between greenhouse gas emissions and economic development has become a priority not only for India, but indeed for the global sustainability regime. COP 21 of the UNFCCC, to be held in Paris in December of 2015, has prioritized the submission of “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs) on green house gas (GHGs) emissions reduction measures. Aggregated, these commitments will, ideally, establish a legally binding and global agreement on emissions reductions—limiting global temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius above pre-‐industrial levels.
The climate change mitigation actions and commitments of India, along with China, Brazil, and other emerging economies have become central to the agenda of the UNFCCC as the efficiency through which they achieve economic growth is increasingly scrutinized. While comparatively contributing little to annual total global Carbon Dioxide emissions among G20 countries (See Figure 10, India highlighted in gold), its carbon intensity—the average rate at which India’s economy converts a metric ton of carbon dioxide to a thousand US dollars of GDP—is one of the worst in the worlds largest economies (See Figure 11, India highlighted in gold).
Inefficiencies in the economic delivery of Indian urbanization have more often than not have come coupled with environmental inefficiencies. As of 2013, the IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Report indicates that India’s contribution of 5% of global CO2 emissions shows a clear and rapid increasing trend, likely to
26 Dhawan, Rajat, Gautam Swaroop, and Adil Zainulbhai. “Fulfilling the promise of India’s manufacturing sector.” Mckinsey.com. McKinsey Global Institute. March 2012. Web. 27 “Economy of India.” Binet-repository.com. November 2013. Web.
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account for 10% of global emissions by 203528. Driving this rapid growth, India is dependent on coal, oil, and natural gas for 73% of its total energy consumption. This dependence produced both localized and global pollutant effects. The book Urban Transport Environment and Equity: The Case for Developing Countries by Eduardo Vasconcellos notes that poorer groups within developing countries, often dependent on walking or bicycling to work, are disproportionately affected by roadside air pollution from automobile gasoline combustion. These effects, of course, are concentrated in urban high-‐density settings29. This pollution also exacts a substantial economic cost, estimated to have cost US $500 billion in India in 2010 alone30.
Commissioned by the World Bank to assess the sectorial impacts of temperature increase scenarios in India ranging from 2°-‐4° Celsius, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics outlines a grim future for India’s urban, peri-‐urban, and rural environments given insufficient mitigation action and continuation of current trends of consumption. Their 2013 report, 4° Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience31, identifies a host of anthropogenic climate effects in the subcontinent such as changing rainfall patterns, air and water pollution, sea level rise, urban heat-‐islands (UHI), drought, and glacier melt. Combined these factors represent an imminent threat to the security of India’s agriculture and food production, energy and water access, and health resources.
V. India’s Infrastructure Bottlenecks & Historic Urban Development Framework Having established the broad dynamics underlying Indian labor force participation and economic growth trends, exploring under what conditions India’s promised demographic dividend can be delivered is essential to understanding the feasibility of proposed reform. Meeting this demand, a large and growing body of research conducted by a range of government, private, and civil-‐society institutions has assessed different facets of India’s historic urban development framework through the context of projected rapid urbanization growth and climate change. Reconciling these different narratives reveals insight on how India’s need for economic growth, increased urban space, and sustainability may be equitably delivered through centralized policy reform. Need for Infrastructure
28 “CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion.” Iea.org. International Energy Agency, 2013. Web. 29 “Vasconcellos, Eduardo. “Urban Transport Envrionment and Equity: The Case for Developing Countries.” Earthscan Publications, 2001. Web. 30 V., V. "India 2014 Economic Servey." (n.d.): n. pag. Oecd.org. Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2014. Web. 31 Colet, Arthur. "Turn down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience." The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (n.d.): n. pag. The World Bank, 2014. Web.
