1 © 2015 Ipsos.1
Bosnia and HerzegovinaPublic Opinion Poll
APRIL-MAY 2018
METHODOLOGY
2 © 2015 Ipsos.
3 © 2015 Ipsos.
METHODOLOGY
DATA COLLECTION
• 25 April – 15 May, 2018
METHOD
• Quantitative face to face survey within households
• Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method)
POPULATION
• Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+
SAMPLE FRAME
• Polling station territories database (CEC)
SAMPLE SIZE
• N=2,059 (1142 in FBiH, 917 in RS, 200 boost sample in Croat majority areas)
• Data are weighted where necessary (by region, age, gender and education) in order to reflect the true population allocation according to the 2013 census
SAMPLING ERROR
• +/- 2.2% on full sample
• +/- 3.1% at entity level
SAMPLE TYPE
• Stratified sample
STRATIFICATION
• Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and settlement type
STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION
• Step 1: Random selection of polling stations
• Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique)
• Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HH (Kisch scheme)
4 © 2015 Ipsos.
RESEARCH RESULTS
STATEWIDEOVERVIEW
5 © 2015 Ipsos.
9%
87%
Citizens continue to see BiH moving in the wrong direction; RS respondents are slightly less pessimistic about their entity than those in FBiH.
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving in the right or wrong direction?
Base: Total N=2059
8%
89%
RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION DK/REF
16%
78%
Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the right or wrong direction?
Base: FBiH Total N=1142
Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right or wrong direction?
Base: RS Total N=917
Statewide FBiH RS
6 © 2015 Ipsos.
Across demographic groups, citizens of BiH are fairly pessimistic about the near future.
Thinking about the next year, do you expect that your life and the lives of your family members will be better, worse or the same as today?
Base: Total N=2059
16%
30%51%
BETTER
WORSE
SAME
26%
33%
36%
25%
27%
32%
35%
Bosniak
Serb
Croat
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
7 © 2015 Ipsos.
46%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
7%
11%
Unemployment
The outflow of population
Corruption
Low income
Poor economic situation
Political Situation / Politicians
Crime
Poverty / Low standard
OTHER (<2%)
DK/REF
40%
12%
7%
7%
6%
4%
4%
3%
7%
10%
Unemployment
Political Situation / Politicians
Corruption
The outflow of population
Low income
Poor economic situation
Poverty / Low standard
Divided Nations (National / Ethnic)
OTHER (<2%)
DK/REF
Pessimism is still driven by political and economic stagnation. Emigration appears to be a growing concern.
What would you name as the two biggest problems that FBiH is facing today? (first mentioned)
Base: FBiH Total N=1142
What would you name as the two biggest problems that RS is facing today? (first mentioned)
Base: RS Total N=917
2017 50% 2017 55%
8 © 2015 Ipsos.
The view that politicians use ethnic tension for political gain may be softening slightly, driven by pronounced movement among Bosniaks and Serbs.
Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain?
Base: Total N=2059
16%
77%
7% MORE INTERESTED IN REDUCING
ETHNIC TENSION
MORE INTERESTED IN USING ETHNIC
TENSION FOR POLITICAL GAIN
DK/REF
2017More interested in reducing ethnic tension: 7%More interested in using ethnic tension for political gain: 85%
9 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens continue to view the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina through an ethnic lens.
Which of the following best describes your view about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Base: Total N=2059
42%
26%
12%
11%
8%
63%
17%
5%
13%
2%
6%
51%
27%
9%
6%
42%
9%
8%
9%
33%
Entities should be abolished
Arrangement of the state should remain unchanged
BiH should be divided into three independent states
BiH should be divided into several economic regions
Third, Croatian entity should be formed
TOTAL Bosniak Serb Croat
10 © 2015 Ipsos.
Croats and Bosniaks differ significantly on the territorial organization of the FBiH.
Which of the following statements best describes your personal view about the territorial arrangement of the Federation BiH?
Base: FBiH Total N=1142
45%
20%
12%
12%
11%
51%
23%
14%
5%
7%
33%
12%
7%
34%
14%
The Federation should remain one entity, but cantons should beabolished
The Federation BiH should be divided economically into several regions
The territorial arrangement of the Federation should remain unchanged
The Federation should be divided ethnically between Croats and Bosniaks
DK/REF
TOTAL BOSNIAK CROAT
11 © 2015 Ipsos.
