Download - R ATIONAL A CTION T HEORY
RATIONAL
ACTION
THEORY
QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS OFLARGE-SCALE
DATA SETS
RAT AND QAD, ARE THEY MARRIED BY NOW OR
STILL SINGLES?
?
THE BRIEF ANSWER:
RAT AND QAD STILL HAVE NOT TIED THE KNOT
AND ACTUALLY, RAT NOW IS CALLING QAD NAMES
THE INVENTED INVECTIVE: VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY
WOUT ULTEEDEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY
RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS
ICS 20th ANNIVERSARY GRONINGEN NOVEMBER 11, 2006
TO ANSWER ITS QUESTION, THIS PRESENTATION DISCUSSES PAPERS
BY NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN
IT SEEMS OBVIOUS THAT THE THESE TWO PAPERS, FROM ICS
MEMBERS, ARE MORE WITHIN QAD THAN WITHIN RAT
VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY IS ALIVE AND WELL IN THE ICS?
SEQUENCE IN MY PRESENTATION* DID RAT INVENT A SCAPEGOAT?
* DOES RAT OFFER A SOUND EXEMPLAR?
* DOES RAT HAVE ENOUGH PUZZLES?
* HOW DOES RAT DEAL WITH CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS?
* RAT AND ONE- OR MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES?
* RAT: ONLY MARKETS OR MORE INSTITUTIONS?
* RAT: INDIVIDUALS WHO ACT LOGICALLY OR INDIVIDUALS WHO THINK IN ANALOGIES?
IS RAT A STUMBLING PARADIGM?
RAT HAS QAD AS A SCAPEGOAT
AND THE BÊTE NOIRE IS DUNCAN’S PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-
ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE
BOUDON CURSED DUNCAN’S MODEL AS VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY,
THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION WAS APPLIED AGAIN TO DUNCAN’S
MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM
AND IS NOWAPPLIED GENERALLY BY ESSER
BLAU & DUNCAN, THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE, 1967, p. 170
THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH PERTAINS TO THE USA IN 1962
SURELY, FIVE INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES
DOTS REFER TO CONCEPTS, ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS
MISSINGCOEFFI-CIENTS
.342
.321
.288
.313
DUNCAN’S INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR FOUR AGE GROUPS
DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT
THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO INDUSTRY
WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S
OCCUPATION
AND STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION
TO BRING QAD INTO THE BOAT
OF RAT,
RAT OFFERS AN EXEMPLAR TO
QAD:
COLEMAN’S BOAT
COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, P. 6:
‘THE MAJOR PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF SYSTEM
BEHAVIOR
BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A LEVEL BELOW
THAT OF THE SYSTEM
IS THAT OF MOVING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE SYSTEM
LEVEL’NOTE: NOT MOVING FROM THE HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL
THE SOLUTION: COLEMAN’S BOAT
TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM 2005, p. 115
SOCIETAL EDUCATIONAL
INEQUALITY
SOCIETAL INCOME
INEQUALITY
INDIVIDUALEDUCATION
INDIVIDUAL INCOME
COLEMAN’S BOAT APPLIED TO THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE
Coleman, ‘Microfoundations and macrosocial behavior’, 1987
THIS COLEMAN BOAT IS NOT SEAWORTHY
THE BOTTOM OF COLEMAN’S BOAT IS ALSO ITS ROOF
THE BEST BOAT IS A RAFT
DUNCAN’S RELATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND INCOME IS NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL
RELATION
IT IS ALSO A MACRO PROPERTY: IT REFERS TO THE USA IN 1962
AND IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY: IT CAN
