Recent advances in the Ecopath with Ecosim
food web modelling approach15 November 2019, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
Jeroen Steenbeek, EII, Spain
My background
Brief overview of EwE
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
New spatial modelling capabilities and applications
Other ways to use EwE
The EwE ecosystem itself
Overview
My background
Classically trained software developer
Corporate years: The Netherlands 1992-1999
Industrial process software development
Media years: Canada 2000-2004
Multimedia, game development, web RIAs & GIS
Academic years: Canada 2004-2013
SAUP consultancy, EwE development and teaching
Best years: Spain 2013-
EwE development, consultancy, teaching, and software life cycle management
International collaborations, GIS, big data, serious gaming
Brief overview of EwE
Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
Ecological model that tracks the paths of energy through a food web
Functional groups, fleet/gears
Requires relatively few input parameters
Data often readily available(surveys, stock assessments, fisheries statistics, …)
Includes environment and human activities
Christensen and Walters 2004, EcoMod; Heymans et al. 2016, EcoMod
Ecopath with Ecosim
1984 Ecopath conceived (Polovina 1984)
1990 First desktop version released
1995 Ecosim introduced
1998 Ecospace introduced
2006 Re-engineered
2011 Ecopath R&D Consortium established
2012 Open source, community-driven
2019 Thirty-five years anniversary
Freely available from http://www.ecopath.org
http://ecobase.ecopath.orgColléter et al. 2015, EcoMod
EcoBase: 440 EwE models, 173 for download
8000+ users in 150+ countries (google analytics)
800+ peer-reviewed publication (ISI Web of Knowledge)
Ecopath with Ecosim
Ecopath with Ecosim
Three major components
Ecopath static mass-balanced model
Ecosim temporal dynamics
Ecospace spatial-temporal dynamics
Additional modules
Ecotracer contaminant tracing
‘Searches’ MCMC, spatial optimizations, MSE, fishing policy, …
Plug-ins extra features, interoperability, …
Heymans et al. 2016, EcoMod; Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
Ecopath
Main module of EwE, snapshot of the ecosystem
Define food web components and energy flows
Understand ecosystem structure and functioning
Evaluate impact of fisheries
Model of entire Mediterranean basin, Piroddi et al. 2018, MEPS
Ecosim
Temporal-dynamic module of EwE, initialized from Ecopath
Includes biomass and size structure dynamics
Introduces behaviour and temporal change
Used, among others, to assess
Quantify combined effect of species dynamics, fishing impacts, and environmental impacts on a food web over time
Replicate past scenarios (time series fitting)
Explore future scenarios
Explore fishing policy alternatives
Test model robustnessWalters et al. 1997, RFBF; Heymans et al. 2016, EcoMod Piroddi et al. 2017, SR
Time dynamic spatially explicit module of EwE, initialized from Ecosim. Introduces concepts of habitats, marine protected areas, and requires additional parameters related to movement and the use of space
Used, among others, to explore
Distribution of marine species and fishing effort
Effectiveness of management options
Ecosystem impacts of environmental change, habitat change, fishing
Combinations of the above
Ecospace
Walters et al. 1999, Ecosystems; Christensen et al. 2014, Ecosystems
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
After Cheung et al. 2010
Physical change in the ocean
SST increase
Retreat of sea ice
Acidification
Coastal hypoxic & oxygen min. zones
Rising sea surface levels
Biological / ecological change in the ocean
PhysiologyGrowth Body size
DistributionAbundanceRecruitment
Species compositionInvasion/extinction
ProductivitySpecies interactionEcosystem services
Ind
ividu
alPo
pu
lation
Co
mm
un
ityEco
system
Ecosystem modelling is more than considering biophysical impacts…
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Christensen 2013, Fisheries; Cury 2013, pers com.
..it also requires clear objectives, that models can address through
rigorous execution of scenarios
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Ecosystems are staggeringly complex
Feedback effects throughout entire system
Processes cross traditional scientific boundaries
Processes and time scales can span orders of magnitude
Cumulative impacts are often poorly understood (climate change, anthropogenic)
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful”
- George P. Box (1987)
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Ideas about model scope, abilities and purpose
vary greatly
One thing is clear
Models need to be able to work together
What does this mean for models?
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Increase scope and complexity of existing models (“Frankenmodel”, Mackinson et al 2009)
Merge existing models
Make existing models communicate
Make models collaborate
Make models exchange componentsComplexity
Popularity
How do models deal with these challenges?
