Reduction potential and costs based on pthe IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR model
Michel den El enMichel den Elzen
Outline presentation
1. Methodology2. Analysis• Low stabilisation scenarios• Low stabilisation scenarios• Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental Outlook)3. Conclusions
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Part of integrated IMAGE model to develop climate mitigation scenarios Vaclimate mitigation scenarios an Vuuren et1 Baseline and t al, 2007, Sta
1.Baseline and MACs
abilising gre2. Global emission eenhouse ga
pathway, regional targets and costs
as concentra3. Energy and ations, Clim
a
3. Energy and land use changes
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atic Change
Regions
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Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves de
Energy CO2 emissions from energy models TIMER and POLES ti t h l i l i t i ti d
en Elzen et a
accounting technological improvements, energy inertia and learning effectsMany sectors and mitigation options (inc. CCS, renewables)
al., 2007, Muly g p ( , )
Non-CO2 emissions based on extended EMF non-CO2 MAC curves
ti-gas emiss
accounting technological improvements and removal of implementation barriers
Avoiding deforestation based on MAC curves of GCOMAP
sion envelopAvoiding deforestation based on MAC curves of GCOMAP model (LBNL), IIASA DIMA forest sector model Reforestation MAC based on IMAGE runs
pes, Global E
accounting difference in productivity between existing vegetation and new forests (at grid-level).
Environment
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tal Change
Path Dependency of MAC curves de
Costs vary depending on what happened in previous yearsITC Induced Technological Change
en Elzen et a
ITC – Induced Technological ChangeInertia in energy system – lifetimes times for power plants etc
Using static MACs does not capture this
al., 2007, MulUsing static MACs does not capture this
But FAIR tries to take into account by interpolating between 3 “standard” MAC curves, based on 3 “standard” historical price
ti-gas emiss, p
paths
$/ MAC 2: linear price pathMACCs construction in 2050
sion envelop
$/
tCO2e MAC 1: cubic
price path
MAC 2: linear price pathMACCs construction in 2050
70%80%90%
100%
pes, Global E
MAC 3:
cube
root 30%40%50%60%70%
$/tC Linear
Cubic (3)
Environment
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price
path0%10%20%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cube root
tal Change
Methodology Abatement costs model Va
Abatement costs include direct costs for climate policy, but do not
an Vuuren et
include: macro-economic effects, gains of ancillary benefits and cost/gains of changes fuel tradeusing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves and calculating
t al, 2007, Stausing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves and calculating demand & supply curvesDiscount rate of 5%, but energy system also 10% (investments
abilising greDiscount rate of 5%, but energy system also 10% (investments made by private parties)Include Transaction costs and CDM accessibility
eenhouse ga
Emission tradingfull trading in case regions participate
as concentra
limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
ations, Clim
a
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atic Change
Baseline – developments without Climate PolicyVa
40 B2 Baseline and other baselines
an Vuuren et
30
q)
B2 Baseline and other baselines
IMAGE 2 3 B2
Central case B2:Population 2100: 9 billion ( )
t al, 2007, Sta
20
ions
(GtC
-eq IMAGE 2.3 B2
IMAGE 2.3 A1b IMAGE 2.3 B1
(UN medium)
GDP growth: 2% per year
abilising gre
10Emis
s
Grey area indicates EMF21 range
GDP growth: 2% per year
Energy: near IEA until 2030,
eenhouse ga
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
gy ,conventional development after 2030
as concentraations, Clim
a
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atic Change
Pathways for stabilisation at 450,550 and 650 ppm CO2-equivalent deequivalent
1.61.61.6Relative CO2-eq emisions(incl. LUCF CO2)
1.6
index(1990=1)
1.61.61.6Relative CO2-eq emisions(incl. LUCF CO2)
1.6
index(1990=1)
en Elzen et a1.61.6
1.4
1.61.6
1.4
al., 2007, Mul+35%
1
1.2
1
1.2
ti-gas emiss
+20%
0 6
0.8 650
0 6
0.8 650
sion envelop
-5%
-35%
0.4
0.6
450
550
0.4
0.6
450
550
pes, Global E
019900199000
0.2
019900199000
0.2
Environment
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1990199019901990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090time(years)
1990199019901990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090time(years)
tal Change
Global abatement costs for meeting 450ppm increase up to 2% of world GDP Vaincrease up to 2% of world GDP
800650 CO2 eq
2.5
P 650 CO2 eqCarbon tax Abatement costs (%GDP)
an Vuuren et
