Download - Phuong thailand - feb 16-17,2012
THE 5TH THAI-MALAYSIAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES
RE-MAKING HISTORICAL MEMORY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY FEBRUARY 16 – 17, 2012
AN ENCOUNTER WITH INVENTED MEMORY
IN MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICY
THE CASE OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM
NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG - VIETNAM
WARM UP!
LET’S SUGGEST SOME CHARACTERISTICSABOUT OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
#1 NETWORKS
CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
#2 LIQUIDS
CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
#3 RISKS
CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
#1 DECENTRED & FLAT#2 NOT KEEP ANY SHAPE FOR LONG#3 UNFORESEEN RISKS IN GLOBAL DIMENSION
LET’S IMAGINE COFFEE
WHY NEED TO FIND OUT THE SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR VIETNAM COFFEE INDUSTRY?
AN IMPORTANT PART OF VIETNAM ECONOMYUSD 2.7 BILLIONS IN 2011 (3% OF THE TOTAL EXPORT
EARNINGS)~ 300,000 HOUSEHOLDS, > 600,000 WORKERS
COFFEE PRODUCERS & GOVERMENT
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF COFFEE PRODUCTION
•CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
PROVINCES (ROBUSTA)
•SOUTHEAST PROVINCES
(ROBUSTA)
•NORTHERN PROVINCES
(ARABICA)
ROBUSTA PRODUCTION BETWEEN THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD OF 1981/86 AND 2005/10
SOURCE: ICO
OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINDSIN MY MA THESIS
CREDIT PROVISION & PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH
CENTRALLY-PLANNED ECONOMY MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY
ECONOMIC MINDSET
NEW INSOLVED INFORMATION
ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN VIETNAM1979 - 1986
ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH
• NO CHRONOLOGY• FINDING OUT FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES• MULTI-DISCIPLINES (ECONOMICS, HISTORY, ETC.)• VARIOUS SOURCES (INTERVIEWS, NEWSPAPERS,
GOVERMENTAL DOCUMENTS, ETC.)
RE-MAKING MEMORY OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM
INVENTED TRADITION NEW ARRIVAL CUSTOM
COFFEE TRADING
FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETYNETWORKS, LIQUIDS, RISKS
PHYSICAL COFFEE FLOWS VS FUTURES CONTRACT FLOWS
FARMER2 TONS/HA
EXPORTER6 CONTAINERS x 21 TONS
= 126 TONS
FUTUTES CONTRACT
1 LOT = 10 TONS
FUTUTES CONTRACT
1 LOT = 10 TONS
FUTUTES CONTRACT
1 LOT = 10 TONS
FUTUTES CONTRACT
1 LOT = 10 TONS
FARMER2 TONS/HA
FARMER2 TONS/HA
WHAT IS YOUR DECISION?
AN OWNER OF DAKLAK-BASED PRIVATE ENTERPRISE
‘SO MANY COMPANIES AND
PEOPLE IN DAKLAK LOST
HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS VND
BECAUSE OF USING FUTURES
CONTRACT IN LIFFE OR ICE. IT IS
BAD! I NEVER USE IT’
A VIETNAMESE CEO OF A 100 % FOREIGN COMPANY IN DAKLAK
‘LIFFE OR ICE IS THE BIGGEST
MARKETS ON THE WORLD. YOU
THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE
RANGE OF CHOICES ONCE
ENTERING INTO IT’
* LIFFE OR ICE: THE TWO MAIN FUTURES EXCHANGES OF TRADING COFFEE
WHAT IS THEDECISION?
FUTHER INVESTIGATION NEEDED…
Q&ATHANK YOU
NGUYEN HOANG MY [email protected]