Pilot modelling of transport and deposition of black carbon:
case of shipping in the Russian Arctic
Irina Morozova Head of Department for modelling transboundary air pollution and accounting of national emissions,
Dr. Vladimir Zubov
Julia IgnatEvascientific researcher
Scientific Research Institute for atmospheric air protectionSaint Petersburg,
Russia
WORKSHOP:
IMPROVING BLACK CARBON EMISSION ESTIMATES & ABATEMENT
13th-14th May 2015
Milan 2015
Arctic shipping routes
2
I route – Murmansk-Dudinka-Murmansk;
II route - Arkhangelsk-Dudinka-Arkhangelsk;
III route - Arkhangelsk-Sabetta-Arkhangelsk;
IV route – Transit routes along the NSR*
(Murmansk-Providence).
*- Northern Sea Route
Murmansk Arkhangelsk
Dudinka
Sabetta
Providence WWF interactive map was used for linking
shipping routes with the modelling grid
Estimating of BC emissions from shipping
BC emissions from shipping were estimated
following formula:
Ei – BC emissions, t;
FC – fuel burnt, t;
EFi – emission factor
J.J. Corbett* coefficient for BC emissions
in the Arctic conditions
– 0.35 kg of BC per 1 t of diesel burnt –
was applied
* - Corbett, J.J., et al., Arctic shipping emissions
inventories and future scenarios. Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 2010(10): p. 9689-97043
Shipping routes BC emissions, kg
I Route 7700
II Route 1372
III Route 6149
IV Route 5880
21101кг
BC emissions as estimated
21101 kg
Shares
IV route28%
I route36%
II route7%
III route29%
Open Unified EMEP ModelMeteorological Synthesizing
Centre - West (MSC-W)
4
BC transport and deposition modelling
5RED LINE – original EMEP grid boundary
Extended EMEP gridThe extended EMEP grid covers most of the Russian territory with an exception of the Far East Federal District and a part of the Siberian Federal District
Deposition of BC emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic
2013, mg/m2 /year
6
Based on modelling results
total deposition of BC
emitted from Russian ships
on snow/ice in the Arctic
equals
18.8 t
7
Mean annual concentrations of BC in the air emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic, μg/m3
Maximum
concentration of BC is
formed in the air over
the central part of
Kara Sea –
0.00022 μg/m3
8
Shipping BC emissions impact assessment on climate change
Decrease of albedo and change of temperature in the Arctic region were
used as indicators to model impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping
Decrease of ice albedo as result of BC emissions from Russian ships, %
Maximum decrease of ice albedo
– 0.01% (Kara Sea area).
Mean value of decrease of ice
albedo – 0.001%.
Additional warming in the Arctic
Region caused by BC emissions
from Russian ships could be
around 0.0003С.
8
9
Conclusions
BC emissions from Russian shipping in ice conditions of the Arctic (270 days) - 21 t
• Conclusion 1. Modelling results suggest that BC emitted by Russian shipping
mostly gets deposited on ice in the Russian Arctic, estimated quantity – 18.8 t,
including 10 t (53%) that is deposited within 700-1000 km along the route.
• Conclusion 2. BC emissions from Russian shipping do not have any significant
impact on albedo of ice in the Arctic region. Maximum decrease of ice albedo
as a result of BC deposition equals 0.01%, mean value – 0.001%.
• Conclusion 3. Potential impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping on the
change of temperature in the Arctic region is considered negligible – 0.00030C.