500600700
/tC-e
q)
650 CO2-eq550 CO2-eq450 CO2-eq
1 5
2.0
ts (%
GD
P 650 CO2-eq550 CO2-eq450 CO2-eq
t al, 2007, Sta
300400500
bon
tax
($
1.0
1.5
atio
ns c
ost abilising gre
0100200C
arb
0 0
0.5
Miti
iga eenhouse ga0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 20900.0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
as concentra
Carbon taxes in the order of 200 (650) to 600-800 (450) $/tCAbatement costs as % of GDP vary over time – and peak around 2030-2050
ations, Clim
a
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2030 2050 atic Change
Major changes in the global energy system are required to meet 450ppm Varequired to meet 450ppm
1400
1600
1400
1600
450 ppm CO2-eqBaseline
an Vuuren et
1000
1200
1400
1000
1200
1400
BioRenew
Nuclear
Nuclear
t al, 2007, Sta
600
800
1000
nerg
y us
e (E
J)
600
800
Ene
rgy
use
(EJ)
NGas
BioBio Renew
NGas+CCS
abilising gre
200
400
E
200
400
E
Oil
Coal OilNGas
Bio
Coal+CCS
eenhouse ga
0 0Coal
as concentra
E i b li i i i i
Nuclear
Renewables
Biofuels + CCS
Natural gas+CCS
Oil+CCS
Coal+CCS
Biofuels
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
ations, Clim
a
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Energy use in baseline vs. mitigation scenario
atic Change
Energy efficiency improvements, bio-energy and CCS contribute the most in the reductions vaCCS contribute the most in the reductions
25 Sinks/avoided defor
Contributions of reduction measures
an Vuuren et
20q)
avoided defor. Non-CO2
Fuel switch CCSBio energy
baseline
al, 2007, Sta
15
s (G
tC-e
q Bio-energy Solar, wind, nuclear Energy efficiency
abilising gre
5
10 450 ppmstabilization
Emis
sion
s eenhouse ga
0
5E s concentra
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Main options short term: non-CO2, fuel switch and efficiencyM i i l CCS Bi f l bl & l
tions, Clim
a
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Main options long term: CCS; Biofuels, renewables & nuclear
atic Change
Meeting 450ppm also leads to major changes in land use, i.e. bio-energy and C-plantations valand use, i.e. bio energy and C plantations an Vuuren et al, 2007, Staabilising greeenhouse ga
A i lt Bi
450 ppm CO2-eq
s concentra
Forests
D t
AgricultureIceTundra Ext. grasslandGrass
Bio-energyC-plantation
L d tt i 450 i i 2100
tions, Clim
a
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Desert Land use pattern in 450 ppm scenario in 2100
atic Change
Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental Outlook)
Bakkes eOutlook) et al, 2008, B
450 ppm reduce emission in order to stay within 2oC with a 50% probability
Background
with a 50% probability CC OECD Increasing carbon tax in OECD only (2008) CC Global Increasing carbon tax in al countries (2008) report to the
CC global (phased)
Increasing carbon tax, all countries (but phased): OECD 2008; BRIC 2020; Rest of World 2030 e O
ECD
Env
World 2030 CC global (delayed)
Increasing tax, but all countries starting in 2020
Starting at 25 US$/tCO2, increasing with 2.4%/yr (Social C t f C b (SCC) i IPCC’ 4th A t R t)
ironmental O
Cost of Carbon (SCC) in IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report)
Outlook to 2
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030, MN
P
Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental Outlook)
Bakkes eOutlook) et al, 2008, BB
ackground report to thee OEC
D Env
The difference in implementation in 2008 and 2020 corresponds
ironmental OThe difference in implementation in 2008 and 2020 corresponds
more or less to stabilization at 550 and 650 ppm CO2-eq. No carbon tax scenario meets 2 degree
Outlook to 2
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No carbon tax scenario meets 2 degree 030, MN
P
Comparable effort analysis: Mitigation reduction potential & Costs for 0, 60 and 150US$/tCO2 D
epotential & Costs for 0, 60 and 150US$/tCO2
Reduction compared to 1990 emissions in 2020 (%)50
en Elzen et a
01020304050
Equal MAC (0US$)Equal MAC (60US$)Equal MAC (150US$)
al, 2008, Exp
-50-40-30-20-10
0 loring comp
-70-6050
Canada USA EU RussianFederation
Japan Oceania Ukraineregion
Annex I
parable post-
Tax levels corresponds to baseline, and 20% and 30% Annex I reduction scenario
-2012 effortsreduction scenarioNo emissions trading
s, MN
P repor
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rt
Comparable effort analysis: reductions for Annex I countries D
ecountries
-reduction comp. 1990 level
en Elzen et aal, 2008, Exploring compparable post--2012 efforts
reductions dependent on the assumed Marginal Abatement Costs
s, MN
P repor
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curves
rt
Conclusions
