Poland Rise of the Right
• Geography
• History • Ceased to exist as a Nation several times • Events shaped view of ideology
• Battle of Vienna 1683 Islamism • Battle of Warsaw 1920 / Post WW2 Communism • WWII 1939-45 Nazism
• Current Situation • Rule of Law • EU/Globalization vs
Polish Nationalism
East-Central Europe (120,726 sq mi), mostly temperate climate. GR137K
Almost unbroken plain from Baltic Sea in north, to Carpathian
Mountains in south. Within the plain, terrain variations run in bands
east to west. Numerous invasions.
Carpathian Mtnsn
Vistula River
• 38.5 M pop, 6th populous in EU • GR 80, FR 67, IT 60, UK 64, SP 46. RU 143
• W Slavic ethnic group, share common ancestry, culture, hist, religion & Polish language
• 2011 96.88% reported Polish
• 87% Roman Catholic, then Polish Orthodox & Protestant
• Polish US immigrate 3 waves 2.5M Late 1800s to WW I, After World War II, after fall of USSR
• WW2 Poland lost more killed proportionally than any other country
>6M 1/5 population
Poland
• 8th largest economy in European Union
• High-income economy along with high standards of living, life quality, safety, and economic freedom
• A developed educational system
• Free university education, state-funded social security & universal health care
• Member of Visegrád Group 1991 (V4 93), NATO 1999, European Union 2004, Schengen Area 2007
• Not a member of Euro-Zone (Zloty $.27)
Lost 1/3
people
Damage
more
extensive
than
WWII
Lost
status as
great
power
Robbed
of its
riches &
most
stolen
items
never
returned
In summer of 1683, 300,000 warriors of Ottoman Empire
began siege of Vienna. The fall of the city would have
opened the way to conquer Europe. On September 11 the
Polish Cavalry arrived and defeated the Turks.
Partitions
of
Poland
Elimination
of
sovereign
Poland and
Lithuania
for 123
years
1804
Austrian
Empire
No
sovereign
Poland
1914
WWI
Central
Powers
Attack
Russia
1917
Russian
Revolution
Mar 1918
Bolshevic
Peace
Treaty w
Germany
Treaty
Brest-
Litovsk
Russian
Civil War
Reds v
Whites
continues
Battle of
Warsaw
“Miracle
on the
Vistula”
1920
Nov 1918
WWI ends
Treaty of
Versailles
Poland
re-
emerged
1919
Soviets
won
against
Whites
Battle of Warsaw 1920
• Summer 1920, Soviets invaded Poland. Polish army retreated west - on verge of disintegration & decisive Soviet victory
• Lenin/Soviets expected fall of Polish capital to spark international series of communist uprisings & allow Red Army to join German Revolution
• Aug 12-25, Red Army approached Warsaw. Poles broke Soviet ciphers & counter-attacked forcing Soviets into a disorganized withdrawal.
• Defeat crippled Red Army; Forced Lenin to rethink objective of achieving global socialism. More Polish victories saved independence & led to peace treaty w Soviet Russia & Soviet Ukraine later in year, securing Polish state's eastern frontiers until 1939.
WWII
Germany
&
USSR
Invade
&
Divide
Poland
Molotov– Ribbentrop Pact
Soviets
deported
100s of
thousands
Executed
thousands
of Polish
prisoners
of war
Katyn
massacre
Polish
Govern in
Exile
Free Polish
Army, Navy
&
Air Force
Europe’s
most
effective
Resistance
Movement
Warsaw Uprising Aug 1 – Oct 2, 1944
• Soviet army on outskirts. Poles wanted to liberate the city themselves to show Poland still was a nation. Leverage against Soviets.
• During 63 days of fighting 16,000 resistance fighters were killed & 6,000 badly wounded.
• 150,000 - 200,000 civilians were killed.
• 85% of city was destroyed.
• Warsaw’s entire population was expelled & sent to transit camp Durchgangslager 121. Of 350,000–550,000 civilians who passed through the camp, 90,000 sent to labor camps in Third Reich, & 60,000 shipped to death & concentration camps
Yalta
Conference
Ignored
Polish exile
govern
Betrayal by
the Allies.
USSR took E
land & gave
Poland
Ger land in W
Communist
Gov
installed
Warsaw
Pact
No $ paid
to re-build
Solidarity
1989
Polish
labor union
Gdansk
shipyards
Lech
Wałęsa
1st union
not
controlled
communist
Russia Semi-free
election &
Solidarity-
led coalition
government
w Wałęsa
as President
Constitution
• 1997 Current Constitution adopted by National Assembly & approved by national referendum
• Transform into a “democratic state,” from one-party to multi-party system, & from socialism to a free market economic system
• Guarantees wide range of individual freedoms. Judicial branch plays minor role in politics, apart from Constitutional Tribunal, which can annul laws that violate freedoms in constitution.
