Download - Population Estimates Jonathan Swan, ONS
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Population Estimates
Jonathan Swan, ONS
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Mid-year population estimates
The ONS mid-year population estimates:● At national level for England, Wales ● At subnational level, for regions and local
areas: including government office regions (GORs), strategic health authorities (SHAs) and local authorities (LAs)
● By single year of age (to 90+) and sex● Annually one year in arrears (mid-2005 were
published on 24 August 2006)● Estimate the population as at 30 June
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Other Products
● Primary care organisation (PCO) estimates
● Marital status estimates
● Household population estimates (experimental)
● Quarterly population estimate (experimental)
● Small area population estimates (experimental)
● Ethnic population estimates (experimental)
● National population projections
● Subnational population projections
Currently looking at new population definitions, such as daytime population, weekday population.
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Key uses of Population Estimates
● Base for the population projections that are used for local government resource allocation
● Also used as denominators in resource allocation
● Planning by central and local government e.g. services for the elderly
● Monitoring - used mainly as denominators in rates and ratios e.g. fertility and mortality rates
● Grossing up survey results e.g. Labour Force Survey
● Research by academics and others
● Commercial Usage
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Population Estimates - Methods
● Cohort component method:
Pt = Pt-1 + Bt - Dt + It
Population = Base (aged on) + Births - Deaths + net Migration
Most recent Census as the base (adjusted), Then update annually by adding births,
subtracting deaths and allowing for net migration National and subnational, “top down”.
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Methods (contd) – Static Populations
● These are sub-populations that don’t ‘age-on’ and are not covered by our estimates of Internal and/or international migration– Armed Forces, Prisoners, School Boarders
Method● Remove these sub-populations (previous year)● Age on rest of population● Add in new sub-populations (current year)
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Cohort Component Method - National
Population = Base (aged on) + Births - Deaths + Net Internal migration (cross-border flows)+ Change in home armed forces in country
(UKAF, HAF, Overseas families)+ Change in foreign armed forces in country
(FAF, FAF dependents)+ Net International migration
(IPS, VS, AS, MS, Eire)
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Cohort Component Method - Subnational
Population =
Base (aged on) + Births - Deaths
+ Net Internal migration
+ Change in school boarders
+ Change in prisoners
+ Change in home armed forces (HAF only)
+ Change in foreign armed forces (FAF, FAF dep)
+ Net International migration
(IPS, VS, AS, MS, Eire)
+ Boundary adjustment
+ Reconciliation Adjustment
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Data Sources
Census - base and used for distributions Registration data - births, deaths NHSCR and GP Patient Registers - internal migration International Passenger Survey – international
migration Home Office - Asylum Seeker data DASA - Armed Forces US Army, Navy, and Air Force - Foreign Armed Forces DfES/ WAG –Boarding Schools Home Office - Prisoners
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Internal Migration - Definitions
Definition● A person who changes their place of usual
residence within the United Kingdom
● Internal migration is measured by looking at GP re-registrations
● An Internal migrant is someone who – notifies their current GP of a change of address
or– registers with a new GP in a different area from
their previous GP
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Internal Migration - Points to note
• Reliant on registration with doctor
• Possibly differing propensity to register
• Time period is end July to end July
(one month delay in registering allowed)
• Armed forces and (currently) prisoners excluded
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International Migration – Overview 1
Total International Migration (TIM) estimates
= International Passenger Survey migration data
– Migrant Switcher adjustment
+ Visitor Switcher adjustment
+ Asylum Seeker adjustment
+ Irish flows
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International Migration – Overview 2
Migrant Switchers
IPS Migrants
Visitor Switchers
Asylum Seeker Adjustment
Irish Flows
TotalInternationalMigration
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International Passenger Survey (IPS)
● Continuous voluntary sample survey
● Conducted by ONS since 1964
● Tourism, balance of payments and migration
● Principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes
● Approximately 0.2% of all travellers sampled -
immigration filter shifts increase sample size
● Based on intentions for ‘Length of Stay’
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Proportion of inflows by UK countries/ English GORs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
North East
North West
Yorks & Humb
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
N. Ireland
IPS LFS CENSUS
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IPS Central Tendency in the North East
Proportion of all Immigrants to LAs in North East
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
LA
Pro
port
ion
of A
ll Im
mig
rant
s
IPS
CENSUS
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Description of improved methodology (UK to GOR/Country)
● Calibration methodology developed for using LFS distributions to allocate IPS in-migrants at GOR/country level
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Description of improved methodology (new intermediate geography)
● Group ‘positive’ central tendency LAs with surrounding LAs
● Not all LAs have positive central tendency or surround one that does
● Group remaining LAs to achieve a minimum number of contacts
● A ‘new migration geography’ created for all LAs in England & Wales outside London
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IPS Intermediate Geography for London
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Description of improved methodology (new intermediate geography - London)
● Country of birth used as basis for grouping● Cluster analysis used to group● Aim of grouping together areas which share
similar stocks of people born in different parts of the world
● Students treated separately● Distributed directly from GOR to LA using
Census data on usual address one year ago
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Description of improved methodology (age-sex distribution at LA level)
● Currently a national IPS age-sex distribution is applied at LA level
● However, the age distributions for immigrants vary between LAs
Improved methodology : ● Cluster LAs together sharing similar age distributions
● The centroid (average) age distribution is applied to each LA in that cluster
● Six age distribution types identified separately for males and females
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Six cluster centroid age distributions produced for female immigrants
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New International Out Migrant Model
National: England and Wales
Wales North East North West
NEI1 NEI2
Newcastle-u-T Gateshead Wansbeck
Published IPS Wales/GOR
High weights adjustment
Published IPS national total
3 Year IPS average to
apportion GOR
Propensity to Migrate model to apportion NIGs
New Intermediate Geography (NIG)
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Examples of New Intermediate Geography: North East and South East
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Propensity to Migrate Model
• Uses linear regression to predict the number of migrants per head of population.
• Uses entry selection method to select from 111 socio, economic, and demographic variables.
• Used to apportion from New Intermediate Geography to local authority level.
• Significant improvement in model fit– R2 increases from 42% to 89.5%
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Visitor and Migrant Switchers
● Migrant Switchers (Subtracted):– Persons who state the intention (in the IPS) to
stay in the destination country for more than a year but who actually leave sooner.
● Visitor Switchers (Added):– Persons who enter (or leave) the UK as visitors,
but subsequently extend their visit to 12 months or longer.
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Task Force
● Placeholder
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Future Work Programme
● Placeholder
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Short Term Migrants – Slide under development
● Definition of Long-term● Definitions of Short Term● Consultation
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Integrated Population Statistics System
● This is essentially a population register
● Linking various administrative and other data sources
● Removing the need for a Census, or something as extensive as the Census
● Dependent on initiatives such as ID cards, and removing some of the restrictions on sharing data across government
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How to have an Impact (slide under development)
● Write to us: [email protected]
● Raise your issues through LGA to Discuss at the Central Local information Partnership (CLiP) Population Sub Group
● Attend the May Seminars
● Respond to Consultations
– Short-term Migrants
● Invite us to Groups – and contribute
● Publish Research (Population Trends, BSPS Conferences etc.)
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For further information:
See:
Making a Population Estimate
Contact Population Estimates Unit :
tel: 01329 813318
email: [email protected]
Visit the NS website:
www.statistics.gov.uk/popest and
www.statistics.gov.uk/imps