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Potentials of crop residues for commercial energy
production in China: A geographic and economic
analysis
Huanguang Qiu a, Laixiang Sun b,c,d,*, Xinliang Xu e, Yaqing Cai e, Junfei Bai f
a School of Agricultural Economics & Rural Development, Renmin University of China, 59 Zhongguancun Ave, Beijing
100872, Chinab Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USAc Department of Financial & Management Studies, SOAS, University of London, London WC1H 0GX, UKd International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austriae Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jia 11, Datun Road,
Anwai, Beijing 100101, Chinaf College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, 17 Qinghua East Road, Haidian District,
Beijing 100083, China
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 14 July 2012
Received in revised form
17 February 2014
Accepted 25 March 2014
Available online 21 April 2014
Keywords:
Crop residue
Bioenergy
GIS
Relative prices
China
a b s t r a c t
China has become increasingly dependent on the international energy market owing to the
rapid growth of demand for energy. To develop renewable energy and thus strengthen
energy security for the future, it is important to consider the potential of crop residues.
This paper contributes to this topic by mobilizing up-to-date statistical and remote-sensing
data and by carrying out a geographic and economic analysis. Its assessment shows that
China’s total output of crop residues in 2010 amounted to 729 million tons, and the
quantity could be used for commercial energy production is between 147 and 334 million
tons, depending on the competition power of the commercial energy production relative to
the traditional uses of crop residues. The analysis also shows that the distribution of crop
residues in China is highly uneven. By taking into account the densities of crop residues
available for energy production at the grid-cell level, the transportation cost constraints,
and the economy-of-scale requirements of energy plants, this study further assesses the
geographic distribution of the suitability for establishing crop residue based power plants
and bioenergy plants in China.
ª 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The growing scarcity of fossil energy and the high level of
energy prices have stimulated the wide-reaching efforts to
develop bioenergy. Starting from the early 1990s and espe-
cially since 2000, the biofuel and biodiesel industry has begun
to play an important role in energy supply to moderately
alleviate global energy shortages [1]. However, the feedstock
of current biofuel production consists of mainly seeds of grain
* Corresponding author. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, LeFrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA.E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (L. Sun).
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
http: / /www.elsevier.com/locate/biombioe
b i o m a s s a n d b i o e n e r g y 6 4 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 1 0 e1 2 3
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.03.055
0961-9534/ª 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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crops, oil-bearing crops, and sugar crops. This leads to a food-
fuel competition for agricultural products, adding pressure on
worldwide food security [2]. To reduce this tension, many
countries have started to pay attention to crop residues and
other biomass for energy production.
The impressive economic growth of China has led to rapid
rises in both energy use and food consumption. How to
improve China’s energy security without undermining itsfood security has become one of the top policy issues within
the country and beyond. In 2013, China’s import of crude oil
reached 280 million tons, which accounted for 58 percent of
the nation’s total oil consumption in the year [3]. A widely
reported projection of the International Energy Agency sug-
gests that about 75 percent of China’s oil consumption will
have to be imported by 2030 [4]. The growing consumption of
energy has also given rise to mounting concerns on green-
house gas emissions [5]. It is also worth noting that despite its
success in agricultural development, China has become a net
importer of agricultural commodities since 2004, with the
total trade deficit in the sector reaching 49.19 billion USD in
2012 [6]. A leading example is that China’s import of soybeanin 2012 reached 58.4 million tons, accounting for about 80% of
China’s total soybean demand [7]. It is expected that China’s
imports of soybean and maize will continue to increase in the
future, largely driven by the rising demand for meat and
vegetable oil [8].
To address the joint issue of energy security and food
security, China’s strategy on renewable energy development
has been to put a great emphasis on the utilization of crop
residues for commercial bioenergy production. According to
the Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for China’s
Renewable Energy issued in 2007, the share of renewable
energy in total energy consumption is expected to increase
from 10 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2020. The target forthe capacity of power plants using renewable biomass such
as crop residues is set at 3107 kW and the target for the
annual production of biomass pellet fuel is set at 50 million
tons [9].
Although the targets are clearly set, there has been an
ongoing debate in regard to the quantity of crop residues that
can be mobilized for commercial bioenergy production.
Existing studies show wide differences between their esti-
mations on the potential quantities of crop residues that can
be effectively utilized for bioenergy production in China.
Furthermore, most of the studies focus on estimating the total
amount (also called theoretical amount) and the collectable
amount of crop residues, without consideration of thecompetitive uses of these residues for other purposes, such as
animal feed, organic fertilizers, and raw materials for paper
making and other industries. These competitive uses will
become increasingly sensitive to the rise in the farm-gate
prices of crop residues if the demand from bioenergy pro-
duction becomes sufficiently high.
For example, the theoretical amount of crop residue pro-
duction in 2006 was put at 433million tons in Cui et al. [10] and
728 million tons in Shen et al. [11,12], showing a large gap of
295 million tons. The collectable amount of crop residues in
2006 was put at 372 million tons by a study of the Chinese
Academy of Agricultural Engineering [10] and at 686 million
tons by Wang et al. [13]. There are even greater divergences
among existing research on the amounts of crop residues
which could be used for biomass energy production. With the
implicit assumption that bioenergy production will not
compete with the traditional uses such as livestock feed,
organic fertilizer, rural conventional fuel energy, and indus-
trial raw materials, Cui et al. [10] suggest a quantity of 176
million tons for 2006 and Yang et al. [14] suggest a quantity of
331 million tons for 2007. By considering a part of the tradi-tional uses of crop residues as a binding conservation
requirement and thus free from economic competition, Jiang
et al. [15] suggest a figure of 807 million tons as the theoretical
quantity and 506 million tons as available for biomass energy
production.
