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GE job title/1
1 GE Oil & Gas Proprietary & Confidential Information – for internal use only
© 2012 GE – All Rights Reserved
William Carrillo 2013 PHM Conference
New Orleans
GE Oil & Gas
Prognostics for Oil &
Gas
Artificial Lift applications
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What’s our application?
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Oil & Gas Environmen
t
Profile
Remote Site / Deep
operations
High CAPEX
Corrosive
High Temperature
Expensive Maintenance
Costs
Pressure to be
productive
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Definition of Artificial Lift Gas Lift
ESP’s
PCP
HydroLift
Hydraulic Pumps Beam pump
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Electro Submersible Pump System Monitor • Intake Pressure
• Intake Temperature
• Motor Temperature
• Discharge Pressure
• Vibration
• Motor Current
• Casing Pressure
• Tubing pressure
Control • ESP Motor Frequency
• ESP Remote Start
• ESP Remote Stop
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Diagnostics using Analytic Analysis
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Typical ESP failures & causes
Source: C-FER
FA
ILU
RE
S
FA
ILU
RE
S
MechanicalMechanical MaterialMaterial ElectricalElectrical OthersOthers
* Leaking
* Failed pressure test
* Stuck (e.g. does not rotate)
* Burst
* Bent
* Broken
* Disconnected
* Burn
* Corroded
* Worn
* Melted
* Overheated
* Short circuit
* Open circuit
* Faulty power
* Plugged with solids
* Contaminated fluid
CA
US
ES
C
AU
SE
S
Design relatedDesign related FabricationFabrication Storage & Storage &
TransportationTransportation InstallationInstallation OperationalOperational ReservoirReservoir
Improper :
* Equipment capacity
* Material selection
* System configuration
*Manufacturing problem
*Improper quality control
* Improper storage
* Improper transportation
* Assembly procedure
* Installation procedure
* Normal wear and tear
* Installation or
inadequate training
* Reservoir fluids
* Reservoir
performance
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Diagnostics for ESP
Program
Development of a functional M&D system for ESPs
Transition to live field system
Advantage
Reliable lift performance
Reduced equipment downtime
Increased installed base and margin
Diagnostic
Solution
Domain knowledge
Analytics
Data
Data
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Deliverables and Business value Deliverables Business Impact
Report & Algorithms :
• Data mining – identify
issues (known, emerging)
• Data for probabilistic
design
Tools & Algorithms :
• Anomaly Detection
• Change-Point Detection
• Data Fusion
Models & Tools :
• Survival Analysis
• Recurrent Event Analysis
• Probabilistic design models
Models & Tools:
• Long term service
agreements
• Optimize Spares & Logistics
• Optimize Maintenance
• Optimized operation
• ESP improved tracking
• Reduce downtime
• Services revenue
• Improved reliability
• Improved availability
• Lower cost of quality
• Lower lifecycle costs
Data Mining
& Reporting
Anomaly
Detection
Advanced
Reliability
Decision
Optimizatio
n 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4Renewal Distribution (Percentiles of replacements per unit)
Design Life, years
M(t
), R
enew
als
Per
Unit
P2.5
P5
P10
P25
P50
P75
P90
P95
P97.5
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How much will a failure cost?
• Lost production cost (Estimated): Price of oil barrel: $100
Typical production: 500 b/d
Water cut: 70% (percentage of water per each barrel produce)
Estimated downtime: 2 days (per incident in remote areas)
Estimated incidents per year: 10
Estimated savings: 500 b/d x 20 x 0.3 x $100 = $3MM !!
• Intervention cost (Estimated): Onshore conventional well: $5K to $25K per intervention
Onshore unconventional well: $150K to $250K per intervention
Offshore well: Up to $1MM per intervention
Intervention costs is often a deciding factor for customer sale!
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Industrial Internet
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GE job title/12
12 GE Oil & Gas Proprietary & Confidential Information – for internal use only
© 2012 GE – All Rights Reserved
Industrial Internet creating value in Oil & Gas
Intelligent
Machines Advance
Analytics People at
Work
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In conclusion
The key for a successful Prognosis solution
implementation is an adequate management
of Big Data. At GE Oil & Gas, the Industrial
Internet will provide the tools and means
necessary to achieve this goal and facilitate
the transition to Brilliant Machines.
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For more information, please visit..
Industrial Internet • http://www.ge.com/sites/default/files/Industrial_Internet.pdf
GE Predictivity™ Industrial Internet Solutions • https://www.ge.com/b2b/predictivity
Data Management & Data Analytics Software • http://www.ge-ip.com/products/data-management-data-analytics/c557
GE Oil & Gas Artificial Lift (ESP) • http://www.ge-energy.com/products_and_services/products/electric_submersible_pumping_systems/index.jsp
• http://www.ge-energy.com/products_and_services/products/artificial_lift_controls/index.jsp
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