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REFUGEES WELCOME?
CONTESTATION OVER A EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM
Johannes Müller GómezUniversité de Montréal & Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Birte WindheuserUniversität zu Köln
“Migration, Identity and Politics in Europe”Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, 1 March 2019
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National• Border closures • Introduction of daily limits
International• EU-Turkey agreement
European• Establishment of hotspots• Decision on relocating 160,000 refugees• Strengthening of FRONTEX• Proposal for a permanent distribution mechanism
Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 2
APPROACHES TO SOLVE THE “REFUGEE CRISIS”
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 3
MEMBER STATES‘ POSITIONS ON A PERMANENT REFUGEE DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM (RDM) 2015-2016
In favour of an RDMMostly but not fully in favour ofan RDMRather in favourof an RDMRather against an RDMMostly against an RDMAgainst an RDM
Map produced via stepmap.com 2017
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Why do member states reject the establishment of a permanent European refugee distribution mechanism (RDM)?
Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 4
RESEARCH QUESTION
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H1: Member states that are not affected by the refugee crisis reject a European distribution mechanism.
H2: Member states with a weak economy reject a European distribution mechanism.
H3: Member states with a high degree of EU-scepticism reject a European distribution mechanism.
H4: Member states with a low share of Muslim population reject a European distribution mechanism.
H5: Member states with a low degree of EU integration reject a European distribution mechanism
Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 5
HYPOTHESES
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 6
QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
à QCA useful “for analyzing complex causation, defined as a situation in which an outcome may follow from several different combinations of causal conditions”*à Here: Fuzzy set QCA
*Source: Ragin, Charles C. (2008): Redesigning Social Inquiry. Fuzzy Sets and Beyond, London: University of Chicago Press, p.23.
Rejection of a distributionmechanism
Economicsituation
EU-scepticism
Impact of„refugee crisis“
Muslim population
Degree of EU integration
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 7
NECESSARY CONDITION
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 8
SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS
But: France, UK, Finland and Ireland do not fit in any of these solution terms
Degree of EU integration Small Muslim population
Not affected by therefugee crisisWeak economy*
*
* * Rejec
tion
ofRD
M*Small Muslim population Not affected by
the refugee crisisLow degree of
integration *Low degree of
integrationSmall Muslim population Weak economy
*
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 9
SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS
Supp
ort o
fRD
M
Degree of EU integration
Muslim population (+)
Refugees (+)*
* *
*Muslim population (+)
Refugees (+)
Integration (+)
Economy (+)
EU-scepticism (-)
EU-scepticism (-)
Refugees (+)
*
*
*
*
*
*
But: Bulgaria, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands do not fit in any of these solution terms
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 10
CASE STUDIESFrance:
§ Not affected § Terrorist attacks § Front national
UK:§ Not affected § EU-sceptic atmosphere§ Muslim population not with Arabic but Pakistani and Bangladeshi background§ Opt-in-option
Finland:§ Highly affected, but split government: Centre Party vs. Finns Party
Hungary:§ National solution§ Perception of the refugee crisis as a ’German problem’
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Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 11
CONCLUDING REMARKS
§ Not being affected neither sufficient nor necessary for rejection of RDM
§ Striking relevance of Muslim population in the member states for rejection of RDM – almost a necessary condition§ Particularly in combination with
a) Low degree of integrationb) Weak economy c) Low degree to which the member state is affected
§ Support of RDM: Number of refugees as a decisive factor, but only in combination, especially with a low share of Muslim population and a low degree of EU-skepticism § Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal: Act of solidarity?
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MERCI
Corresponding author:
Johannes Müller Gómez
Université de Montréal & LMU Munich
johannes.muller.gomez [at] umontreal.ca