One key reason which leads to the big discrepancy in
theoretical quantity estimation is the obvious differences in
the ratios of residues to main products employed in different
research. Such differences, in combination with different as-
sumptions on the rates for the traditional utilization of crop
residues, result in even greater divergences in the estimation
of the amount available for commercial bioenergy production.
Another issue worth considering is that few studies look at thecosts of collecting, storing and utilizing the available crop
residues for energy production. In comparison with grain, the
volume of crop residues per unit of cropland is typicallylarger,
the weight per unit of volume is lighter, and the costs of
collection, transportation and storage are often much higher.
These constraining factors vary significantly across
geographical space and therefore it is important to analyze
the spatial distribution and the density of crop residue
resource in different regions.
This paper reassesses the potentials of crop residues for
commercial energy production in China by mobilizing up-to-
date statistical and remote-sensing data and conducting a
geographic and economic analysis. For the crop-specific ratioof residues to main products, we take the median values of
the diverse ratios employed in existing publications. By
taking into account the densities of crop residues available
for energy production at the grid-cell level, the trans-
portation cost constraints, and the economy-of-scale re-
quirements of energy production plants, this study further
investigates the geographic distribution of the suitability for
establishing crop residue based power plants and bioenergy
plants in China.
2. Methodology
2.1. Theoretical and collectable amounts of crop residues
Crop residues (CRs) are the biomass of crops excluding the
main products. CRs typically include stalks, leaves, and roots.
The theoretical amount of CRs is given by:
CR ¼Xn
i¼1
Qci$ri; (1)
where CR is the theoretical amount of crop residue, Qci is the
output of main products of crop i. Using maize as an example,
Qci represents the total output of corns. ri is the quantity ratio
of crop residues to main products of crop i.
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Collectable amount of CRs refers to the maximal quantity
of CRs that can be collectedfrom fields under theconditions of
current cultivation management practices. It excludes the
parts that are usually not collected, such as crop roots and the
lower part of the stalk not harvested [13]. Collectable amount
of CRs is obtained by multiplying the theoretical amount with
the collection coefficient as presented in Eq. (2).
CRA ¼Xn
i¼1
Qci$ri$ f i; (2)
in which CR A is the collectable amount and f i is the collection
coefficient of crop i. Several factors can affect the collection
coefficient, including the characteristics of the crops and the
harvesting practice. The collection coefficient is usually lower
under mechanical harvesting system than under manual
harvesting system [10,13].
2.2. Potential quantity of crop residues for commercial
energy production
Collectable CRs have multiple uses, in addition to serving as
input into commercial energy production. For thousands of
years, Chinese peasants have used CRs as animal feed, as fuel
for cooking and heating, and to generate organic fertilizers.
The current allocation of CRs across different uses is largely
determined by the levels of economic development and
industrialization in various regions. In this study, we assume
that the use of CRs as industrial raw materials (mainly in the
paper industry) would keep its competitiveness vis-a-vis the
newly arrived use for commercial energy production, the
utilization of CRs for organic fertilizers would not be
compromised by the arrival of the new demand owing to the
public awareness of the importance of agro-ecological con-servation and furthermore the concerns regarding food se-
curity. It is also assumed that the use of crop residues as
livestock feed will not be compromised owing to the foreseen
significant increase in demand for livestock products [8].
In contrast, we assume that the use of CRs as conventional
fuels for rural household heating and cooking will be sensitive
to the rise of farm-gate prices of CRs in line with the
rising demand driven by commercial bioenergy production,
because the substitutive fuels will become relatively cheaper
compared with crop residues. We consider three scenarios
with regard to this sensitivity: (A) those crop residues that are
currently wasted can be utilized for commercial bioenergy
production and other traditional uses keep their currentshares; (B) 50 percent of the household conventional use for
heating and cooking will be further shifted to bioenergy pro-
duction, and(C) 100 percent of household conventional use for
heating and cooking will be shifted to bioenergy production.
Based on above assumptions, the amount of CRs that could be
used for commercial bioenergy production can be calculated
as following:
CRE ¼Xn
i¼1
Qci$ri$ f i$ei: (3)
In Eq. (3), CRE is the amount of CRs that can be used for
bioenergy production and ei is the share of CRs that could be
used for bioenergy production in the total collectable CRs,
which has three scenario values in line with our assumptions
discussed above.
2.3. Spatial distribution of the crop residue resource for
commercial energy production
Economically attainable quantity of CRs for commercial bio-energy production critically depends on the spatial distribu-
tion of CRs in terms of output density. The technical flow-
chart for calculating such yield distribution is presented in
Fig. 1. The net primary productivity (NPP) map we employ for
this calculation is at the 11 km grid level.
As indicated in Fig. 1, using methods presented in Sections
2.1 and 2.2, we first calculate the theoretical amount (CR), the
collectable amount (CR A), and the amount that could be used
for commercial energy production (CRE) at the county level.