BE COMPUTED FOR OTHER PLACES AND TIMES
INDIVIDUALEDUCATION
USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1973
ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY
INDIVIDUALEDUCATION
USA 1962
INDIVIDUALINCOMEUSA 1962
INDIVIDUALEDUCATION
NETHERLANDS 1993
INDIVIDUALINCOME
NETHERLANDS1993
INDIVIDUALEDUCATION
NETHERLANDS2003
INDIVIDUALINCOME
NETHERLANDS2003
OCCUPATION FATHER
OCCUPATIONSON
INFLOW ANDOUTFLOW
PERCENTAGES
ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE
OUTCOMES
A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO REPRESENT THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE
THIRD GENERATION OF MOBILITY STUDIES
THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE MACROQUESTIONS
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
RAT IS A PARADIGM ALTERNATIVE TO QAD, BUT WITHOUT A GESTALT SWITCH
ONE ERROR OF COLEMAN’S BOAT IS THAT IT DRAWS LINES FOR EFFECTS BETWEEN CONCEPTS, INSTEAD OF
LINES FOR DERIVABILITY BETWEEN FALSIFIABLE PROPOSITIONS
THE OTHER ERROR IS THE GOAL OF MOVING FROM MICRO TO MACRO
IT IS EASIER TO MOVE FROM MACRO TO MICRO AND STARTING WITH MACROPROBLEMS DOES THE TRICK
RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A PARADIGM LARGELY
WITHOUT PUZZLES, AND EVEN MORE SO PUZZLES
ABOUT SOCIETIES
GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AN EMPIRICAL
REGULARITY, WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE
GOLDTHORPE, ON SOCIOLOGY, 2000
ALSO, ANY GOOD THEORY EXPLAINS A HOST OF EMPIRICAL
REGULARITIES
UNTIL NOW RAT DOES NOT DO SO
RATHER, RAT OFFERS SEVERAL EXPLANATIONS FOR ONE
REGULARITY
THAT IS TOPSYTURVYDOM
THESE TO-BE-EXPLAINED EMPIRICAL
REGULARITIES SHOULD PERTAIN TO SOCIETIES
IF THE REGULARITIES PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS
ONLY, THEY FALL OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
SOCIOLOGY’S QUESTIONS
NEED’S PAPER AND VAN TUBERGEN’S PAPER TAKE SOCIETIES AS THE UNITS
ON WHICH QUESTIONS ARE BEING RAISED
THESE QUESTIONS ALSO REFER TO THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE POPULATIONS OF THESE
SOCIETIES
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN RAISE MULTI-UNIT QUESTIONS
VAN TUBERGEN SEEKS TO EXPLAIN SEVERAL EMPIRICAL
REGULARITIES
NEED HAS A PUZZLE:
WHY DO MORE LIBERAL ABORTION LAWS IN A
COUNTRY NOT ALWAYS MAKE FOR MORE
ABORTIONS?
THE SOCIOLOGY OF HEALTH HAS MANY PUZZLES OF NEED’S TYPE:
COUNTRIES WHERE PERSONS HAVE THE MOST SEXUAL
PARTNERS, ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST INCIDENCE OF
SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS AND UNPLANNED
PREGNANCIESWellings, The Lancet, November 4, 2006
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO MODEL’S PUZZLE THAT
WHEREAS THE POPULATION OF THE NETHERLANDS IS
RELATIVELY TOLERANT OF MIGRANTS,
IN THE NETHERLANDS SELF-EMPLOYMENT OF MIGRANTS IS
RELATIVELY LOW?Model, Martens, Silberman, Veenman, ‘Immigrant incorporation in France, England and the Netherlands’ paper presented at RC28 in
Libourne in 2000
PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES
PUZZLES ARE ANCHORS FOR COLEMAN’S BOAT
MACROPUZZLES MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE FROM
MACRO- TO MICROTHEORIES
THE HEAVIEST ANCHORS ARE MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES
CRIMINOLOGISTS ARE LESS CRIMINAL THAN THE REST,
SO HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE CRIMINOLOGISTS IN A
COUNTRY GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME?
DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHY-WASHY ADVICE
INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT FIRST-OFFENDERS BECOME
RECIDIVISTS?