Government • Semi-presidential representative democratic republic
• President is head of state & commander of armed forces. • Elected for 5 yrs • Power to veto legislation passed by parliament, can be
overridden by 3/5s majority, can dissolve parliament under certain conditions
• Prime Minister is head of government which consists of Council of Ministers chosen from majority party or coalition, in lower house of parliament (Sejm)
• 2 chambers of parliament, Sejm & Senate. Sejm elected by proportional representation, (parties must have 5% of national vote to seat). Elections every 4 yrs.
• Currently 5 parties represented.
• PiS Law and Justice right-wing populist, national-conservative, & Christian democratic political party.
• Defeated PO Civic Platform 2015
• Largest party, 237 in Sejm & 66 in Senate
• Jaroslaw Kaczyniski
• NOP National
Rebirth of
Poland
ultranationalist
far-right,
neofascist,
nat’l
revolutionary
political party
• 2015 no seats
in Parliament
• PO Civic Platform
liberal-conservative
& Christian
democratic political
party. • 2007-2015 in Power w
Donald Tusk as Prime
Minister. 2014 Tusk
stepped down to be
President of EU Council.
• 2nd largest party 138 in
Sejm & 33 Senate.
Pres Andrzej
Duda
PM Mateusz
Morawiecki
Poland’s Andrej Duda (Since 2015)
• Seeks military cooperation with US. Purchased US Patriot missile system to counter Russian military threats
• Wants to Invest $2 billion to build a US Division (15,000) military base “Fort Trump” • US Brigade (4000) rotates through Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria
& Romania on continuous basis
• Spends >2% of GDP for own defense above that required of a NATO member. • Visegrád Battlegroup (Regiment (3700), now an EU Battlegroup)
led by Poland with Czech Rep, Slovakia & Hungary. 1991- V4 1993
• 18 EU Battlegroups (Most Bn size 1500) rotate w 2 on ready status
64
President Andrej Duda, Con’t…
• Seeks closer ties with Baltic states to counter perceived Russian threats. “We are the border of NATO – building anti-Russian alliance”. EU Rotational Baltic Air Policing / Eu Battlegroup
• Seeking to counter dependence on Russian energy. GE invested $2 billion in conventional energy plant there. Building pipeline from Baltic Sea to Black Sea.
• Heir to Lech Kaczynski – killed in plane crash in Russia in 2010 with other high gov’t. officials on their way to attend an annual commemoration service for victims of Katyń massacre
• Nemesis: Donald Tusk, former PM 2007 to 2014 and co-founder & chairman of Civic Platform who became head of European Council since 2014.
• Enjoys 75% approval rating.
65
“Rise of Right” Issues • Rule of Law
• Islamic Immigration
• Media Control
• Judicial Independence
• “Holocaust bill”
• Reparations from Germany?
• “Neo-Nazi, Fascist” Demonstrations
• Dispute with EU
• Globalism v Nationalism
Islamic Immigration
•Refuse to accept EUs Mid East immigration quotas
•EU Position: Humanitarian Issue. EU solve together
•Poland’s Position:
•Germany caused problem by accepting refugees & did not consult with other nations –
•Polish National Sovereignty
vs European Union
Germany’s problem
Polish Position (cont)
• Islamic migrants do not integrate and are threat to Western culture, values and security
• Not just a religion but a political Ideology
• Poland saved Eur from Islamic rule at Battle of
• 2,000 refugees predominantly from Syria and Eritrea (vetted and Christian) https://www.ft.com/content/6edfdd30-472a-11e5-b3b2-1672f710807b
Vienna. Not going to just invite them in now.
“… Muhammad is the prophet of all people. He superseded all previous religions…
We have 50 million Muslims in Europe. There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe – without swords, without guns, without military conquests. The 50 million Muslims of Europe will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades.”
- Muammar Gaddafi 2006
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCGYKSEsYFM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-politics/verdict-expected-in-blasphemy-case-against-jakartas-christian-governor-idUSKBN1842GE
May 8 2017
"Ahok" told group of fishermen that politicians who
tell them that the Quran forbids voting for non-
Muslims are lying to them.
• …there are now 1.5 M to 300,000-400,000 Ukrainians in Poland
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/13/ukraines-refugees-find-solace-in-poland-europes-most-homogenous-society
May 13, 2015
• Since Law & Justice (PiS) took power, Polish TV became battleground between Polish authorities & European institutions
• 14 state operated channels & 100s of independent commercial channels.