The output of main products Qc i is obtained from the official
statistics at the county level. The parameter ri takes the me-
dian value of existing 16 research works for given i (at the
national level), f i takes the mean value of 4 possible parame-ters suggested in two publications for given i (at the national
level), and ei is collected and calibrated at provincial level
following the assumptions in Section 2.2 and then applied to
each county in the same province. The formula for calculating
the density of crop residue resources for commercial energy
production is as follows:
Dcg ¼ ðCREÞcP
g˛cNPPg NPPg; (4)
in which Dcg is the density of CR resources potentially avail-
able for commercial energy production in given grid cell g,
(CRE)c is the total amount of CRE given by Eq. (3) in county c,
NPPg isthe value ofNPPin gridcell g, which is estimated basedon the GLO-PEM Model [16]. The GLO-PEM model is a pro-
duction efficiency model, which consists of linked
Output of main products of
crops (county level data)
Ratio of residues to main
products
Theoretical amount of cropresidues Collectionratio
Collectable amount of
crop residuesScenarios on economic
trade-offs
Potentials of residues for energy
production in each county
NPP map
Total NPP in
each county
Amounts of residue for energy production
per unit of NPP in each county
Density map of crop residue
resources in energy production
Fig. 1 e Technological flow chart for estimating the density
distribution of crop residue resources for bioenergy
production.
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c- omponents that describe the processes of canopy radiation
absorption, utilization, autotrophic respiration, and the
regulation of these processes by environmental factors such
as temperature, water vapor pressure deficit, and soil mois-
ture [17e19]. The map of cropland, with a resolution of
11 km, is generated from the 2005 nationwide land cover/use
datasets of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [20]. The map
presents cropland area as a percentage of the 11 km grid.Within each 11 km grid, the NPP was calculated on cropland
area. Eq. (4) uses the grid level NPP values to distribute the
county level CRE to individual grid cells of farmland in the
given county.
Once the quantity of CRE becomes available at the grid-cell
level, we further analyze the spatial distribution of suitability
for constructing CR-based biofuel plants or power plants in
different areas. Drawing advice from existing studies, we
choose the economically viable radius for a biofuel or power
plant to collect CRE within the circle defined by the radius. The
economically viable quantity of CRE in the circle is obtained by
summing CRE across grid cells within the circle. Matching the
economically viable quantity of CRE in the circle with the totalfeedstock demand of operationally viable plants, we assess
the suitability for constructing crop residue based power
plants or bioenergy plants in different regions.
3. Key parameters
3.1. Ratio of residues to main products and collection
coefficient
Table 1 reports the crop-specific ratios of crop residues to
main product in terms of physical weight of dry matter
employed in various studies. It shows a great variation acrossthe listed studies. Several reasons may cause such variation: a
given crop may grow in different periods of a multi-cropping
system and this leads to differences in the ratio; continu-
ously growing the same crop without paying sufficient
attention to the rotational requirement of cropping agricul-
ture may lead to changes in the ratio; for the same crop,
different varieties may also bear different ratio of residues to
main product. Owing to these reasons, each ratio given in the
existing research may have its own emphasis and it is difficult
to find which one has more merits than others. Therefore in
this research, we take the median value of these ratios as
presented in Table 1.
Table 2 shows the crop-specific collection coefficients of crop residue employed by two influential studies. In recent
years, the mechanized harvesting has become increasingly
popular, which led to the decline of collection coefficient of
crop residues. According to latest official statistics, the share
of sown areas harvested by harvesters in China was about
27.5% of the total sown area, and the shares for rice, wheat,
maize and rapeseed are 46.3%, 92.4%, 9.7% and 6.0%, respec-
tively [30]. With reference to the shares of mechanically and
manually harvested areas of different crops and the corre-
sponding collection coefficients employed in Ref. [10], this
research calibrates national level collection coefficients for
rice, wheat, maize and rapeseed by taking additional assis-
tance from expert opinions, as reported in Table 2. For the T a b l e
1
e
R e s i d u e
t o
P r o d u c t R a t i o
( R P
R ) o f v a r i o u s c r o p s .
Y u k i h i k o
T s u m u r a e t a l . ,
2 0 0 5 [ 2 1 ]
H . L i u e t a
l . ,
2 0 0 8 [ 2 2 ]
K i m &
D a l e ,
2 0 0 4 [ 2 3 ]
X . Z e n g e t a l . ,
2 0 0 7 [ 2 4 ]
L a l ,
2 0 0 5 [ 2 5 ]
S h e n e t a l . ,
2 0 1 0 [ 1 1 ]
C u i e t a l . ,
2 0 0 8 [ 1 0 ]
S o n g ,
2 0 1 0 [ 1 ]
J i a
,
2 0 0 6
[ 2 6 ]
B i ,
2 0 1 0 [ 2 7 ]
M i n i s t r y o f
S c i e n c e & T e c h ,
1 9 9 9 [ 2 8 ]
R e n
e w a b l e
e n e r g
y p r o j e c t ,
2 0
0 8 [ 2 9 ]
M e d i a n
R i c e
2 . 5 3
1 . 3 3 6
1 . 3
1 . 3 4
1 . 5
1 . 1
0 . 7 3
1 . 1
0 . 7
3
1 . 3
1 . 2 8
1 . 3 7
1 . 3
W h e a t
1 . 4 3
0 . 6 2 3
1 . 4
0 . 6 2
1 . 5
1
0 . 6 8
1 . 1
0 . 7
8
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 5
0 . 6 2
0 . 9 5
M a i z e
1 . 1
2
1
2
1
2
1 . 2 5
2
0 . 9
1 . 1
1 . 2 5
2
1 . 2 5
T u b e r c r o p s
1 . 1 4
0 . 5
e
0 . 5
0 . 2 5
1
1
1 . 2
e
0 . 9 6
0 . 5
0 . 5
0 . 7
3
S o r g h u m
1 . 5 7
e
1 . 3
e
1 . 5
2
e
2
e
1 . 6
e
1 . 5
8 5
S o y b e a n
2 . 1 4
1 . 5
e
1 . 5
1
1 . 7
e
2
0 . 7
5
1 . 6
1 . 5
1 . 5
1 . 5
P e a n u t
e
e
e
2
e
1 . 5
e
2
e
1 . 5
2 . 2 1
2
2
R a p e s e e d
e
2
e
2
1 . 5
3
1 . 0 1
3
1 . 2
9
2 . 7
2 . 2 1
2
2
S e s a m e
e
2
e
2
e
2
1 . 0 1
3
e
2 . 8
2 . 2 1
2
2
S u n fl o w e r
e
2
e
2
e
2
1 . 0 1
3
e
2 . 8
2 . 2 1
2
2
O i l fl a x
e
2
e
2
e
2
1 . 0 1
2
e
2
2 . 2 1
2
2
F i b e r c r o p s
e
2 . 5
e
2 . 5
e
e
e
1 . 7
e
1 . 9
e
e
2 . 2
C o t t o n
e
3
e
3
1 . 5
3
5 . 5 1
3
3 . 5
3
5
3 . 1 4
3
3
S u g a r c a n e
0 . 5 2
0 . 1
0 . 6
0 . 1
0 . 2 5
e
e
0 . 1
e
0 . 2 4
0 . 1
0 . 2 5
0 . 2 4
S o u r c e : L i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w c o n d u c t e d b y t h e a u t h o r s .