DO NOT THROW OUT MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES
AS ‘ECOLOGICAL FALLACIES’ OR
‘AGGREGATIVE FALLACIES’
THINK UP HYPOTHESES ABOUT CONTEXTUAL
EFFECTSRobinson, ‘Ecological correlations and behavior of individuals’, 1950
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE HYPOTHESES WITH CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS
CATHOLICS ARE MORE AGAINST ABORTION IN COUNTRIES WITH A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLICS
IF THERE ARE MORE MIGRANTS IN A COUNTRY, THE PERCENT OF SELF-EMPLOYED AMONG MIGRANTS IS
HIGHER
MACRO-X MACRO-Y
MICRO-X MICRO-Y
CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND THE COLEMAN BOAT
COLEMAN’S BOAT DOES NOT NEED REINFORCEMENT OF THE HULL
COLEMAN’S BOAT NEEDS ANCHORS, SAILS AND PEDALS FOR THE RAFT
SOME PARADIGMS IN SOCIOLOGY COMPRISE,
APART FROM A HOST OF EXPLAINED REGULARITIES,
ONE HIGHER-LEVEL AXIOM
AND SEVERAL LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES
LENSKI CALLS THEM MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES
Lenski, ‘Rethinking macrosociological theory’, 1988
TWO EXAMPLES OF MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES IN
SOCIOLOGY OUTSIDE RAT:
LENSKI-NOLAN ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM
THE DURKHEIM-LAZARSFELD-HIRSCHI
INTEGRATION HYPOTHESIS
RAT MAY BECOME MULTI-LAYERED,
BUT RIGHT NOW IT OFTEN IS NOT
RAT’S QUEST FOR MECHANISMS SIDETRACKS
DIJKSTERHUIS, MECHANIZATION OF THE WORLD PICTURE, 1950, compare HEDSTRÖM AND SWEDBORG,
SOCIAL MECHANISMS, 1998, p. 2, n. 4
A HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS
CORRECTS A LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS
RAT DOES NOT ALWAYS APPRECIATE
THIS Popper, ‘The aim of science’, 1957, p. 32
compare HEDSTRÖM, PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY, p. 31, law-covering explanations do not allow of exceptions, explanations by mechanisms do
allow exceptions
MOVING FROM A LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS TO A
HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS
AMOUNTS TO RE-INTERPRETING AN
INHERENT PROPERTY AS
A RELATIONAL PROPERTYPopper, ‘Aim of science’, 1957, p. 29
NEED HAD A MULTI-LAYERED THEORY IN 2004, VAN TUBERGEN
IN 2005
BUT DID THEIR HIGHEST-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS
CORRECT LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES?
De Graaf, Need & Ultee, ‘Leaving the church in the Netherlands, a comprehensive explanation of three empirical regularities’,
2004
F. VAN TUBERGEN, THE INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN A CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE, 2005
HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND MAKE MULTI-
LAYERED THEORIES?
DISTINGUISH TYPES OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES
AND SPELL OUT A THEORY COMPRISING HIGHER- AND
LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
WHICH AXIOMS AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES THE RAT
PARADIGM HAVE?BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE FAMILY, 1981, p. viii
‘THIS VOLUME USES THE ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING
BEHAVIOR, STABLE PREFERENCES, AND
EQUILIBRIUM IN IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT MARKETS’
BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM THAT INDIVIDUALS ARE
RATIONAL AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT THEY ACT
ON MARKETS
HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS
RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A MISNOMER
THE PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY
THIS IS NOW RECOGNIZED IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF
RELIGIONALBERT, MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK,
1967
Iannaccone, ‘Voodoo economics?’, 1995, p. 76: ‘… a[n] … application of rational choice [theory] - the religious market alternative to
secularization theory - …’
HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY?
RAT IS IN NEED OF A THEORY OF SOCIETY
WHICH GOES BEYOND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT
MARKETS ARE THE ONLY INSTITUTION COORDINATING
HUMAN ACTION
HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL GOODS:
* MARKETS HUNGER AVERSION
* HIERARCHIES PAIN AVERSION
* COMMUNITIES DERISION AVERSIONFREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY PHILOSOPHERS, 1953
SO, APART FROM MARKET SOCIOLOGY
THERE IS
ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND
CULTURAL SOCIOLOGY
THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN RATIONAL ACTION AND NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR IS FALSE
VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF COLLECTIVE GOODS BY SOCIETAL
POLITIES:
* WISE BENEVOLENT DICTATOR
* TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS
* A POPULATION MAKING UNANIMOUS DECISIONS
* MAJORITY DECISIONSVAN DEN DOEL, DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE ECONOMICS, 1978
BLAU AND THE PRODUCTION OF SOCIAL RELATIONS (MARRIAGES,
CRIMES) BY PREFERENCES AND OPPORTUNITIES
* SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS ON ONE PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE
* MOBILITY IN TIME ALONG ONE PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRCUTRE
* CROSS-CUTTING PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE
* CONCENTRIC CIRCLES OF PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE
BLAU, CROSSCUTTING SOCIAL CIRCLES, 1984
IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO OUTCOMES:
MARKETS: OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR COMPETITIVE EXCESSES?
HIERARCHIES: CRIME-FREE STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC PATCHWORK?