• Duda signed laws enabling government to appoint heads of public TV & radio, as well as civil service directors.
• Treasury minister can hire & fire broadcasting chiefs - a role currently done by a media supervisory committee.
• PiS’ move to control state broadcasters offers what critics call a conservative, nationalist message to match their worldview
Jul 3,2016
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/04/world/europe/polands-conservative-government-puts-curbs-on-state-tv-news.html
• 163 people, including news anchors & reporters fired or quit state broadcasting. “They did not want to participate in political pacification of media.”
• PiS: “..national media..must be representative of government..If don’t agree, you don’t have to work here.”
• Laws don’t effect internet or social media. Hardly censorship. Did cancel use of public institutions to present sexually explicit on-stage acts in play by Nobel Laureate Elfriede Jelinek.
• BBC's Adam Easton in Warsaw says incoming government’s put their own people in to run state companies, institutions & public media - but PiS is going faster & further
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/04/world/europe/polands-conservative-government-puts-curbs-on-state-tv-news.html
Media
• Young are tuning out TV in favor of social media, but PiS focuses on TV: “Older people are used to TV.”
• All TV audiences have declined. State broadcaster TVP1 — for years most popular channel — places third, behind two commercial channels.
• 47-nation Council of Europe, Eur’s leading human rights body, demanded transparent procedures for selecting new National Media Council. Members should be qualified, independent & reflect social diversity. Content should be impartial & diverse.
• “Liberal democracy is in crisis. More vision, less television.”
Media
Judicial Independence • Supreme Court 72 Judges
• Constitutional Tribunal 15 Judges
1. PiS govern refused to seat judges appointed by the previous party
• 2015 “Nov three & Dec two” Judges. Civic Platform Parliament passed law to allow appointment of all five Judges
• Issue referred to prior Tribunal
2. Installed its own judges
• PiS passed own law: Invalidated 5 appointees & named own 5
3. Refused to recognize the rulings of the court until its majority had been installed.
• Prior court ruled Nov three valid but not Dec two
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/world/europe/poland-court-crisis-constitutional-tribunal.html
Judicial Independence • New laws
• Require 15-strong court to reach 2/3 majority with at least 13 members present, in order to pass rulings.
• Lower retire age of Supreme Court judges from 70 to 65.
• Speed departure of 1/3 of judges appointed by previous govern, allow appointment by current leadership.
• Includes Chief Justice Malgorzata Gersdorf who refused to step down, citing constitution that she serve 6 yr term til 2020.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-takes-poland-court-over-judicial-independence-132926129.html
Judicial Independence
• Tribunal judges are supposed to choose new Tribunal President.
• Parliament passed law that created new position not foreseen in the Constitution: “acting president of the Tribunal.”
• President Andrzej Duda chose Justice Przylebska
• She reconfigured how panels of judges were selected to sit on specific cases.
• Eur Commission referred the case to the European court.
Treaty on European Union • Article 2: Member states uphold EU's founding values
(respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law & respect for human rights)
• Article 7: Procedure to suspend certain rights from member • Enacted when EU Identifies member persistently
breaching values • European Council can vote to suspend rights such as
voting & representation in the Council. NO mechanism to expel a member.
• Identifying the breach requires unanimity (excluding concerned state), but sanctions require only a qualified majority.
• Affected state still bound by the obligations treaties, & Council may alter or lift sanctions by majority.
• Hungary, right-wing populist Viktor Orban, vowed to veto
Judicial Independence •Jul 2017 US State Dept
•Polish government has continued to pursue legislation that appears to undermine judicial independence and weaken the rule of law in Poland. We urge all sides to ensure that any judicial reform does not violate Poland’s constitution or international legal obligations and respects the principles of judicial independence and separation of powers
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/07/272791.htm https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-takes-poland-court-over-judicial-independence-132926129.html
“Holocaust Law” • 2018 Polish law outlaws blaming Poland for crimes committed
during Holocaust.
• Up to 3 yrs prison or fine for accusing Polish state or people of involvement or responsibility for Nazi atrocities during WWII.
• Harshest penalties: those who call Nazi concentration camps such as Auschwitz “Polish death camps.” Only scientific research into the war & artistic work are exempted.
• Term “Polish death camp” has riled both current nationalist govern & its liberal predecessors. Polish foreign ministry issued 913 statements 2008-15 in response to term use. “We have to send a clear signal to world that we won’t allow Poland to continue being insulted.”
• Bill sparked outrage in Israel after passed Jan 26, (eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day). Called attempt to whitewash role some Poles had in detention & killing of Polish Jews during World War II.
time.com/5128341/poland-holocaust-law/
Polish Position • Germany killed 2.9 M
Polish Jews (90% of pre-war Poland’s Jewry),
plus
• 2.8 M ethnic non-Jewish Poles including academics, doctors, lawyers, nobility, priests & others.