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collection coefficients of other crops including peanut, ses-
ame, sunflower, and oil flax, owing to the lack of statistics on
mechanically and manually harvested areas, we have to take
the average of the coefficients employed in Cui et al. [10] and
Wang et al. [13].
3.2. Rates for competitive and alternative uses of crop
residues
As discussed before, owing to historical and ecological rea-
sons as well as the transportation constraints in remote areas,
the collectable crop residues have been mainly utilized as
livestock feed, organic fertilizers, industrial raw materials of paper making industry, and traditional heating and cooking
fuels in rural areas. In this section, we carefully assess to what
extent these existing uses may give way to commercial energy
production.
In terms of crop residues as livestock feed, the existing
literature indicates that since 2000 the proportion has been
about 22.6e27.5% in the total amount of collectable crop res-
idues [29,31,32]. In this research, we conduct the estimation at
the provincial level and employ the following calculation
procedure: (a) In cropping areas, we assume that the annual
quantity of residues and fodder consumed by large animals,
such as cattle,horse, donkey, mule and camel, is 1274 kg/head
[29], and for medium-sized livestock like sheep and goats thecorresponding figure is 570 kg/head [33]. We ignore con-
sumption of crop residues by small animals like poultry given
the limited use of crop residues in poultry feed. The total de-
mand for crop residues and fodder grass in each province is
calculated by multiplying the average animal inventory be-
tween the beginning and the end of theyearwiththe per-head
demand, and the demand for crop residues is the above total
demand minus the total fodder production from grasslands.
(b) In semi-pasture area, the calculation approach is similar as
above but with the assumption that one half of the total folder
supply is from the pasture land and the otherhalfis from crop
residues. The results of our estimation are showed in the 3rd
column of Table 3. Witnessing the significant increase in
demand for livestock products in recent decades and fore-
seeing a further increase of such demand in coming decades
[8], we assume that the use of crop residues as livestock feed
would not be compromised by the competitive demand from
the commercial energy production.
Using crop residues as organic fertilizer is an important
means to maintain and further improve soil organic content
and fertility. Cui et al. [10] and Wang et al. [13] estimate that
under current cropping practices, the appropriate proportion
of collectable crop residues that should be used for main-
taining farmland fertility is between 15 and 18.5%. Based on
our own more regional specificinvestigation, we estimate that
the proportion of collected crop residues being returned tofarmland as fertilizer is about 20% in Loess Plateau, Mongolia-
Xinjiang region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and North China, 15%
in Northeast China and Southwest China and 12% in the other
regions (4th column of Table 3). Given the increasing concern
on food security and the growing public awareness of the
importance of agro-ecological conservation, we assume that
the utilization of crop residues for organic fertilizers would
not be compromised by the competition from the commercial
energy production.
The paper production industry has been the dominant use
of crop residues in the category of industrial raw material.
Paper industry might continue to be economicallycompetitive
in terms of competing with bioenergy production for cropresidue resources. On the other hand, the increasing public
awareness of environmental pollution caused by the paper
industry in general and small scale paper-producing plants in
particular has led to the closing of a large number of small
paper-making plants in recent years. This has resulted in a
reduced share of non-wood paper production in the industry
during the last decade [34]. In 2010, 12.97 million tons of non-
wood paper was produced, with the input of 20 million tons of
wheat stalk [35], which accounted for about 30% of the total
output of wheat stalk in the year. In consideration of the
existing progress made and the new efforts committed by the
industry in pursuing economy of scale and controlling pollu-
tion, this study assumes that the proportion of wheat stalk as
Table 2 e Collection coefficients of crop residues by crop.