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
Where we need to go…
Challenges to ecosystem modelling
What does this mean for the EwE approach?
EwE all-over strategy
Focus on core food-web science
Link / connect to everything else
Facilitate extending EwE with external functionality
Facilitate switching hypothesis (modularity)
Separate scientific and technical issues
Ground-breaking developments in spatial-temporal modelling and software capabilities
New capabilities and applications
Ecospace niche modelling
Christensen et al. 2014, Ecosystems
Original Ecospace offered limited capabilities to explain species distributions. Habitat usage was an aggregated assumption implying environmental preferences
Since EwE version 6.3+, Ecospace derives cell suitability from species’ responses to local environmental conditions (depth, temperature, salinity, oxygen, pH, …) and/or habitat use.
Ecospace is now an integrated food-web / species envelope model
Functional groups respond to (changing) environmental conditions
Each group has unique preferences for these conditions
Dynamic habitat model predicts how productive individual cells are for each species
Adapted from Christensen et al. 2014, Ecosystems
Ecospace niche modelling
Niche priors
SDM results
Original Ecospace(habitat affinities)
New Ecospace(environmental prefs.)
Combining hypotheses
Ecospace niche modelling
Case study 1: protection
Temporal resolution Vertical integration
Parameter Original unit Annual
Monthly Surface Surface 150m
Bottom Total Column
Phytoplankton biomass mmolN/m2 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Zooplankton biomass mmolN/m2 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Chlorophyll-a biomass mmolN/m2 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
PP mmolN/m2 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Oxygen mg/L Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Salinity PSU Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Temperature °C Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Currents m/s Yes Yes Yes Yes
Models
Drivers
Coll et al. 2019, Safenet
Case study 1: protection
h)
i) j)
g)
a) b)
c) d)
Protection scenarios Many, many simulations
Summaries
Case study 2: Link BH-SDM and Ecospace
Use Bayesian-HSDM model and Ecospace-HFCM to estimate and predict the occurrence and biomass distribution of 5 demersal fish species
Explored the complementarity of both approaches, aside from their applicability as independent techniques
Explored how to use Bayesian SDM models to incorporate uncertainty into the FWM
Merluccius merluccius Lophius piscatoriusLophius budegassa
Mullus barbatusMullus surmuletus Study area: 4,000 km2
Coll et al. 2019. EcoMod
Case study 2: Link BH-SDM and Ecospace
Path 1
Path 2
a) b)
c) d)
Pelagic Demersal
Tro
ph
ic L
evel
Correlations with data
Coll et al. 2019. EcoMod
The internal data model of Ecospace was hard to access – almostimpossible to vary input maps over time
Changing environmental conditions could not be included in spatial temporal analysis
A new spatial-temporal framework was developed:Can drive most Ecospace input layers Can build Ecospace maps from external GIS files Produces Ecospace results as GIS files
Is connected to the habitat capacity model (!)
Spatial temporal data framework
Steenbeek et al. 2013, EcoMod.
Spatial temporal data framework
Steenbeek et al. 2013, EcoMod.
Spatial temporal data framework
Steenbeek et al. 2013, EcoMod.
STDF can provide Ecospace with temporal-spatial variation in:
Environmental drivers (SST, Salinity, Oxygen, …)
Primary productivity
Currents
Species niches
Biomass distributions
Contaminants
Fishing cost
Habitats
Migration routes
MPA placements
Spatial temporal data framework
Case study: Adriatic productivity
Steenbeek et al. 2013, EcoMod.
Extensions to EwEPlug-ins and new tools
Ecological indicators communicate historical and future changes in ecosystems
Functional group taxonomic composition and species traits
EcoIND plug-in calculates standardized ecological indicators from Ecopath, Ecosim, Ecospace, and Monte Carlo
Indicators include biomass, catch, trophic level, size, and species
Highly extensible (MSFD, others)
EcoIND extends EwE into biodiversity and conservation-based frameworks, and management applications
Ecological indicators plug-in
Coll and Steenbeek 2017, EMS
Ecological indicators application
Coll and Steenbeek 2017, EMS
Ecosampler plug-in
Simple engine that facilitates analysing input parameter uncertainty on potentially any EwE output.
