Predictive Applications are going to steal your jobLars Trieloff | @trieloff @byanalytics_en
Data-Driven Decisions in Retail
Pricing Replenishment Targeting
Artificial Intelligence, Real Results
Open the valves of knowledge and let wisdom flow!
IPredictive Apps are the most powerful way to use data
Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization
— Abraham Maslov – probably never said this. It’s true anyway.“Data has Human Needs, too”
Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision
Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision
Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization
More than half of the apps on a typical iPhone home screen are predictive applications.
IIMachines are working faster and cheaper than humans
Example Pricing
0
4500
9000
13500
18000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes
Example Pricing
0
12500
25000
37500
50000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes Prices set per night
IIIThey are not just faster and cheaper, they are also better at making decisions
Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation
— The Economist, May 2015
“The best chess players in the world are ‘centaurs’, amalgamated teams of humans and algorithms.”
Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation 'Centaurs'
— Arthur Schopenhauer
“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.”
IVAutomation used to be a “blue collar problem”, now it is becoming a “white collar problem”
I don’t work in an assembly line.
And I don’t play table tennis.
— Daniel Susskind, co-author “The Future of the Professions”
“I feel deeply uncomfortable with that, but it may be that for some tasks machines can make these decisions more effectively and efficiently”
21% of my time is spent with communication & scheduling. No way a robot could do that.
— Charles Duhigg, “The Power of Habit”
“More than 40 percent of the actions people performed each day aren’t actual decisions, but habits.”
VIt’s officially time to FREAK OUT!
Checkmate, humans!
VIMost of our decisions are not rational
Human Decision Making has two systems – and only one is rational.
Not quite Almost there That’s it.
Quick: What do you see here?
VIIMost of our fears are not rational either
— Daniel Kahneman
“Humans tend to infer the general from the particular but are reluctant to deduce the particular from the general.”
VIIIExpect huge inequality in job losses
— Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford University
“According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk [of replacement by automation]”
— William Gibson
“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”
IXThe boring jobs are the first to go
No fun, lots of riskLoan officers
Receptionists
Paralegals
Retail salespeople
Taxi drivers
Security guards
Fast food cooks
Bartenders
Personal financial advisors
Reporters
0 25 50 75 100
No fun, lots of riskKreditech
ChihiraAico
eBrevia
E-Commerce
Google Self-Driving Cars
iRobot
Momentum Machines
Monsieur
Pefin
Narrative Sciences
0 25 50 75 100
XSome things can’t be taken away
— Dan Pink
“People are now spending about 40 percent of their time at work engaged in persuading, influencing, and convincing others.
Across a range of professions, we are devoting roughly twenty-four minutes of every hour to moving others.”
Strategic Impact
0
12,5
25
37,5
50
0 20 40 60 80
Revenue Only Mostly Revenue Both Mostly Profit Profit Only
Conclusion
Predictive Applications are already here …
They will change the way we work
And let us do what we can do best: be human.
Lars Trieloff @trieloff