Ming Cui [10] Yajing Wang [13] Value of this study
Coefficient of mechanized harvesting
Coefficient of manual harvesting
Collectioncoefficient
Collection coefficient Collection coefficient
Rice 0.66 0.90 0.78 0.75
Wheat 0.77 0.90 0.76 0.83 0.75
Maize 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.95Tuber crops e e e 0.80 0.80
Other cereal crops e e e 0.80 0.80
Sorghum e e e 0.80 0.80
Legume crops e e e 0.88 0.88
Peanut 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.88
Rapeseed 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.89
Sesame 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.88
Sunflower 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.88
Oil flax 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.88
Cotton e 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90
Fiber crops e e e 0.87 0.87
Sugar crops e e e 0.88 0.88
Source: Literature review and interviews with experts in the field conducted by the authors
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an input to the paper production industry will remain at the
level of 30% in the total collectable in most provinces. In thoseprovinces where the total collectable amount of wheat resi-
dues is less than 1.5 million tons, we assume that no wheat
residues will be used for paper production owing to the lack of
economy of scale. Crop residues are also popular inputs to
mushroom production. We assume that the ratio of crop
residue use to the output of mushroom production is 1:1. The
output of mushroom production in individual provinces is
taken from Yearbook of China Agricultural Products Processing
Industries [36].
Direct burning crop residues for cooking and heating has
been the conventional way of using crop residues as bio-fuel
in rural China, which has a very low level of energy effi-
ciency as heat is allowed to escape into the open air. Theemphasis of this paper is on modern commercial ways of
utilization such as power generation and bioethanol produc-
tion, which significantly improve the energy efficiency. The
recent economic development experienced in China has
resulted in a declining share of crop residues in total rural fuel
energy consumption [37]. A number of studies show that the
conventional use of crop residue as cooking and heating fuels
takes up about 23.7e50.0% of the total amount of collectable
crop residues [29,31,32,38]. Based on multiple sources and
fieldworks, Bi [27] conducts a detailed and careful investiga-
tion of crop residue consumption per household for different
regions of China. We mainly adopt Bi’s results with necessary
modifications according to relative distribution patterns
across provinces as given in China Energy Statistics Yearbook
and other relevant information in Refs. [10,13,31]. The share of crop residue directly burned for rural household cooking and
heating is shown in the 2nd column of Table 3.
It is also worth noting that a significant proportion of crop
residues have been simply wasted in rural China. The last
column of Table 3 shows the shares of such wasted crop
residue in the total across different provinces. For example, in
Heilongjing province, the share of wasted crop residue is
estimated to be as high as 40.3%. Due to various reasons such
as the lack of market demand or abundance in exceeding the
level of rural households’ own use, some crop residues are
wastefully burnt on land afterharvesting or being taken out of
the land and then abandoned. In this study, we consider three
scenarios in calculating the potential quantity of crop residuesthat could be used for commercial bioenergy production. In all
three scenarios, we assume that with appropriate policy
support, those crop residues being currently wasted or aban-
doned can be used for commercial bioenergy production. For
scenarios B and C, as discussed in Section 2.2, once farm-gate
prices for crop residues become sufficiently high owing to the
rising demand from the modern bioenergy sector, the use of
crop residues for conventional rural fuel energy will decline.
More specifically, in Scenario B, we assume that 50% of the
current household use for conventional fuel energy will give
way to bioenergy production, which is very likely in the me-
dium term; and in Scenario C, we assume that 100 percent of
current household use for conventional fuel will give way to
Table 3 e Current shares of alternative use of crop residues by province (%).
Rural fuel energy Livestock feed Organic fertilizer Industrial raw materials Wasted or not used
Beijing 26.8 36 20 3 14.2
Tianjing 35.1 26.8 20 3.1 15
Hebei 27.3 29.1 20 10 13.6
Shandong 24.5 35 12 11.4 17.1
Henan 22.7 21 12 14.8 29.5
Liaoning 36.3 34.4 15 2.5 11.8
Jilin 22.1 21.5 15 1.2 40.3
Heilongjiang 25.5 18.1 15 1.4 40
Shanxi 39.3 36.2 20 0.5 3.9
Shaanxi 33.8 27.4 20 11.4 7.4
Gansu 35.6 27.4 20 6.1 10.9
Inner Mongolia 26.3 33.8 20 1.9 18
Ningxia 20.4 45.9 20 0.2 13.5
Xinjiang 21.2 28.1 20 4.2 26.5
Tibet 39 36.9 20 0 4.1
Qinghai 39 35.7 20 0 5.3
Shanghai 25 17.8 12 7.3 37.9
Jiangsu 30.5 8.3 12 14.3 34.9
Zhejiang 32.6 14.8 12 1.3 39.3
Anhui 28.6 15 12 10.2 34.2
Hubei 30.1 24 12 3.1 30.8
Hunan 38.8 31.5 12 2.7 14.9
Jiangxi 36.7 17.4 12 2 31.9
Chongqing 46.4 19 15 0.7 18.9
Sichuan 51.9 23.4 15 6 3.8
Guizhou 46.4 24.2 15 0.3 14.1
Yunnan 47.8 24.2 15 0.3 12.7
Fujian 30.8 22.7 12 20 14.6
Guangdong 32.3 23.7 12 2.1 29.9
Guangxi 29.8 22.5 12 0.8 34.9
Hainan 25 14.6 12 1.5 46.9
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bioenergy production, which is likely in the long term and
might be a very optimistic scenario in favor of commercial
bioenergy production.
To summarize, Table 3 presents the shares of alternative
uses of crop residues in the total collectable at the provincial
level.
4. Results
4.1. Potential of crop residues for commercial energy
production
We apply the methods and parameters presented in Sections
2.1 and 3.1 to the 2010 official statistical data on the total
output of the main products of each crop as listed in Table 1.
This application generates the theoretical amount and the
collectable amount of crop residues at the county level. We
then calculated the potentials of crop residues that could be
used for commercial energy production under the three
different scenarios as we specified in Section 2.2. Table 4
presents the results of these calculations.
