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Poland Commercial Real Estate Market
Hadley DeanManaging Partner, Poland
7th December, 2007Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference 2007
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Colliers International – facts sheet
www.colliers.com
Colliers International Poland is an independent member of COLLIERS MACAULAY NICOLLS
(CMN)
334 offices in 27 countries
$688 million in revenue
28 m. sqm under management
6,398 professionals
$39 billion in transaction value
Colliers International Europe’s Offices
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Colliers International Poland – Specializations
Investment Advisory Group Office Tenant Representation Industrial Tenant Representation Retail Leasing Property Valuation Building Consultancy Property Management Hospitality Advisory Research & Consulting
We accelerate yoursuccess by making ourKnowledge your property.
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Commercial Markets by Colliers International
Office Market Trends
Industrial Market Trends
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Office Market Overview
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Warsaw Office Market 2007 Q3 SnapshotWarsaw Office Market 2007 Q3 Snapshot
TOTAL STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)
VACANCY RATE Q3 2007 (%)
VACANCY RATE Q3 2006 (%)
2,690,704 3.6 6.6
SUBURBAN STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)
SUBURBAN VACANCY RATE Q3
2007 (%)
SUBURBAN VACANCY RATE Q3
2006 (%)
1,599,372 3.4 5.5
CBD STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)
CBD VACANCY RATE
Q3 2007 (%)
CBD VACANCY RATE
Q3 2006 (%)
1,091,332 3.8 8.3
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Warsaw Office Market Leasing Activity*
*tenant deals signed (i.e. new tenants, renegotiations, expansions, & owner-occupier investments)
050
100150200250300350400450500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f
sq
m (
00
0s
)
CBD Suburbs
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Warsaw Office Stock & Vacant Space
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
sqm
(00
0)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
sqm
(00
0)
Stock Vacant Space (right-hand scale)
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Office Rents in Warsaw Q3 2007
DISTRICT
AVERAGE HEADLINE
RENT LEVELS (€)
AVERAGE EFFECTIVE
RENT (€)
GROWTH IN EFFECTIVE RENTS Y-O-Y
(%)
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
26.36 24.85 65
SUBURBS 15.54 14.35 14
WARSAW (CITY
AVERAGE) 20.95 19.60 44
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Trends in the Warsaw Office Market
Very tight supply in CBD until at least 2010
Negligible levels of vacant space, rising rents
Flood of new projects in south and south west of city (400,000 sqm over 36 months)
Vacancy rates to rise, but only slightly. High demand will support rents in the suburbs
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Regional Office Market 2007Regional Office Market 2007
CITYTOTAL STOCK
(SQM)VACANCY RATE (%)
KRAKOW 201,960 0.40
WROCLAW 158,510 2.40
TRICITY 141,400 4.50
POZNAN 113,130 4.00
LODZ 52,600 2.50
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Trends in the Regional Office MarketTrends in the Regional Office Market
Supply boom - (notably Wroclaw and Lodz)
High demand will hold rents firm in most locations
Developers count on continued flow of BPO investments (particularly Lodz and Wroclaw), vulnerable to downturn in demand
Poznan market remaining tight, rents rising
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Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals
PROVIDENT POLSKAColliers Office Department represented Provident Polska in negotiations of office lease.
Total area leased: 6,600 sqmClient: Provident Brokers: Marcin Kania, Paweł Skałba
CANAL+Advised by Colliers International CANAL+ decided to start the built-to-suite office building in the Stegny district of Warsaw.
Total area leased: 14,100 sqmClient: Canal+ CyfrowyBroker: Paweł Skałba
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Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals
CAPGEMINIColliers International assisted Capgemini, a world leader in IT consulting and outsourcing services, in its lease of over 10,000 sqm in Rondo Business Park in Kraków.
Total area leased: app. 10,000 sqmClient: CapgeminiBroker: Marek Ciunowicz
NESTLÉ POLSKAColliers Office Department represented Nestlé Polskain the renegotiation of their lease in UBC I & UBC II,office buildings located in Mokotów district.
Total area leased: 5,300 sqmClient: Nestlé PolskaBroker: Paweł Skałba
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Industrial Market
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Industrial National Snapshot – H1 2007
RegionExisting
m2
Under construction
m2
Plannedm2
Vacancy rate Average rent
Warszawa 1 439 951 224 110 1 060 699 5,0% 2.70 - 5.00 €
Silesia 400 958 171 529 477 000 4,5% 3.15 €
Poznań 420 048 196 901 707 000 9,9% 2.90 €
Łódź 301 095 174 115 890 000 3,9% 2.65 - 3.20 €
Wrocław 203 867 104 330 375 972 4,3% 2.90 €
Kraków 19 000 0 150 000 0,00% 3.40 €
Gdańsk 53 000 35 800 37 000 9,9% 3.10 €
Other 15 920 0 228 000 0,00% -
TOTAL 2 853 839 906 785 3 925 671 7,51% -
Road Infrastructure
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Modern Warehouses – National Stock & Pipeline
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
SQ
M (
00
0s
)
Planned [m2]
Existing [m2]
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f
SQ
M (
000s
)
Warsaw Regions
National Market – Leasing Activity
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Industrial Land Prices
TORUN
SZCZECIN
€15- €30€20-
€35
Zone I€45- €60
€30- €50
€15- €30
€15- €25 €10-
€15
€15- €25
€10- €15
Zone II€18- €30
Zone III€10- €25
IND
US
TR
IAL
LAN
D P
RIC
ES
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Special Economic Zones for New InvestmentsSpecial Economic Zones for New Investments
14 areas across Poland offering enhanced economic conditions
Incentives include:
Corporation or income tax discounts
Fully prepared land with administrative clearance
for investment at competitive prices
Free assistance in completing administrative formalities
Exemption from real estate taxes in certain districts
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Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals
PREGISPregis, represented by Colliers Internationalin the lease transaction, became one of the first tenants for production space in Tulipan Park Gliwice.
Client: PregisTotal space leased: 16,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,
Maciej Chmielewski
UNILEVERColliers Industrial Department assisted Unileverin its lease of 42,000 sqm of industrial space inCentral Poland.
Client: UnileverTotal space leased: 42,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,
Maciej Chmielewski
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Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals
FIEGEAdvised by Colliers International Poland FiegeDecided to lease 30,000 sqm of warehouse spacein Silesia region.
Client: FiegeTotal space leased: 30,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,
Maciej Chmielewski
NESTLÉColliers International Poland represented NestléPolska in renegotiating their lease agreement of20,000 sqm of warehouse space in Poznań.
Client: NestléTotal space leased: 20,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,
Maciej Chmielewski
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Thank you for your attention!
Hadley Dean, Managing [email protected]. +48 22 331 78 00
www.colliers.com
Our Knowledge is your Property