Polish Position • Poland physically annexed by Third Reich. Not even a
puppet government. Holocaust perpetrated by Nazis. • Fewer than .1% of Poles collaborated with Germans. • By nationality, Poles represent largest number of people
who rescued Jews during the Holocaust. • 6,620 Poles awarded title of Righteous Among the Nations
by Israel–more than any other nation. • Estimates say up to 3M Poles involved in rescuing & credit
Poles with sheltering up to 250,000 Jews. • Polish underground advised Allies of camps & requested
bombing. • Jun 2018 Law amended to remove prison
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-softens-controversial-holocaust-law-after-backlash-mateusz-morawiecki/
Warsaw revives call for German WWII reparations
photoshopped like Auschwitz gate “Arbeit macht frei.” telewizjarepublika.pl/ile-sa-nam-winni-niemcy-wideo,52514.html
• PiS leader Kaczyński says ‘Poland never renounced its compensation claim.’ Accuses Berlin of abusing its influence in EU to sway debate about Poland’s infringement of EU rule of law standards.
• German says issue was “dealt with conclusively in the past.”
• 1945 Potsdam conference Allies agreed Soviet Union would get reparations, & that part should be paid to Poland.
• 1953 Soviet Union gave up reparations that might impoverish its East German satellite, & communist-ruled Poland followed suite. PiS says communist regime “was a Soviet colony”
https://www.politico.eu/article/warsaw-revives-call-for-german-wwii-reparations/
Reparations • 1990 Ger reunification & Pol-Ger treaty guaranteed post-war
borders. 500 M Deutsche marks to foundation in Warsaw & 2B DM to Polish victims of Nazi forced labor.
• 2004 after joining EU, Polish govern confirmed it wouldn’t seek reparations.
• Germany is crucial economic partner for Poland, buying quarter of all Polish exports, and was key advocate of Poland’s joining EU.
• Compensation issue is opening fissures within government & within PiS Law and Justice.
• Bulk of party strongly supports Kaczyński, Duda — already at odds with PiS for recent veto of 2 bills giving govern more power over judiciary — has been more circumspect.
Poland’s Future • Poland’s economy tops in EU28, expanding at 4X bloc’s
average. Warsaw is Europe’s fastest-growing metro region. Tech is boom’s engine: Poland’s early embrace of digital, combined w educational tech focus, created conditions.
• Younger, urban Poles find liberalism dated, reject idea that Brussels knows better & back PiS. New generation gap cuts off those below 35, Poles who only vaguely remember life w/o open Schengen borders, much less communism.
• Liberalism and EU are, really, your parents’ thing. “It’s not cool anymore,” “Now the pro-Europeans are the old establishment. People are rebelling against it.”
• After: 123 yrs of no nation;
6 years of Nazi rule;
Decades of control
by Soviet Union
• Poland will not be controlled by EU.
European Union Globalism
Poland
Nationalism Rule of Law
•End lifetime appointments
•18-year term limits for justices.
•Ea president appoints 2 new justices per 4-year term. Justices term-limited off rotate to circuit courts.
•Raises political stakes - every presidential election = a referendum on Supreme Court
•Supermajority vote of either 60 or 67 senators to confirm justices.
• Congress - strip court of jurisdiction over specific issues by limiting what cases court can hear by Exceptions Clause • Congress has routinely increased Court’s jurisdiction, so why
can’t it limit it?
• Early 1900’s, after court struck down law to ban child labor & other laws regulating corporations ― progressives introduced legislation for Congress to override Supreme Court decisions, require a supermajority vote on court to nullify enacted laws & strip court of jurisdiction over laws banning child labor
• 1970s & 80s conservatives introduced bills to strip court of ability to hear appellate cases on school prayer, school busing, abortion, male-only military draft, police arrests & cases from state court decisions.
• Congress enact recusal & ethics laws to strip court of jurisdiction
• Add new justices to Supreme Court.
• Constitution does not set # of justices - nine since 1869
• Franklin Roosevelt’s failed attempt to pack the court in 1937
• Controversial - allows one political party to change personnel of court to get partisan outcome they desire. If one party does it, what’s to stop the other party next time
• 1.20.21 - public education campaign run by political scientist Aaron Belkin & liberal Harvard Law School professors to get progressives to pack court in 2021 if they have necessary political power
• Reverse “judicial theft” of 2 seats by next Democratic president appoint 4 new justices. Supreme Court = 13 justices
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/supreme-court-kavanaugh-gorsuch_us_5bf806e3e4b0771fb6b8489a