From Table 4 we can see that in 2010 the total theoretical
output of crop residues in China was 729 million tons and the
top-three contributors were 222, 186, and 150 million tons
from maize, rice and wheat, respectively. The top-three crops
accounted for 76.5% of the total theoretical amount. Theregional distribution of the theoretical amounts were 188, 116,
42, 58, 3, 175, 86, and 59 million tons in the North China Plain,
Northeast China, Loess Plateau, Northwest, Qinghai-Tibet
Plateau, Central and East China (Lower and Middle Reaches
of Yangtze River), Southwest China and South China,
respectively. At provincial level, Henan Province in the North
China Plain ranked first with 80 million tons in 2010, whereas
Tibet was the least with only 1 million tons. The total amount
of China’s collectable crop residues in 2010 was 609 million
tons and its regional distribution was very similar to that of
the theoretical amount.
Table 4 e Potential of crop residues for bioenergy production, by region and province (million tons).
Theoretical amount Collectable amount Potentials for bioenergy production
Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C
China 728.63 609.44 147.10 240.69 334.32
North 188.30 157.56 33.73 53.06 72.39
Beijing 1.49 1.33 0.19 0.37 0.54
Tianjin 2.19 1.90 0.29 0.62 0.95
Hebei 41.73 35.67 4.85 9.72 14.59
Shandong 63.02 53.20 9.10 15.61 22.13
Henan 79.87 65.46 19.31 26.74 34.17
Northeast 116.30 103.14 35.70 49.36 63.05
Liaoning 22.36 20.03 2.36 6.00 9.64
Jilin 34.96 31.70 12.78 16.25 19.75Heilongjiang 58.98 51.40 20.56 27.11 33.67
Loess Plateau 42.18 36.59 2.64 9.28 15.91
Shanxi 14.13 12.64 0.49 2.99 5.47
Shaanxi 15.50 13.21 0.98 3.21 5.44
Gansu 12.55 10.75 1.17 3.09 5.00
Northwest 58.17 51.07 10.80 16.87 22.94
Inner Mongolia 29.03 26.24 4.72 8.17 11.63
Ningxia 4.48 3.84 0.52 0.91 1.30
Xinjiang 24.67 20.99 5.56 7.79 10.01
Plateau 2.91 2.38 0.12 0.58 1.04
Tibet 1.12 0.89 0.04 0.21 0.39
Qinghai 1.79 1.49 0.08 0.37 0.66
Central and East 175.27 137.93 41.58 63.90 86.19
Shanghai 1.27 0.97 0.37 0.49 0.61
Jiangsu 39.19 30.54 10.66 15.32 19.97Zhejiang 8.58 6.69 2.63 3.72 4.81
Anhui 40.60 32.08 10.97 15.56 20.15
Hubei 31.82 25.64 7.90 11.76 15.62
Hunan 32.47 25.54 3.81 8.79 13.74
Jiangxi 21.34 16.46 5.25 8.27 11.29
Southwest 86.39 72.20 7.08 24.82 42.59
Chongqing 12.44 10.27 1.94 4.32 6.70
Sichuan 39.44 32.33 1.23 9.59 17.98
Guizhou 13.01 11.10 1.56 4.14 6.71
Yunnan 21.50 18.51 2.35 6.77 11.20
South 59.11 48.57 15.44 22.82 30.20
Fujian 6.86 5.35 0.78 1.60 2.43
Guangdong 17.35 13.93 4.16 6.41 8.66
Guangxi 32.09 27.00 9.42 13.45 17.47
Hainan 2.80 2.28 1.07 1.36 1.64
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The amount of crop residues accessible for bioenergy
production would be much lower than the collectable amount
if the alternative uses of crop residues keep their current share
owing to the limited competition power of the emerging bio-
energy industry, as Scenario A assumes. Under Scenario A,
there are only about 147 million tons of crop residues
obtainable at the national level for commercial bioenergy
production, which is about 24% of the total collectable amountor 20% of total theoretical amount. The regional distribution of
the 147 million tons of crop residues is more or less similar to
that of the collectables, but with some variation due to the
differences in the shares of alternative usages across different
regions. For example, Heilongjiang becomes the province with
the highest amount of crop residues accessible for bioenergy
production, and Henan, the number one province in terms of
the collectable, drops to the second place.
The other two scenarios point to the rising competing
power of the new bioenergy industry and highlight that if the
bioenergy sector can grab crop residues from rural conven-
tional fuel use by offering attractive prices, the potential
amount for bioenergy production would be much higher. Forexample, if 50 percent of crop residues currently consumed as
conventional fuel can be taken away by the bioenergy sector
(Scenario B), the total potential amount will increase to 241
million tons, being 63.4 percent higher than the amount
accessible under Scenario A. Moreover, if 100 percent of crop
residues consumed as rural fuel energy can be seized by the
bioenergy sector through direct or indirect price competition
as assumed in Scenario C, the total amount of crop residues
available for bioenergy production will reach 334 million tons,
more than double the quantity obtainable under Scenario A.
4.2. Density of crop residue resource and suitability for
bioenergy plant construction
Economically attainable mobilization of crop residues for
commercial bioenergy production critically depends on thedensity of crop residue output in the neighborhoods of a
favored site. In those neighborhoods with high density of crop
residue output, costs of collection and transportation will be
much lower. With a lower density, bioenergy plant will have
to expand its collection radius to grab minimum amount of
feedstock required by economies of scale to the point at which
marginal cost of grabbing an extra unit of feedstock equals
marginal revenue this unit of feedstock generates. Existing
studies suggest that a 25-km radius is an economically
attainable range for a crop residue based power plant or bio-
energy plant. For example, the studies of both Wang et al. [39]
and Wu et al. [40] show that 24e25 km is the maximum radius
for crop residue based power plant to collect feedstock in aneconomically operational way.
