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Predicting local crime clusters using a Predicting local crime clusters using a local indicator of spatial association local indicator of spatial association
and a discrete choice modeland a discrete choice model
Martin A. AndresenMartin A. [email protected]@sfu.ca
School of CriminologySchool of CriminologySimon Fraser UniversitySimon Fraser University
http://http://www.sfu.ca/~andresenwww.sfu.ca/~andresen//
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Motivation for this researchMotivation for this research
The limitations of linear modelsThe limitations of linear modelsParameter stability for low and high crime Parameter stability for low and high crime areas?areas?
Local crime clustersLocal crime clustersA lack of predictionA lack of prediction
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Resolving linearityResolving linearity
Identify low crime and high crime areasIdentify low crime and high crime areas
Model them independentlyModel them independently
Problem: how to identify these areas?Problem: how to identify these areas?Natural breaks? Standard deviations?Natural breaks? Standard deviations?How many classifications?How many classifications?How should they be modeled?How should they be modeled?
Little remaining variationLittle remaining variation
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LISALISA
Local indicators of spatial associationLocal indicators of spatial association
A method of classifying spatial unitsA method of classifying spatial units
Not as arbitrary as other possibilitiesNot as arbitrary as other possibilities
Anselin (1995): local MoranAnselin (1995): local Moran’’s s II
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LISA, contLISA, cont’’dd
5 classifications5 classificationslowlow--low, highlow, high--high, lowhigh, low--high, highhigh, high--lowlowStatistically insignificantStatistically insignificant
Low and high crime areas identified, now Low and high crime areas identified, now what?what?
Categorical variable, cannot use OLSCategorical variable, cannot use OLS
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Synthesizing my motivation: Synthesizing my motivation: a twoa two--stage approachstage approach
Identify local clusters of crime using LISAIdentify local clusters of crime using LISA
Model these 5 categories using a discrete Model these 5 categories using a discrete choice methodologychoice methodology
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Multinomial logistic regressionMultinomial logistic regressionPredicts the probability of a local crime cluster from Predicts the probability of a local crime cluster from occurringoccurring
Each type of local crime cluster has its own set of Each type of local crime cluster has its own set of estimated parametersestimated parameters
Can uncover if low and high crime areas have the Can uncover if low and high crime areas have the ““samesame”” relationships with explanatory variablesrelationships with explanatory variables
Can uncover if all low (or high) crime areas are the Can uncover if all low (or high) crime areas are the samesame
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Crime dataCrime data
VPD calls for service, 2001VPD calls for service, 2001
Automotive theft, burglary, and violent Automotive theft, burglary, and violent crimecrime
All crimes measured as rates per 1000All crimes measured as rates per 1000
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Ecological dataEcological data
Statistics CanadaStatistics Canada’’s Census of Population, s Census of Population, 20012001
Social disorganization theorySocial disorganization theory
Routine activity theoryRoutine activity theory
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Social disorganization theorySocial disorganization theory
Ethnic heterogeneityEthnic heterogeneity
Population turnoverPopulation turnover
Social and economic deprivationSocial and economic deprivation
Family disruption Family disruption
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Routine activity theoryRoutine activity theory
Offenders, targets, and guardianshipOffenders, targets, and guardianshipAge compositionAge compositionMarital statusMarital statusPopulation countsPopulation countsEmployment statusEmployment statusIncome levelsIncome levelsDwelling values Dwelling values
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Crime clusters (Crime clusters (CTsCTs), automotive theft), automotive theft
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Crime clusters (Crime clusters (CTsCTs), burglary), burglary
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Crime clusters (Crime clusters (CTsCTs), violent crime), violent crime
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Local crime clusters, Local crime clusters, CTsCTs
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Automotive theft results, Automotive theft results, CTsCTs
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Burglary results, Burglary results, CTsCTs
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Violent crime results, Violent crime results, CTsCTs
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Crime clusters (DAs), automotive theftCrime clusters (DAs), automotive theft
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Crime clusters (DAs), burglaryCrime clusters (DAs), burglary
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Crime clusters (DAs), violent crimeCrime clusters (DAs), violent crime
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Local crime clusters, DAsLocal crime clusters, DAs
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Automotive theft results, DAsAutomotive theft results, DAs
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Burglary results, DAsBurglary results, DAs
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Violent crime results, DAsViolent crime results, DAs
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Interesting resultsInteresting results
High and low crime areasHigh and low crime areasDifferent sets of independent variablesDifferent sets of independent variablesMagnitudes are differentMagnitudes are different
LowLow--low and lowlow and low--high crime areashigh crime areasNot all low crime areas are the sameNot all low crime areas are the sameLowLow--high crime areas are more similar to high high crime areas are more similar to high crime areas than other low crime areascrime areas than other low crime areas
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ExplanationsExplanations
High and low crime areasHigh and low crime areasWhen continuously measuredWhen continuously measuredEstimated parameters are Estimated parameters are ““averagesaverages””
LowLow--low and lowlow and low--high crime areashigh crime areasCollective efficacyCollective efficacyEdges Edges
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ConclusionsConclusions
Continuous linear models are problematicContinuous linear models are problematic
Of limited value for understanding truly different Of limited value for understanding truly different contextscontexts
Current methodology leads to instructive resultsCurrent methodology leads to instructive results
These instructive results are common senseThese instructive results are common sense
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Predicting local crime clusters using a Predicting local crime clusters using a local indicator of spatial association local indicator of spatial association
and a discrete choice modeland a discrete choice model
Martin A. AndresenMartin A. [email protected]@sfu.ca
School of CriminologySchool of CriminologySimon Fraser UniversitySimon Fraser University
http://http://www.sfu.ca/~andresenwww.sfu.ca/~andresen//