More than half say media rarely provide accurate and impartial information. Croats are particularly distrustful.
Generally speaking, do the media in BiH provide you with accurate and impartial information?
Base: Total N=2059
10%
35%
31%
21%ALMOST ALWAYS
SOMETIMES
NOT VERY OFTEN
ALMOST NEVER
Not very often+Almost never: 52%
(Bosniak: 50%, Serb: 48%, Croat: 63%)
12 © 2015 Ipsos.
Respondents believe media disinformation exists and clearly see its negative impact.
Do you believe disinformation exists in media coverage of social, political and economic issues?/Do you think disinformation in the media causes confusion in the public about the basic facts of current events and issues?
Base: Total N=2059/1736
84%
9%
YES (DISINFORMATION
EXISTS)
NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT EXIST)
92%
5%
YES (DISINFORMATION
CAUSES PUBLIC CONFUSION)
NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT CAUSE
PUBLIC CONFUSION)
13 © 2015 Ipsos.
The public is moderately concerned about incoming migration and refugee flows through BiH.
How concerned are you about migration and refugee flows in BiH?
Base: Total N=2059
14%
25%31%
27%
2%
Very concerned Somewhat concerned
Not very concerned Not at all concerned
39%Concerned
14 © 2015 Ipsos.
More than half express general concern about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH.
And how concerned are you about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH?
Base: Total N=2059
22%
32%28%
14%5%
VERY CONCERNED SOMEWHAT CONCERNED
NOT VERY CONCERNED NOT AT ALL CONCERNED
56% Bosniak59% Serbs39% Croats
54%Concerned
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RESEARCH RESULTS
BIH ACCESSION TO EU
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Eight out of ten people in BiH support accession to the EU – including a clear majority of Serbs.
Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU?
Base: Total N=2059
87%
60%
82%
11%
30%
12%
Bosniak
Serb
Croat
77% 17%
SUPPORT OPPOSE
2017 - Serb47% Support46% Oppose
17 © 2015 Ipsos.
Respondents are not satisfied with progress toward EU accession.
How satisfied are you with the progress made toward BiH EU accession?
Base: Total N=2059
8%
32%
22%
34%
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
8% Very satisfied 34% Very dissatisfied
18 © 2015 Ipsos.
One-quarter of BiH population doubts BiH will ever gain EU membership.
Regardless of how you just answered, do you expect BiH to become an EU member by 2025, after 2025, or do you doubt BiH will ever gain EU membership?
Base: Total N=2059
25%
37%
27%
11%
BY 2025
AFTER 2025
NEVER
DK/REF
31%
13%
35%
39%
36%
33%
23%
38%
16%
Bosniak
Serb
Croat
19 © 2015 Ipsos.
BiH citizens doubt the intentions of political leaders regarding their work on accession to the EU.
Do you believe that political leaders and parties are working in good faith to achieve EU accession?
Base: Total N=2059
6%
53%
36% 5%YES
SOME ARE/SOME ARE NOT
NO
20 © 2015 Ipsos.
Across ethnic lines, survey respondents have high expectations for EU membership.
To what degree do you believe that EU membership would improve economic conditions and life in general for BiH citizens?
Base: Total N=2059
25%
45%
17%9%
4%
Would improve a great deal Would improve somewhat
Would not improve much Would not improve at all
70%Improve
79%
55%
71%
19%
39%
25%
Bosniak
Serb
Croat
21 © 2015 Ipsos.
EU membership is not an abstraction – it is personally important for Federation residents and their families, particularly Bosniaks.
How important is it for you and your family for BiH to gain EU membership in the years ahead?
Base: FBiH Total N=1142
39% 39%
15%5% 2%
Very important Somewhat important
Not very important Not at all important
78%Important
82% Bosniaks69% Croats
22 © 2015 Ipsos.
RS respondents view EU accession for BiH as more important than membership for Serbia and prefer to join as part of BiH, not independently.
26%
12%
34%
22%
6%
EU membership for BiH
EU membership for Serbia
Both are equally important
Neither is important
DK/Ref
Thinking again about EU accession, which is more important to you personally: EU membership for BiH or EU membership for Serbia?/And do you think it would be better for the RS to join the EU independently, or as part of BiH?
Base: RS Total N=917
16%
42%
17%
16%
10%
RS independently
RS as part of BiH
It makes no difference
I don't support EU membership at all
DK/Ref
23 © 2015 Ipsos.