COMMUNITIES: SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH
SECRETE VICES?ELIAS, UEBER DEN PROZESS DER ZIVILISATION, 1939
LIPSKY, STREET LEVEL BUREAUCRACY, 1980
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT
MARKET FREEDOMS:
USING OR NOT USING THE RIGHT
TO ABORTION
EQUAL RIGHTS TO A JOB
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN ALSO HAVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HIERARCHIES:
MORE OR LESS LIBERAL STATE LAWS ABOUT
ABORTION
STRICTER OR LESS STRICT LAWS ABOUT ENTERING A
STATE
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT COMMUNITIES TOO:
RELIGIOUS PERSONS ARE MORE AGAINST ABORTION IN
COUNTRIES WITH MORE RELIGIOUS PERSONS
MIGRANTS ARE MORE LIKELY SELF-EMPLOYED IN
COUNTRIES WITH MORE MIGRANTS
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN PROPOSE MULTI-INSTITUTION EXPLANATIONS,
AND THEREFORE GO BEYOND BECKERIAN MARKET SOCIOLOGY OF
THE FAMILY AND
STARKIAN MARKET SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION
DO NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE ALTERNATIVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO
OUTCOMES?STARK & FINKE, ACTS OF FAITH, 2000
THAT WAS MY LONG ANSWER TO THE
RAT-QAD RELATION QUESTION:
THE QAD OF NEED AND VAN
TUBERGEN IS NOT VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY
THEIR QAD ACTUALLY GOES BEYOND RAT
THUS RUNS MY RESURRECTION OF THE
RAT PARADIGM BY WAY OF BETTER
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
IT IS POSSIBLE TO GO BEYOND THE RAT
AXIOM THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY?
COMPARE HEDSTRÖM, DISSECTING THE SOCIAL, ON THE
PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY, 2005
WITH LENSKI, ECOLOGICAL-EVOLUTIONARY THEORY,
PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS, 2005
HEDSTRÖM DISCUSSES THE PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL
SOCIOLOGY WITHOUT ALWAYS STATING THEM CLEARLY
LENSKI ENUMERATES THE PRINCIPLES OF ECOLOGICAL
EVOLUTIONISM BEFORE APPLYING THEM
HEDSTRÖM HAS ONE EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, LENSKI FOUR
ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM CONTAINS THE ASSUMPTION
THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY,
AND IS MUCH RICHER IN AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
AND MACRO-EFFECTS
HOW TO IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL
EVOLUTIONISM?
ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES TO THE AXIOM THAT
PERSONS ACT RATIONALLY?
THE FIRST ALTERNATIVE AXIOM
HOW DO PERSONS MAKE COGNITIONS COHERENT?
THEY CHANGE COGNITIONS BUT MAINTAIN THEIR WORLDVIEW
ACTIONS OF INDIVIDUALS ARE ADEQUATE TO THEIR WORLDVIEW
Weber, ‘Protestantische Ethik’, 1905; cf. Webbink & Ultee, ‘Orthodox Protestantism and vaccination in the Netherlands: unorthodox questions about modernization, markets, and
secularization’, forthcoming
TO ANSWER MACRO QUESTIONS, APART FROM A THEORY OF
INDIVIDUAL ACTION,
A THEORY IS NEEDED ABOUT INDIVIDUAL THINKING
PEOPLE DO ALWAYS NOT THINK LOGICALLY
THEY OFTEN THINK IN ANALOGIES
THE SECOND ALTERNATIVE AXIOM
HUMAN BEINGS FIRST THINK IN ANALOGIES, THEN LOGICALLY
EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGIST PINKER, THE BLANK SLATE, 2002, AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGIST DAWKINS, THE GOD DELUSION, 2006
THREE TYPES OF ANALOGIES:
BIOMORPHIC MODELS SOCIOMORPHIC MODELS
TECHNOMORPHIC MODELSTOPITSCH, VOM URSPRUNG UND ENDE DER METAPHYSIK, 1958
LENSKI TOPITSCHTYPE OF THOUGHT
SOCIETY MODEL
HUNTING AND GATHERING BIOMORPHIC
SIMPLE HORTICULTURE BIOMORPHIC
ADVANCED HORTICULTURE TECHNOMORPHIC
AGRARIAN SOCIOMORPHIC
EARLY INDUSTRIAL MACHINES LATER INDUSTRIAL COMPUTERS
Moor, Ultee & Need, ‘Analogies, subsistence technologies, and (non)moral supreme creator gods’ forthcoming
IN THIS WAY AN EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY
ARISES,
SURPASSING RATIONAL CHOICE ECONOMICS AND
BOUNDED RATIONALITY PSYCHOLOGY
DID I ‘SINK THE COLEMAN’?
COLEMAN’S BOAT WAS ALREADY MAKING WATER
BUT DID I PRESENT AN AIRWORTHY PLANE?
RAT-QAD VERSUS EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY
AS A THEME FOR 25 YEARS ICS!
THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE AT
www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee
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Wout Ultee
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