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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Rainer Münz
Paris, February 25, 2015
Global Migration
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Yesterday’s and today’s migration
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1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants increases
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
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Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, millions
Source: United Nations, Population Division
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Magnet societies: EU, Asia, US
20131990
International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Top 10 emigration countriesAbsolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
11.4
11.1
8.3
6.6
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.3
11.9
0 4 8 12
Mexico
India
Russian Federation
China
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Pakistan
United Kingdom
Philippines
Turkey
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Top 10 immigration countriesNumber of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010
42.8
12.3
10.8
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.7
5.5
5.4
0 15 30 45
United States
Russian Federation
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Australia
India
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
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Today most migrants come from middle- and low-income countriesNet migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per
1000)
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Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration recedes Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)
Data Source: UN; Erste Research
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Millions of migrants are neither documented and
nor counted in our statitstical data bases
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
The example of Europe
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Source: Eurostat, UN DESA
Net migration in Europe 2001-2009Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013
Net migration in Europe 2010-2012Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Direction changed recently
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
There are millions of people in need of
protection living in Europe’s neighborhood.Many more than the EU member states will ever
be able and willing to accommodate
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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Can we project today’s migration pattern into
the future?
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1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
2030
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
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1990 2000 2010 2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
2050
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
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Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn
All more developed countries
USA
xx xx
Source: Joel E. Cohen
UNPDestimate
WPP2010projection
Gravity model
Linear model
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Even for Europe we do not have good dataEuropean countries with largest net out and in-migration 2005-2009, by source
Rank Country EUROSTAT USCB UNPD WiC1 Romania -904,615 -32,058 -46,342 -100,0002 Lithuania -145,981 -12,801 -166,978 -36,0003 Belarus -145,678 32,671 52,266 -51,0004 Poland -85,558 -88,979 -60,268 55,0005 Latvia -84,549 -25,675 -89,138 -10,0006 Bulgaria -53,329 -135,993 -80,423 -50,0007 Armenia -31,776 -92,399 -139,099 -75,0008 Albania -28,818 -145,067 -170,893 -48,0009 Estonia -17,556 -21,187 -13,612 0
10 Republic of Moldova
-14,854 -196,149 -183,069 -172,000
10 Czech Republic 232,025 255,036 297,005 240,0009 Sweden 249,653 250,997 263,075 265,0008 Belgium 288,023 63,487 342,395 200,0007 Switzerland 301,164 224,792 338,020 182,0006 Turkey 361,867 224,053 -79,266 -49,0005 France 490,483 415,630 593,334 500,0004 Russian
Federation1,055,101 1,479,888 2,471,475 1,135,000
3 Italy 1,364,695 1,747,460 1,993,177 1,999,0002 United
Kingdom1,369,091 961,339 928,982 1,021,000
1 Spain 2,645,920 2,496,953 2,416,659 2,250,000Source: T. Buettner
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Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Poland
Source: T. Buettner
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Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Niger
Source: T. Buettner
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Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Philippines
Source: T. Buettner
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Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010
Per cent
Polynesia -45Micronesia -21Caribbean -14Central America -10Central Asia -8Northern Africa -6Western Africa -4Melanesia -4South-Central Asia -3Southern Asia -3Eastern Africa -2Middle Africa -2South-Eastern Asia -2South America -2Eastern Asia -1Southern Africa 1Eastern Europe 2Western Asia 3Southern Europe 8Western Europe 10Northern Europe 16Northern America 20Australia/New Zealand 36
Source: Francois Pelletier