We apply the density calculation method presented in
Section 3 to each 1 1 grid cell if cultivated land accounts for
atleast5 percent ofthe1 km2 area of thegridcellfor Scenarios
A, B, and C, respectively. Fig. 2 reports the density distribution
under Scenario A. It shows that the grid-cells with high den-
sity mostly lies in the three regions of Northeast Plain, Middle
and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, and Southwest China
Fig. 2 e
Density distribution of crop residue resource availablefor commercial energy productionin ton/km2, under Scenario A.
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(mainly, Guangxi province), where majority of the grid cells
have the density of over 100 tons/km2 available for commer-
cial energy production. At the provincial level, there are fourprovinces where majority of grid cells produce more than 200
tons of crop residues per km2, including Henan (>244 t/km2),
Jilin (>231 t/km2), Jiangsu (>224 t/km2), and Guangxi (>223 t/
km2). In contrast, the density in the Loess Plateau and Tibet
Plateau is at the very low end, with an average (across those
crop-related grid cells) of 22 t/km2 and 13 t/km2, respectively.
Figs. 3 and 4 report the density distribution under Sce-
narios B and C. A comparison across Figs.2e4 indicate that the
density disparity extends significantly between provinces at
the high density end and those at the low density end. Henan
in North China, Jilin in Northeast China, Jiangsu in East China,
and Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan in Central China all become
more suitable for crop residue based commercial bioenergyproduction when they move from Scenario A to B and then to
C. In contrast, the potentials in the Loess Plateau and Tibet
Plateau keep very limited under all three scenarios.
As discussed in Section 2.2, the density distribution re-
ported in Figs. 2e4 allows us to further assess the spatial
distribution of suitability for constructing crop residue based
biofuel plants or power plants in different areas. In our
research we consider three radius choices of 25 km, 30 km and
50 km but pay special attention to the 25 km radius for the
following two reasons. First, it is recommended by specialists’
research [39,40], and second, it is in line with the adminis-
trative radius of most counties in the main crop production
regions, which brings administrative convenience given the
well-reported tough inter-jurisdictional competition for eco-
nomic resources across counties and provinces [41]. For the
same reason, we report the results in association with the25 km radius only. Other results are available upon request.
With the currently available technology and within the
radius of 25 km, 47,500 and 180,000 tons of crop residues are
needed for feeding a power plant of 6 MW and 25 MW,
respectively.1 In terms of crop residue based bioethanol plant,
60,000 and 300,000 tons of crop residues are needed forfeeding
an annual capacity of 10,000 and 50,000 tons of bioethanol
production, respectively.2 Fig. 5 presents the suitability dis-
tribution of bioenergy plants with different scales under Sce-
nario A. The figure shows that biofuel plants with an annual
capacity of 50,000 tons bioethanol can be built only in limited
areas of three provinces, i.e., Jilin, Henan, and Jiangsu. Power
plants of more than 25 MW are suitable in areas such asMiddle and Lower Reach of Yangtze River and a limited
number of counties in Northeast Region and scattered small
areas in Guangxi province. In contrast, power plants of 6 MW
Fig. 3 e Density distribution of crop residue resource availablefor commercial energy productionin ton/km2, underScenarioB.
1 According to Wu et al. (2009) [40], unit crop residue conversionrate of a residue-solidification enterprise of 6 MW is 1.1 t/MWh.Assuming an annual operation of 300 days, the quantity of cropresidue needed is 1.1 t/MWh 6 MW 24 300; conversion rateof a residue-solidification power plant of 25 MW is 1 t/MWhand the quantity of crop residue needed is 1.0 t/MWh 25 MW 24 300.
2 According to Song et al. (2010) [1], with the present technologyof ethanol production, unit crop residue conversion rate is 6 tons/
ton.
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Fig. 4 e Density distribution of crop residue resource availablefor commercialenergy productionin ton/km2,underScenarioC.
Fig. 5 e
Suitability distribution of bioenergy plants with different scale under Scenario A.
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and ethanol plants of 10,000 tons capacity can be constructed
in majority of counties in Northeast, North China Plain, Mid-
dle and Lower Reach of Yangtze River, and Guangxi Province,
as well as in some scatted areas of Xinjiang province.
The suitability pattern improves significantly when the
Scenario moves from A to B and further to C. Fig. 6 presents
the suitability of crop residue based energy plant under Sce-
nario B. Under this scenario, the areas suitable for bioethanolplants of 50,000 tons capacity extend to a large part of Jilin
Province and Middle and Lower Reach of Yangtze River. The
areas suitable for power plants of more than 25 MW capacity
extend to Heilongjiang Province in Northeast, North China
Plain, and majority areas in Middle and Lower Reach of
Yangtze River. Areas suitable for power plants of 6 MW and
ethanol plants of 10,000 tons capacity cover majority counties
of Northeast Region, North China Plain, Middle and Lower
Reach of YangtzeRiver,South China except Fujian, Chongqing
and Chengdu Basin in Sichuan Province.