RESEARCH RESULTS
ELECTIONS
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Citizens (especially Croats) have grave concerns about the integrity of elections in BiH.
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Base: Total N=2059
11%
31%
52%
6%
12%
32%
52%
4%
13%
36%
42%
9%
3%
22%
67%
8%
ELECTIONS IN BiH ARETYPICALLY FREE AND
FAIR
ELECTIONS IN BiH ARETYPICALLY FREE AND
FAIR, BUT WITH SOMESHORTCOMINGS
ELECTIONS IN BiH ARENOT FREE AND FAIR
DK/REF
ALL
BOSNIAK
SERB
CROAT
25 © 2015 Ipsos.
Three-quarters of Croats believe that the electoral system does not provide adequate representation of all groups.
I am going to read you two statements about the electoral system in BiH. Please tell me which of the statements comes closer to your view.
Base: Total N=2059
29%
59%
12%
29%
62%
8%
35%
47%
18%
15%
73%
12%
The current electoralsystem provides for
adequaterepresentation of all
groups in BiH
The electoral systemshould be altered to
ensure equitablerepresentation of all
groups in BiH
DK/REF
ALL
BOSNIAK
SERB
CROAT
26 © 2015 Ipsos.
Only one-third of respondents are satisfied with the parties and lists on offer in the past few elections.
Regardless of whether you voted or what parties you may have supported in 2014 and 2016, how satisfied were you with the parties and lists you had to choose from in the past few elections?
Base: Total N=2059
6%
27% 28%33%
6%
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
33%Satisfied
29%
40%
FBiH
RS&Brcko
27 © 2015 Ipsos.
Interest in the election is lower than we have seen previously - fewer than half of respondents say they would certainly vote if elections were held now.
41%
23%
9%
19%
9%
I WOULDCERTAINLY VOTE
I WOULD PROBABLYVOTE
I PROBABLY WOULDNOT VOTE
I CERTAINLYWOULD NOT VOTE
DK/REF
If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote?
Base: Total N= 2059
2017 51%2014 53%2014 General Elections Tournout 54.5%
Bosniaks 47%Serb 40%Croat 20%
28 © 2015 Ipsos.
RESEARCH RESULTS
Federation BiH
29 © 2015 Ipsos.
The current Federation government is still not implementing policies that improve the lives of its citizens, however ratings have improved somewhat.
How would you rate the performance of the current Federation government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the FBiH?
Base: FBiH Total N=1142
37% 33%21%
7%1% 1%
LOWEST RATING 2 3 4 HIGHEST RATING
Total rating 1-2 70%2017 84%
30 © 2015 Ipsos.
RESEARCH RESULTS
Republika Srpska
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RS citizens continue to regard the performance of the current RS government as very weak.
How would you rate the performance of the current RS government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the RS?
Base: RS Total N=917
25%31% 35%
6% 3% 1%
LOWEST RATING 2 3 4 HIGHEST RATING
Total rating 1-2 56%2017 60%
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More than one-quarter believe that leadership change would be good for RS – few believe it will make things worse.
9%
18%
41%
13%
7%
13%
Much better than the currentgoverning coalition
Somewhat better
About the same
Somewhat worse
Much worse
DK/REF
In your opinion, how would a united opposition govern RS, compared to the current governing coalition led by SNSD?/As you know, Milorad Dodikcannot seek a third term as RS president, so RS will elect a new president this year. Do you believe that this will lead to positive change in RS, do you think it will have negative results, or do you think that it will make no real difference to RS? Base: RS Total N=917
25%
16%
52%
8%
Positive change
Negative results
No real difference
DK/REF
33 © 2015 Ipsos.
We see dramatic growth in the credibility of Alliance for Change as a viable alternative to the current coalition.
I will now read a pair of statements. Please choose the one that more closely describes your opinion?
Base: RS Total N=917
34%
39%
27%
AFC IS A CREDIBLE GOVERNING
ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT
RULING COALITION IN THE RS
AFC IS NOT A CREDIBLE
GOVERNING ALTERNATIVE TO
THE COALITION OF RULING PARTIES IN
THE RS
DK/REF
Spring 2017 - 26%RS Voters 38%
Spring 2017 - 49%RS Voters 44%
Spring 2017 - 25%RS Voters 18%
34 © 2015 Ipsos.
