Political Forecast for 2016
Dr. Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida, Tampa
Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates
FSASE Canvassing Board Workshop January 14, 2016
SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Election Dynamics in 2016 • Florida: key battleground state • 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate • 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15),
Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8) • 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21;
DEM Week of July 25) • Presidential debates in Florida • Fundraising for campaigns at all levels • Interface with national parties and PACs • Constant barrage of political-related media • New district lines—U.S. Congress, state legislature
What’s Different in 2016?
Voter Attitudes Trust levels Fears Tone of Candidates, Ads Heightened Activism/Protests
Americans Distrustful of Govt.
An Era of Protests: Peaceful & Violent
“…[E]veryone with a smartphone is now a reporter, news photographer, and documentary filmmaker. It’s a wonder that every newspaper doesn’t have a ‘Protest’ section.”
Thomas L. Friedman New York Times
January 13, 2016
Florida’s Close!! 2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov.
Results
Obama 50.0% Romney 49.1%
Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7%
Scott 48.2% Crist 47.1%
Turnout
Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State
What is a Swing State?
Diversity • Race/ethnicity • Age • Economic • Party Affiliation Ability to Pick Winning Candidate
Voter Registration Pattern: 1972-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
No
v-1
5
Per
cen
t (%
) Republican
Democrat
Other
Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL
Generations in 2016
Why Look at Generations?
• Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today’s campaigns.
• Analyses of the two “super generations,” the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target women voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party.
•
Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents
Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents*
Greatest Generation/GI
Generation
Before
1928
89+ World War II, The Great Depression, The
New Deal
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
The Silent Generation 1928-
1945
71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of Conformity,
Korean War
Harry Truman and Dwight
Eisenhower
The Baby Boomers 1946-
1964
52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s Youth
Culture—Save the World Activism, Drugs,
Free Love, Vietnam War
John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson,
Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and
Jimmy Carter
Generation X 1965-
1980
36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key kids,
transition to computers, AIDS
Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush,
and Bill Clinton
Millennials/Generation Y After
1980
18 to
35**
9/11, Social Media, Iraq and Afghanistan
conflicts, Great Recession, BP oil spill
George W. Bush and Barack Obama
Young v. Old Voters: FL
Reaching Younger Voters
Gender in 2016
Pundit Prediction
• “There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them—and one that will be critical to the outcome.” Charlie Cook, political
analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015
Gender Gap: FL
Women in 2016
• Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes.
• Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized.
• Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage —as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers.
Media Market Definitions
Overall Turnout: 50%
11
18
2123
5
10
3033
23
35
20
28
20
1
9
44
37
11
24
2527
23
5
11
44 43
15
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mar
gin
of
Vic
tory
in M
edia
Mar
ket
Margin of Victory 2010 GOV, 2012 PRES, 2014 GOV
Media Markets(Blue) DEM Victory(Red) REP Victory
A Decade of Changes to Florida’s Election System
• More Uniformity
• New Voting Equipment
• Ballot-Testing
• Early (Convenience) Voting
• More Efficient Voter Education
• Centralized Voter Registration System
• Better Protection Against Disenfranchisement at the Polls
• Protecting the Rights of Military and Overseas Civilians
• Checking Voter Ineligibility
Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms
Democrats • Minimum Wage • Restoration of felon voting rights • Income Inequality • Medicaid expansion • Election processes • Gun control/Stand Your Ground • Police conduct/sentencing disparities • Reproductive rights • Marijuana legalization • Cost of education • Environment • Social Services
Republicans • Economy/economic development • Jobs • Immigration • Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives • Government spending • 2nd Amendment/Gun rights • Religious freedom • Common Core? • Uber/Lyft • Law Enforcement Funding • School choice • Fraud in registration/voting/illegals
Potential Election Controversies in 2016
• Registration
• Online Registration
• The Voter Registration Roll
• Absentee Ballots
• Provisional Ballot Invalidation
• Early In-Person Voting
• Average Wait Time in Line to Vote
• Disabled Voters and Touch Screen Voting Machines
• Felons Waiting to Have Their Voting Rights Restored
• Inaccurate Public Opinion Polls
Horse Race Polls Under Attack
Voting Process IS Being Closely Watched in 2016
“We’ve got to make it easier to vote, not harder. We need to modernize it for the way we live now. This is America. We want to make it easier for people to participate. And over the course of this year, I intend to travel the country to push for reforms that do just that.”
President Barack Obama State of the Union Address
January 12, 2016
Teamwork Needed More Than Ever
Neither other elected officials nor voters “think much about the resources necessary to running elections, unless something goes wrong. [Yet] there is zero tolerance for error in elections, so elections officials are constantly challenged with maintaining perfection on tighter and shrinking budgets.”
Chair of the National Elections Assistance Commission (EAC)
Voters Grade the 2014 Election Process
(Rank Order: Strongest to Weakest)
• 1. Making it convenient to vote (68%)
• 2. Providing highly dependable election equipment (53%)
• 3. Informing citizens about election laws and procedures (50%)
USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES
sunshinestatesurvey.org
Turnout in Presidential Election
Increases (Florida Data)
• Presidential 2008 75% • Presidential Preference Primary 42%
• Governor 2010 (midterm) 49%
• Presidential 2012 72%
• Presidential Preference Primary 41%
• Governor 2014 (midterm) 50%
58% 56%
43%
33%
43% 38%
29%
19% 20%
42% 41%
59% 58%
44%
31% 32% 36%
31% 35%
26% 25% 26%
18% 21%
77% 74% 79%
74% 77% 77% 75% 73%
83%
67% 70% 74% 75%
72%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Pe
rce
nt
of
Vo
ters
(%
) Florida Presidential Election-Year Voter Turnout, 1960-2012
Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election
Sharpest Increase in Turnout in
Presidential Elections
• Young Voters
• Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics)
• Unmarried Females
Convenience Voting on the Rise
Source: Data available from the Florida Division of Elections.
Florida Picks Winners!
Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN!
Swing
State!
Florida Politics at Your Fingertips
Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State
Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State
Florida Political Parties: Major & Minor
Major Political Parties
Florida Democratic Party (DEM) Republican Party of Florida (REP)
Minor Political Parties
America’s Party of Florida (AIP)
Ecology Party of Florida (ECO)
Green Party of Florida (GRE)
Independent Party of Florida (INT)
Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF)
Peace & Freedom Party of Florida (PFP)
Tea Party of Florida (TPF)
Constitution Party of Florida (CPF)
Florida Socialist Workers Party (FSW)
Independence Party of Florida (IDP)
Justice Party of Florida (JPF)
Party for Socialism and Liberation-Florida
(PSL)
Reform Party (REF)
Urban-Suburban-Rural Split