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PurposeThe purpose of my research project is to create a simulation of a
many-species, non-static, many-variable ecosystem
According to user preferences, many desired ecosystem simulations will be able to be run. In my case, I am focusing limiting the species to the dinosaurs of the late Cretaceous era
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Subject / Goals The scope of my project will include hypothetical situations, which
will be applicable to real-life, and possibly a real-world model
Based on known facts of the dinosaurs, the user will be able to input unknown or hypothetical facts about dinosaurs and thus create a possible simulation of what could have happened on our Earth in the Cretaceous era
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Overview Producer / Predator / Prey dinosaur ecosystem based on the late
Cretaceous era with chance factors Unique species Consequence algorithm for dinosaur conflicts Trait accumulation Reproduction algorithm for mutations and creations of new species Natural disasters Eggs
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Expected ResultsI will validate success by the accuracy as represented by the common
behavior of real world ecosystems
For example, if there are many carnivores preying on a few herbivores, the expected results in sequence would be:
1 – Herbivores are near extinction / are extinct. 2 – Carnivores begin to die out. 3 – Grass regrows fully.
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Other Research Cellular Automata Model of Macroevolution: the constant
evolution of a biomass of a multi-species system
A Jump-Growth Model for Predator-Prey Dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems: evolution to catch prey, equation to calculate populations
Predator-Prey Model: linear rate (Lotka-Volterra), group immunity (Kermack-McKendrick), constant uptake (Jacob-Monod), carrying maximum capacity (Logistic), self-predation (Ricker's)
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Other Research Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal
Dinosaurs: energy-size ratio, warm-blooded / endothermic dinosaurs
Fossil Record of Predation in Dinosaurs: predatory features, consumption records, chemical analyses
What killed the Dinosaurs? A Great Mystery: exploring the K-T extinction theory and the surrounding events
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Usage• Load the program• Use sliders • Toggle on/off desired functions• Hit 'Setup'• 'Step' for 1 iteration, 'Go' for continuous (adjusted by speed bar at
the top)
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Procedures / Methods Using NetLogo Accomplishing by building top-down, building simple, then
advancing to more advanced functions A complicated simulated system with many variables for the user to
control BehaviorSpace for data storage
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Timeline• Q1 : Basics – Predator-prey, herbivore-producer, basic predation,
modeling
• Q2 : Dinosaur focus – narrowed late Cretaceous, predation range, additional 2 species, reproduction algorithm, prey selection algorithm, movement algorithm
• Q3 : Another producer I have implemented more than one producer, water spots, geological dead zones, natural disasters, and eggs.
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Project Testing / ProblemsProject testing simply consists of running the program and comparing it to the expected results, and finding inconsistencies with real-life dinosaur simulation possibilities and expected ecosystem results
The NetLogo program runs almost exclusively to working programs – if it's incomplete, it can not run, instead giving an error
Currently, the only existing error is that I can not get each egg to hatch into specifically different dinosaurs without adding an additional and cheap variable. In order to do it using a general algorithm, I simply need to create uniquely colored eggs than have some sort of color boolean check if it is a certain color, and hatch it.
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Algorithms• Grass regrowth• Generic consumption• Conflict sequence • Predation range• Reproduction• Prey selection• Natural disaster • Eggs• Unique encounters• Extinction• Time • Growth (working)
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Hypothesis• Due to the harsh environment of the dinosaur ages, species
fluctuations as the result of these powerful beasts' conflicts can cause an imbalance in the ecosystem.
• Learning from the results given the specific parameters, based on the populations involved
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Results 1 Predator / High Energy Gain / High Reproduction Invasive Species Effect Drought Effect Flood Effect Earthquake Overgrowth Effect Over Predation