Fig. 7 shows the suitability of constructing commercial
energy plants with different scales under scenario C. Under
this scenario, the areas suitable for bioethanol plants of 50,000tons capacity extend to the areas suitable for power plants of
more than 25 MW capacity under Scenario B (Fig. 6), and those
suitable for power plants of more than 25 MW capacity extend
beyond the areas suitable for small power plants of 6 MW and
ethanol plants of 10,000 tons capacity under Scenario A. Areas
suitable for power plants of 6 MW and bioethanol plants of
10,000 tons capacity cover almost all eastern and southern
half of China, except a large part of Fujian and some other
scattered (mountainous) areas.
5. Discussion and conclusion
China’s demand for energy has increased rapidly in recent
years and this leads to China’s increased dependence on theinternational energy market. Effectively utilizing crop resi-
dues in commercial energy production is regarded as one of
the key options for the development of renewable energy and
for strengthening energy security in the future. Such recog-
nition has stimulated an increasing number of researches
assessing the quantity of crop residues mobilize-able for
commercial bioenergy production. Most of the existing
studies focus on estimating the total theoretical and collect-
able amounts of crop residues, and pay little attention to the
rising competing power of the emerging bioenergy sector to-
wards the traditional uses of crop residues and the suitability
of constructing bioenergy plants in different areas under a
given density of crop residue resource. This paper fills thisimportant gap by mobilizing up-to-date statistical and
remote-sensing data and by carrying out a geographic and
economic analysis.
Our assessment shows that in 2010 the theoretical amount
of crop residue output in China was 729 million tons and the
collectable quantity was 609 million tons. If the traditional
uses of crop residues keep their current shares owing to the
Fig. 6 e
Suitability distribution of bioenergy plants with different scale under Scenario B.
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limited competition power of the emerging bioenergy industry
in the short-run, the amount of crop residues that can be
mobilized for energy production will be about 147 milliontons, accounting for 24 percent of the total collectable
amount. If the buying prices of crop residues by the com-
mercial energy production sector become high enough so that
farmers are willing to sell about 50 percent of crop residues
traditionally consumed for rural fuel energy, the amount of
crop residues for commercial energy production will increase
to 241 million tons or 40 percent of the total collectable
amount. Furthermore, if the buying prices become so high so
that substitutive fuels become much cheaper than crop resi-
dues and farmers no longer use crop residues for heating and
cooking, the amount of crop residues accessible for commer-
cial energy production will furtherincrease to 334 million tons
or 55 percent of the total collectable amount.Constrained by the costs of collection and transportation,
economically feasible utilization of crop residues for com-
mercial energy production depends on the density of crop
residue resources in the neighborhoods of a favored plant site.
In this research we consider a radius of 25 km for crop residue
based energy plants to search the economically suitable sites,
as being recommended by specialists’ researches [39,40] and
being in line with the administrative radius of most counties
in the major crop production regions of China. With the 25 km
radius, our assessment shows that if the traditional uses of
crop residues keep their current shares, bioethanol plants
with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons can be built only in
limited areas of Jilin, Henan, and JiangsuProvinces; and power
plants of more than 25 MW can be built only in Middle and
Lower Reach of Yangtze River and a limited number of
counties in Northeast Region and Guangxi province. If the risein prices leads farmers to sell 50 percent of fuel-energy related
crop residues, a scenario highly plausible in the medium run,
the areas suitable for bioethanol plants of 50,000 tons capacity
will extend to a large part of Jilin Province and Middle and
Lower Reach of Yangtze River; and the areas suitable for
power plants of more than 25 MW will extend to Heilongjiang
in Northeast, North China Plain, and majority areas in Middle
and Lower Reach of Yangtze River. The results also show that
if the price of crop residues offered by the commercial energy
production sector is high enough and attracts all crop residues
away from rural fuel energy use, the suitable areas for bio-
energy plants will be significantly expanded in the east and
southeast regions of China.The findings of this study provide important information to
policy makers in China for formulating plans and policies in
mobilizing crop residues for bioenergy development, also to
commercial companies for the location decisions of their bio-
energy production plants. The Medium- and Long-Term
Development Plan for China’s Renewable Energy [9] puts an
emphasison using cropresidue for power generation and pellet
production. According to this plan, about 300 million tons of
crop residues should be usedfor bioenergyproduction, which is
very close to our estimation under Scenario C. Nevertheless,
this study shows that if the competitive uses of crop residues
and the economic viability of bioenergy plants are considered,
the total quantity of crop residue that can be used for
Fig. 7 e Suitability distribution of bioenergy plants with different scale under Scenario C.
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commercial bioenergy production could be much lower. In
terms of the potential role crop residues can play in China’s
total energysupply, we show that even in the two conservative
scenarios of A and B, there will be about 147 and 241 million
tons of crop residues available for commercial bioenergy pro-
duction, which are equivalent to about 73.5 and 120.5 million
tons of standard coal respectively, amounting to 2.5 and 3.8
percent of China’s total energy consumption in 2012.The analysis of this study highlights the importance of
considering the economic viability of a bioenergy plant in
terms of not only collectingand transporting costs but also the
competing power of the bioenergy sector over alternative uses
of crop residues, the latter of which exerts significant impact
on mobilizing crop residues for bioenergy production.
Currently, one of the R&D focuses in the bioenergy production
industry is on how to scale up pilot/demonstration plants to
industrial scales. This study suggests that the R&D efforts
should also pay more attention to networks of small-scale
crop residue-based bioenergy plants because they are more
capable of extending their feedstock bases thus are econom-
ically more viable.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of
Newton International Fellowship of the UK and National Sci-
ence Foundation of China (71073154 and 71222302), and thank
the valuable comments of Christina Prell, Christopher P.
Mitchell (Editor) and two anonymous referees.
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