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The 2010 McKinsey Global Institute synthesis report, India’s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth32, projects that India’s urban population is set to increase from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million by 2030. As outlined earlier, factors contributing to this trend include greater access to education, lower rates of poverty, agricultural sector disincentives, and opportunities for urban-‐based employment in the services and industry sectors. The report estimates that, to meet demand for urban space, India’s government will need to partially finance and oversee the creation of “between 700 – 900 million square meters of residential and commercial space per year through 2030.” Connecting these spaces, India’s cities must also construct 350 – 400 kilometers of metros and subways as well as 19,000 – 25,000 kilometers of road lanes annually. India’s Historic Urban Development Framework Financing the creation of this infrastructure is projected to be exorbitantly expensive—costing approximately US $1.2 trillion in capital expenditure alone through 203033. These costs have been made more onerous, however, through the historic implementation of federal policy, preventing effective economic empowerment and sustainability of its cities. Factors promoting this dynamic include underinvestment in residential, commercial, and transit infrastructure, restrictive land use policy, spatial asymmetry in access to municipal services, and opaque municipal governance. Before considering the growth implications of India’s current efforts towards urban development, it is important to note that, in terms of per-‐capita investment, India’s cities lags well behind other globalized cities upon which much of proposed policy reform is modeled. For example, as of 2010 Indian per-‐capita capital expenditure on urban environments was US $17, compared to US $116 in China’s largest cities and US $292 in New York34. The implications of this lack of federally sourced infrastructure investment are far reaching. In regards to electricity access, India’s cities remains woefully under connected to reliable sources of power. Due to a lack of federal energy infrastructure investment nearly 20% of India’s urban and peri-‐urban population, some 75 million, were classified as “energy impoverished35” in 2010, lacking access to energy sources commensurate with their demonstrated need. Concerning urban water sources, while more than 90% of India’s urban population has access to drinking water, less than 50% of these sources are piped and no Indian cities receive piped water 24/736. Among these water sources, frequent raw sewage and industrial wastewater overflow in receiving bodies and groundwater sources is a health threat both to urban communities and to the aquatic biodiversity upon which many Indians depend.
32 Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.". McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web. 33 ibid 34 ibid 35 “Khandker, Shahidur. “Energy Poverty in Rural and Urban India: Are the Energy Poor also Income Poor?” worldbank.org. Development Research Group, Agriculture and Rural Development Team. November 2010. Web. 36 “Urban Water Supply in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. July 4, 2011. Web.
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Representing one of the largest challenges for increased urbanization in India, pricing for municipal services in India’s cities act as a regressive tax, conventionally placing the greatest burden on their poorest residents and promoting unauthorized connections to energy, water, and wastewater networks. For example, a 2013 World Bank study on electricity tariffs reported that the “average household consuming less than 30kWh a month pays more per unit of electricity than even the average household consuming more than 300kWh a month37.” This trend is self-‐perpetuating in that unauthorized connections reduce the ability of utility providers to recover costs and invest in system maintenance—leading to yet higher costs for system connection. India’s history of rigid land-‐use policy also represents a central inhibitor to severely needed urban development. Based off McKinsey Global Institute’s 2013 assessment of expected urban population growth and needed urban-‐spatial extension, it is clear that a comprehensive urban growth policy framework must outline mechanisms to both increase the population density of existing urban areas and also to acquire neighboring land. The 2013 World Bank Report, Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries38, notes that India lacks any independent institution through which to ensure the proper and transparent function of land-‐markets, instead governed under antiquated laws with many opportunities for corruption and collusion. Associated with long standing and deeply rooted concerns over infrastructure quality in modernizing states, restrictive Floor Space Ratio (FSI) requirements in India’s urban periphery are a major growth inhibitor. Because of these restrictions, high-‐density urban development in India is characterized by far lower rates of horizontal expansion than in developed states39, even though doing would use land more efficiently, utilizing on economies of scale to reduce operational costs per unit of land. Functionally this has meant that high value urban development in Indian cities is concentrated in the core—in which there are comparatively lax urban density requirements. Meanwhile, rigid FSI regulation on the urban periphery, combined with high rates of rural to urban migration, leads to the chaotic and unplanned growth of slums, often lacking any access to the electricity or water grid. This trend has observable welfare impacts. For example, in Bangalore, FSI-‐induced sprawl causes average welfare losses of 4.5 percent to household incomes owing to higher commuting costs40. Again these effects are regressive in that they disproportionately punish residents on the urban periphery, most frequently poor and formerly rural migrants seeking employment.