Record modeStore alternate mass-balanced parameter sets, ‘samples’, from EwE built-in Monte Carlo routines
Replay modeRun samples through Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace
Defines unique output path for each sample
Sample parameter set is written to file
All triggered and auto-saving EwE components and plug-ins write outputs for a sample
Statistical analysis must be performed outside EwE
Steenbeek et al. 2018, SoftwareX
Ecosampler plug-in
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Time (yr)
Bio
ma
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(t/k
m2)
(f) Rays and skates
(e) Earlier alien demersal
fishes
p-value = 0.02
rho = 0.59
p-value < 0.001
rho = 0.99
(a) Alien crabs (b) Goatfishes
(c) Hake
(d) Rocky fishes
p-value < 0.01
rho = -0.62
p-value < 0.001
rho = -0.84
p-value < 0.001
rho = 0.96p-value < 0.001
rho = 0.82
Steenbeek et al. 2018, SoftwareX
Other ways to use EwE
Other ways to use EwE
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
EwE is available in a number of programming languages to cater to different audiences and modelling environments
This story focuses on the .NET version – the EwE mothership
Other ways to use EwE
Modular structure of EwE version 6
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
Other ways to use EwE
Plug-ins
Independently of EwE
Auto-loaded on start-up
Included in program flow
Replace or extend computations and user interface
Perform external analysis and do other really neat things!
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
Other ways to use EwE
A few plug-ins
Aquamaps response fn. import EII, JRC
Ecological indicators IRD, ICM, EII
Ecotroph analysis Agrocampus Ouest
WoRMS taxon search EII
Multi-Sim DFO
Network analysis SAMS
Result extractor CEFAS
Value Chain UBC
MPA Dynamics UBC
Transect extractions EII, CEFAS
CEFAS MSE CEFASSteenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
Other ways to use EwE
Standard use: EwE6 desktop interface
Other ways to use EwE
Power use through EwE source code. Batch runs, large scale analysis, integrated modelling, sky := limit;
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
Other ways to use EwE
Distributed computing,model interoperability
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
OceanViz – modelling for policy
Other ways to use EwE
Steenbeek et al. 2016, EcoMod
MSP Challenge 2050
A serious game to educate stakeholders about the MSP process
Up to 80 players, in teams, make spatial plans for their share of a marine region, trying to obtain set goals
Plans are designed in a GIS-like interface
Plans can cover shipping, fishing, dredging, recreation, mineral extraction (oil and gas), blue energy (offshore wind, tidal, wave), aquaculture (fish farming), deep sea mining, etc
Planning requires information discovery, negotiations with affected neighbours, etc.
During simulation phases, plans are put into action, where Ecospace calculates how the ecosystem is affected by plans
http://mspchallenge.info.
MSP Challenge 2050
http://mspchallenge.info.
MSP Challenge 2050
1. Game users design plans for a marine area
2. The MSP server aggregates these plans
3. The plans are translated into environmental pressures
4. Pressures influence the ecology of the embedded Ecospace model
5. Indicators (biomass, catch, diversity) are returned to game users
Steenbeek et al. (in review)
Action Pressures Ecological impact
MSP Challenge 2050
Steenbeek et al. (in review)
MSP Challenge 2050
Full-day test sessions with stakeholders – Firth of Clyde / SIMCELT
User comments:
“It has endless potential for all sorts of audiences and is an exciting innovation.”
“This would be a great tool for actual consultations and responses.”
“Easy to use once I learned commands; useful to non-planners and users not familiar with GIS (ARC10.1) programs.”
“The balance between realism and entertainment makes it a fantastic educational tool.”
Reprinted from J. Bentley
The EwE ecosystemKeeping a scientific software alive and healthy
The EwE ecosystem
EwE is a community-driven software without core funding
Ideas and funding from users translate to new features
New features are released with EwE once published
Software is free and open-source
Projects can purchase a professional license with tech. support
Ecopath R&D Consortium: improving and applying EwE
High quality training courses
Pursuing and executing projects
Release new versions of EwE – EwE 6.6 coming soon!
Organizing development, user support, co-development
Open for any institute to join
The EwE ecosystem
EwE thus relies on active users to continue!
Online user community
Support contracts for using EwE
Co-development ideas and funding
Training courses
Consortium membership
http://ecopath.org/consortium
http://facebook.com/eweconsortium
http://www.ecopath35.org
Thank [email protected]