RS voters are not interested in procedural or mechanical matters; they want policy solutions and good candidates.
36%
22%
10%
7%
5%
20%
Offer clear policy solutions for citizens' problems
Offer better qualified candidates
Have joint candidates for RS President and for BiH Presidency
Have joint candidate lists for BiH PA and RSNA
Have separate candidates and candidate lists
DK/REF
Regardless of how you currently feel about Alliance for Change, thinking ahead to the 2018 general election, what should the opposition coalition do to be a more credible option for voters?
Base: RS Total N=917
35 © 2015 Ipsos.
Budget cuts and new revenue are seen as key to economic stability and growth in RS.
Some have said that long term economic stability and growth in RS can only happen if we cut public spending and increase government revenue. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Base: RS Total N=917
30%40%
10% 8% 12%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
70%Agree
36 © 2015 Ipsos.
Reforms aimed at self-dealing and transparency have broad appeal.
Now I will read you some policies that have been proposed to balance the budget and stabilize the RS economy. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in improving the economic situation in RS.
Base: RS N=917
58%
57%
50%
50%
45%
29%
30%
33%
32%
38%
FORBID EMPLOYMENT OF IMMEDIATE RELATIVES OF PUBLIC OFFICIALS
A RULE THAT PUBLIC EMPLOYEES CAN RECEIVE ONLY ONE SALARY FROM THE RS BUDGET
REDUCE THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN RS ADMINISTRATION
PUBLISH ALL BUDGET EXPENSES OVER 1000 BAM FOR RS PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
ENSURE THAT TAXES AND BENEFITS ARE PAID BEFORE SALARIES ARE DISTRIBUTED
Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective
37 © 2015 Ipsos.
Anti nepotism rules are seen as the most effective reform measure; streamlining the public payroll and ending “double dipping” are right behind.
36%
27%
24%
6%
6%
Forbid employment of immediate relatives of RS officials
Only one public salary
Reduce the number of employees in RS administration
Prevent distribution of net salaries without regular tax and
Publish budget expenses over 1000 BAM
Which 1 or 2 of these measures do you think would be MOST effective in stimulating the RS economy?
Base: RS Total N=917
38 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens in all areas of RS agree that agriculture is a significant development opportunity.
41%
43%
6%
4%
6%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
DK/REF
Some say that agriculture is a great development opportunity for RS and that if properly managed, the agricultural sector could become a key source of employment, export and overall growth and development for RS. Please tell me whether you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or disagree strongly with this claim?
Base: RS Total N=917
39 © 2015 Ipsos.
Several policies proposed by AfC are considered likely to be effective in stimulating the agricultural sector.
Regardless of how you just answered, I would like to read you some measures that have been suggested to stimulate the agricultural sector in RS. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective.
Base: RS N=917
44%
42%
42%
36%
35%
36%
ESTABLISH AN EFFICIENT ACTIVITY COORDINATION SYSTEM WITH BIH LEVEL
AUTHORITIES IN ORDER TO OBTAIN AVAILABLE EU PRE-ACCESSION FUNDS.
REPLACE ANNUALLY ADOPTED AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES WITH SUBSIDIES THAT ARE SET FOR
AT LEAST FIVE YEARS.
SET THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AT 6% OR 7% OF RS DOMESTIC INCOME.
Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE
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DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE
48% 52%
MALE FEMALE
26%62%
12%
ELEMENTARY OR LESS SECONDARY COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY
22%
22%
25%
31%
18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
GENDER EDUCATION AGE
42 © 2015 Ipsos.
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE
42%
58%
URBAN RURAL
42%
39%
18%
BOSNIAK SERB CROAT OTHER
TYPE OF SETTLEMENT ETHNICITY
43 © 2015 Ipsos.
55%
45%
FBiH RS & DISTRICT BRCKO
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE
REGIONS ENTITY
Region %
Una-Sana Canton 5.7
Tuzla Canton 8.9
Zenica-Doboj Canton 7.1
Central Bosnia Canton 7.4
Herzegovina-Neretva Canton 7.4
West Herzegovina Canton 4.3
Canton Sarajevo 8.5
Canton 10 3.1
Posavina Canton 2.3
Bosnian-Podrinje Canton 0.8
North Republika Srpska 26.5
East Republika Srpska 15.4
District Brcko 2.7