Given the growing fragmentation and sprawl of India’s largest cities, providing transit infrastructure and efficient modes of public transportation has become increasingly important to facilitating urban commerce. It is clear that compact and public transport-‐oriented urban development deliver economic and 37 Pargal, Sheoli and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee. “More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2014. Web. 38 “Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web. 39 ibid 40 ibid
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environmental benefits compared to the increasingly commonplace norm of sprawling private car-‐dependent accessibility models. Despite these incentives, India’s federal and urban governance bodies have approved the unrestricted growth of urban motorization, with some research suggesting that India’s urban vehicle fleet growth exceeds significant urban population growth, resulting in urban commutes 30 percent slower than in lesser-‐populated towns41.
Growth of urban private car ownership has also exacerbated India’s urban transit infrastructural shortcomings. Due to excessively high prices and asymmetrical service to the urban periphery, India’s urban public transport system is plagued by low-‐leveled ridership. These transit costs are not only imposed on citizens, but also on firms. Research from the World Bank in 2013 suggests that companies shipping products into and out from India’s urban centers face freight costs twice the national average and more than five times that as in the United States42. These costs have profound implications on the viability of India’s industrial sector, as the sale of manufactured products almost always has associated freight transport costs.
Underlying this litany of urban infrastructural, developmental policy, and municipal service shortcomings, the opacity through which urban policy is formulated—operating within India’s byzantine parliamentary structure—limits the equity and efficacy of delivered urban development solutions. For example, overlapping jurisdiction for regulation and development of Indian urban municipal resources has prevented the implementation of harmonized business and environmental regulations, arrangements for utility networking between cities, and connective transit infrastructure43. Transparency therefore remains a necessary complement to any re-‐envisioning of Indian urban development.
With this historical and environmental context in mind becomes clear that India’s cities are already struggling to provide a basic quality of life to the majority of its inhabitants, having underinvested in urban infrastructure and services. India’s new working age population will need substantially more jobs, housing, transit and utility services, and connectivity than currently available in India’s urban or rural environments. Therefore, meeting the demands of India’s rapidly growing working age population will require a re-‐envisioning and expansion of its urban infrastructure.
VI. Content of the Smart Cities Initiative Observing the significant socio-‐economic and environmental costs imposed upon Indian society due to insufficient, inequitable, and unsustainable urban development and recognizing the enormous potential for growth promised under India’s demographic dividend, it is clear that India needs a sweeping re-‐envisioning of urban development policy. Establishing salient linkages between urban design, 41 Badami, Madhav and M. Haider. “An Analysis of Public Bus Transit Performance in Indian Cities.” Academica.edu. Science Direct. 2007. Web. 42 “Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web. 43 Rao, Nirmala. “Reshaping City Governance: London, Mumbai, Kolkata, Hyderabad.” Routledge Contemporary South Asia Series. 2015. Web.
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economic benefit across strata of Indian society, and environmental sustainability will be essential to the feasibility of such a model.
Outlining, arguably, the most ambitious urban development project of the 21st century, Narendra Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative44 benchmarks the creation of 100 new “smart” cities—with modernized and environmentally sustainable transport, housing, utility, and connectivity services. This expansive policy framework has been announced to meet the demand for increased urbanization in India in the context of climate change.
Announced in 2014 during his campaign for Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative was initially released as a framework of performance metrics45, identifying urban economic drivers and outlining a strategy for the development of equitable infrastructure solutions. Among these metrics are the 24/7 provision of utility services such as electricity, water, and waste water treatment, expansion and reform of public transit systems to better serve urban poor, reform of land use policy, expansion of Wi-‐Fi and telephone connectivity networks, provision of health care and education services, and the implementation wherever possible of green technology and renewable energy solutions.
Importantly, these benchmarks were coupled with the release of a hierarchal financing strategy46, outlining federal allocation commitments and expectations for private sector participation to meet the US $1.2 trillion by 2025 capital expenditure estimate. According to this document, private sector participation, both through Public-‐Private Partnerships as well as through private investment, should account for 40% of all capital expenditures. This would then be coupled by federal government allocation of up to 40% of required funding through Viability Gap Financing47 (VGF) over the next 20 years. VGF in particular was included to target private sector sustainability ventures lacking the demonstrable credit worthiness to acquire financing on the open capital market. To meet the remaining 20% of associated costs for the Initiative, Urban Local Bodies (ULBs)—or municipal governments—were expected to raise funding for local urban development initiatives through the sale of undeveloped and state held land to the private sector for development.