Stabilizing GHG concentration at low levels (about 450 ppm CO2 ) i d t t 2 d t t t h i ll f iblCO2-eq) in order to meet 2 degree target technically feasible possible with ‘known techniques’P tf li f ti d d b t ti l t ib ti CCS dPortfolio of options needed: substantial contribution CCS and efficiency. Multi-gas approach. Abatement costs for 450 ppm are in the order of a few percentAbatement-costs for 450 ppm are in the order of a few percent of world GDP, strongly depending on baseline developments
E l ti i ti f l itti t i i d d fEarly participation of large emitting countries is needed for meeting the low stabilisation levels
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Thank you for your attentiony y
Report (www.mnp.nl¥en):den Elzen, M.G.J, Höhne, N., van Vliet, J. and Ellerman, C., 2008. Exploring comparable post-2012 efforts for Annex I countries.Bakkes et al, 2008, Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
Paper:van Vuuren D P den Elzen M G J Eickhout B Lucas P Lvan Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P.L., Strengers, B.J., 2007. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Assessment of different strategies and costs using an integrated assessment framework Climatic Change 81: 119 159assessment framework. Climatic Change, 81: 119-159.Contact: [email protected]
This research was performed with the support of the Dutch Ministry of p pp yHousing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM)
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Back-up slides: for informationBack up slides: for information
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Publications (www.mnp.nl¥fair):
den Elzen, M.G.J. and Höhne, N.: 2008, 'Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilisation targets', Cli ti Ch i htt //d d i /10 1007/ 10584 008 9484Climatic Change, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9484-z.den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N. and Moltmann, S.: 2008a, 'The Triptych approach revisited: a staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation', Energy Policy 36 (3): 1107 11241107-1124.den Elzen, M.G.J. and Lucas, P., 2005. The FAIR model: a tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of climate regimes. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 10(2): 115-134.den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P. and van Vuuren, D.P.: 2008c, 'Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations', Climatic change 90 (3): 243–268den Elzen, M.G.J., Meinshausen, M. and van Vuuren, D.P., 2007. Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase. Global Environmental Change, 17: 260–280.Lucas, P., van Vuuren, D.P., Olivier, J.A. and den Elzen, M.G.J.: 2007, 'Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases', Environmental Science & Policy
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p g g y10 (2): 85-103.van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P.L., Strengers, B.J., 2007. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Assessment of different strategies and
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FAIR 2.0 model: to assess regional emissions andcosts for post-2012 mitigation regimes d
DATASETS
costs for post-2012 mitigation regimes
CLIMATE MODEL
den Elzen, LuDATASETS
Historicalemissions
Climate assessmentmodel
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate attributionmodel
ucas, 2005, T
Multi-stageEMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
BrazilianBaselinescenario
1. Global emission pathway
The FAIR
2 m
Per capita C
Multi-stageapproach
South-North di l l
BrazilianProposal
Triptych h
scenario
Emissions
model, Enviro
2. Regional emissions targets before emissions trading
Convergence dialogue proposal approachpathways
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Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODELMACs
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3. Regional GHG emissions after trade Abatement costs & permit price
ssessment
Objective Abatement costs model
To calculate abatement costs and permit price (multi-gas)T l l t th b d ll d fi i l fl th
den Elz
To calculate the buyers and sellers and financial flows on the international permit marketTo distribute the global reduction objective over the different
zen, Lucas aTo distribute the global reduction objective over the different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms
nd van Vuurren, 2005, Abbatem
ent cossts, Energy P
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Policy
Choice of MAC curves matters: POLES gives lower prices till 2035-2040, and higher later
Equilibrium Carbon Price [2005US$/tCO2]250
p , g
200
250
POLES MAC CO2450
150
200 POLES MAC CO2TIMER MAC CO2
100
450
550
50
550
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Global costs are manageable for POLES and TIMER MAC curves
Global costs as %-GDP [2005US$]
2.0
POLES MAC CO21.5
POLES MAC CO2TIMER MAC CO2 450
4501.0
450
550
0.5550550
0.02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050