Necessary policy complements to this financing strategy have also been outlined in the hierarchal financing strategy. Among these recommendations, betterment of land use policy (through relaxation of FSI regulation) to take advantage of higher property prices, implementation of full cost recovery tariff structures for municipal services, provision of SCI consultation opportunities to promote transparency, and increased interface of Indian state-‐level authorities with international financing bodies such as the United States and the UNFCCC Green
44 “Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web. 45 Arora, Swapnil. "Benchmarks for Smart Cities." (n.d.): n. pag. Indiansmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development, 2014. Web. 46 “Draft Concept Note on Smart City Scheme.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. March 2014. Web. 47 "Viability Gap Funding (VGF)." Arthapedia.in. India Economic Service, 2014. Web.
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Climate Fund48 hold particular promise in addressing systemic roadblocks to equitable urban development in India. VII. Progress and Criticisms of the Smart Cities Initiative Consultations and Forums Representing one of the more notable successes of the initiative so far, the Modi administration has facilitated a series of consultations and forums for community insight on policy implementation. These consultations have been held to identify parameters like infrastructure, citizen-‐centric services, and sustainability to be considered in policy making49. So far, the SCI has opened a number of online forums on different components of the initiative, where individuals can express their opinions50. Modi also began, as of December 2014, hosting consultations with high-‐ranking state and federal officials on the SCI51. While representing important progress, these consultations and forums—thus far—represent a policy failure. The online forum series has failed to engender large-‐scale community based discussion on components of the initiative while the more substantive series of consultations have not been made available for public attendance. Run under India’s Ministry of Urban Development, these consultations have not even equitably involved state-‐level representatives, inviting only selected state level authorities. Domestic Sustainability Investments Announced to set the tone for private sector involvement in the SCI, the Modi administration has set the ambitious target to add 100 GW total renewable energy capacity by 2022 to fuel India’s new cities—representing 3 times the amount currently available52. To catalyze investment, India’s largest power generation firm, NTPC, announced in 2015 its commitment to invest US $10 billion in renewable energy projects through 2020 in order to develop 10 GW of energy capacity53. The State Bank of India (SBI) has also committed US $12.5 billion in debt funding to renewable energy projects over the next few years54. While these commitments should be lauded for their ambitiousness and scale, the unfortunate truth of these announcements is that they are not binding, representing more a conviction of the Modi administration. While these investments should not be taken lightly, and have in fact begun to be utilized in development of
48 "Green Climate Fund." Unfccc.int. The United Nations, 2014. Web. 49 R, Smitri. "Modi Wants Parameters Identified for Smart Cities." Thehindu.com. The Hindu Times, 30 Dec. 2014. Web. 50 “Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web. 51 “PM begins intensive consultations on Smart City Initiative.” Narendramodi.in. 29 December, 2014. Web. 52 Mattai, Smitti. "India Plans Association Of Top 50 Solar Power Nations." CleanTechnica, 24 Feb. 2015. Web. 53 Mattai, Smiti. "India’s NTPC To Invest $10 Billion In Renewable Energy Projects." CleanTechnica, 23 Feb. 2015. Web. 54 Mattai, Smitti. "India's Largest Bank Commits $12.5 Billion For Renewable Energy Funding." CleanTechnica, 19 Feb. 2015. Web.
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the Delhi-‐Mumbai Industrial Corridor. It is unlikely that they will be delivered in their entirety. Delhi-‐Mumbai Corridor India has begun formally seeking bids for the construction of core infrastructure in the Delhi-‐Mumbai corridor. As a model project of the SCI, these investments will be directed towards the construction of an expansive road network, creation of utility services, administrative buildings, and waste-‐water treatment plants55 in and around the eagerly anticipated proposed Gujarat-‐Dholera International Finance Tech-‐City56.
These infrastructure investments at face value represent an important first step towards reconciling the need for economic growth and urbanization with sustainability. However, local opposition to the Delhi-‐Mumbai corridor has already gained traction, with local farmer advocacy groups organizing tractor rallies against the forcible acquisition of the local municipal government of farmer held land to then be sold as ULBs to the federally contracted property developers57. Concerns also remain over to ability of India’s domestic corporate and banking sectors to effectively manage development projects under the SCI. The 2014 GMT Research Report, Evaluating India: Rotten to the Core58, notes that Indian banks and corporate bodies have historically flattered their outlook to investors by acquiring cheap foreign funding and by obfuscating data on expenditure and losses. As a result there are fears that funding for the SCI could end up in the hands of India’s overleveraged and incompetent corporate and banking sectors, and therefore should not be trusted. This case study also demonstrates a failing of the SCI in that local municipal government was not adequately informed of planned regional development. Therefore the local community was not given a say of SCI fund allocation, effectively excluded from the consultation process. These concerns are perhaps more emblematic of the greater fear that the Smart Cities Initiative is an example of policy-‐need mismatch. India’s growing urban population is primarily driven by migration from rural areas to the periphery of cities. Already on the socio-‐economic fringes of society it seems as though these groups could be better served by policy promoting affordable housing, utilities, and employment opportunities as opposed to Wi-‐Fi connectivity and internet access. VIII. Policy Reform Recommendations and Conclusion Faced with immense potential for—and burden of—directing economic growth, India is a contemporary oddity. No other nation currently retains such a radically evolving internal demographic of such global economic importance with a 55 Seth, Dilasha. “Smart Cities: Gujarat’s Dholera zone sets pace for the flagship programme in new year.” Economictimes.indiatimes.com. 5 January, 2015. Web. 56 “Gujarat International Finance Tec-City.” Giftgujarat.in. 2011. Web. 57 "Farmers’ Tractor Rally from Vithlapur to Gandhinagar against the Mandal-Becharaji SIR on as Planned." Bilkulonline.com. Bilkul, 2014. Web. 58 Tulloch, Gillem “Evaluating India: Rottten to the Core.” Gmtresearch.com. GMT Research. 25 June 2014. Web.
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governance framework through which to pursue policy reform democratically. While migration to and growth of India’s urban centers represent an urgent policy reform imperative, doing so without consideration of its quickly receding environmental heritage would be just as much a failure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, therefore, has outlined an ambitious development framework to reconcile the demand for urbanization with sustainability through the Smart Cities Initiative. While some of its associated policy reform has fallen short it is important to note that the SCI is still in its early stages. The Modi administration can take valuable lessons from these experiences. Even though they have so far failed to engender systemic and community based involvement in the SCI, implementation of consultations and forums sets an important precedent for increasing stakeholder buy-‐in and investor follow through for subsequent projects in the initiative as they can be made integral contributors of urbanization solutions. Balancing the need for feedback with organizational strength, improving the transparency through which urbanization solutions are reached can best be achieved by the gradual extension of consultations and forums from only government officials to involve proven stakeholders of the community to participate. In this way, information on welfare altering policy can be quickly disseminated and communicated throughout the community without having to organize costly and time-‐inefficient public debates. Coordinating these forums and consultations with other state level governing bodies is another essential extension of transparency reform in the SCI. Doing so will provide an opportunity for discussion on and potential implementation of regionally connected systems of energy efficient municipal service provisioning and transport infrastructure.
Supplementary to this expanded commitment to public consultation, the Modi administration must back up its investment commitments with action on the ground to legitimize their heavy-‐handedness on cultural opposition like that seen in Gujarat-‐Dholera. In fact, delivering on community benefitting and equitably delivered investments, such as development of utility services, prior to acquisition of municipality held land could demonstrate the commitment of the federal government to equitable urban reform. Furthermore, by targeting policy reform on that most beneficial to poor communities, such as Land Policy and Urban Density Management Reform (Vertical expansion laws) in urban peripheries, India’s federal government can promote secure residency for the urban poor, associated with greater educational attainment and employment opportunities.
In loosening these restrictions, however, India’s federal government must be cognizant of the increased risk for domestic corporate and banking sector mismanagement. The Modi administration could address this issue at its core through implementation of corporate and banking stringency reform. By overseeing the repair and stringent evaluation of corporate balance sheets through effective regulators, the Modi administration can force companies to confront delivered system inefficiencies and make them subject to enforceable regulation. Banking stringency similarly can force banks to acknowledge non or underperforming loans and to raise capital. These steps, well within the purview of Modi’s administration, could discipline the corporate and banking sectors—promoting informed investment, transparency, and service performance.
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Lacking expanded formalized commitment to emissions reductions, enforcing the sustainability related components of the SCI is essential to demonstrating India’s commitment to meaningful participation in the global sustainability regime. This notion is especially significant given India’s rapid emergence as a primary contributor to global warming. Accomplished by liberalization of vertical density regulation, India can systemically cut down on urban sprawl—allowing basic services to be delivered more efficiently, both in regard to financial cost and energy expenditure. Secondarily the efficient development of greenfield-‐sites and prioritization whenever possible of brownfield sites could promote the conservation of natural surfaces and vegetation in the urban periphery—acting as an important carbon sink for greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainability within India’s new and renovated urban environments can also to be promoted through the strategic creation of compact and public transport oriented cities. For established cities this process may involve re-‐densification of urban centers—facilitated by vertical density management reform. Providing affordably priced and useful public transit services to the urban poor not only conserves energy, but also facilitates commerce and integration throughout the city due to reduced transport barriers. Notably unaddressed thus far by the SCI, the creation of national enabling frameworks for innovation and foreign investment could reduce some of the burden on India’s federal government to finance the sustainable development of urban space. In September of 2014, the US committed to contributing both through government technology transfer and private financial sector involvement to the development of efficient model smart cities in Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam, and Allahabad59. Institutionalizing and regularizing this form of cross governmental collaboration not only helps finance components of the SCI, but also builds legitimacy in the international sustainability regime by demonstrating commitment to environmental conservation. India could also partner with the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change Green Climate Fund60, recently capitalized at US $10 billion to distribute loan assistance for developing countries pursuing climate change mitigation and adaption. While understandably beyond the scope of the initiative, continuing to develop India’s rural development will remain a vital complement to Indian urbanization reform. Given that 52% of India’s labor force is currently employed in agriculture, investing in agricultural technology to increase productivity could not only reduce migration pressure on Indian cities, but could also promote long term crop-‐yield resilience to climate change.
Reviewing the political, environmental, and socio-‐economic dynamics underlying India’s record of urban development and governance, it becomes clear that, as written, Modi’s Smart Cities Initiative is insufficient to meet the challenge of directing India towards sustainable and equitable urban development alone. Improving outcomes of the SCI will require an economy and society-‐wide re-‐
59 Liu, Amy, and Robert Puentes. "Delivering on the Promise of India's Smart Cities." The Brookings Institution, 20 Jan. 2015. Web. 60 “Green Climate Fund.” News.gcfund.org. UNFCCC. Web.
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envisioning of urban development and sustainability policy. Having established a willingness to lead at the federal level, Modi can improve SCI outcomes further by engaging with empowered municipal governance bodies—delivering tailored solutions for the specific economic and cultural needs of India’s diverse society while also contributing meaningfully to the mitigation of and adaption to regional and global climate threats.
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IX. Appendix
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Death/M
ortality Rate (per 1,000 people)
Year
Figure 1: Indian Crude Death Rate and Infant Mortality Rate (under 5)
Crude Death Rate
Infant Mortality Rate
World Bank
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Births per wom
an
Year
Figure 2: Indian Total Fertility Rate
Fertility Rate (births per woman
World Bank
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Births per 1,000 wom
en ages 15-‐19
Year
Figure 3: Indian Adolescent Fertility Rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-‐19)
Adolescent Fertility Rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-‐19)
World Bank
Figure 4: India’s Population Pyramid: 2011 vs. 2026 McKinsey Global
Institute
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Source: NIC Figure 5:
52%
14%
34%
Indian Labor Force Division (2011)
Agriculture (243 million)
Industrial (65.38 million)
Services (158.78 million)
Figure 6:
Source: NIC
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2012
% of Total Workforce
Year
Figure 7: Indian Employment by Sector
Agriculture
Services
Industry
World Bank
14%
27% 59%
Figure 8: Indian Sectoral Contribution to GDP (%)
Agriculture
Industry
Services
2011: Indian Planning Commission
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Figure 9:
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million Metric Tons
Year
Figure 10: Annual Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Energy (G20 countries)
Canada Mexico United States Argentina Brazil France Germany Italy Turkey United Kingdom Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Australia China India Indonesia Japan South Korea
EIA
National Informatics Center, Indian Planning Committee
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Thousand U.S.
dollars (reference year 2005)
Year
Figure 11: Indian Economy Carbon Intensity
Canada Mexico United States Argentina Brazil France Germany Italy Turkey United Kingdom Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Australia China India Indonesia Japan South Korea
EIA
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