![Page 1: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Regional Routing Model Review:
C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis
Frank SouthworthOak Ridge National LaboratoryOak Ridge, TN 37831
NETS Program ReviewDecember 12, 2005Washington DC
![Page 2: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Calibration, Forecasting & Scenario Analysis
County/Port Based Mode/Route/Market Choice Model(s)*
Calibration
Forecast / Scenario Based Commodity Flows, Costs and Benefits
Forecasting,Scenario Analysis
* = Simultaneous or nested mode and destination choice linked to capacity constrained route assignment
Base Case Computed Flows, Costs (and Benefits)
County/Port Based Commodity Production /Consumption Forecasts
NETS Tier 1 Regional Economic Activity Forecasts/ Scenarios
Changes in Demands
Fuel, labor, I&M costs by vehicle /vessel types (C,M,V) (Data)
Changes to Network Conditions (Capacities) and Mode/Route Costs
Network Changes
Mode Specific Rate Estimation Models
Transit times, distances
dollar/ton shipment rates
Changes in Supply
![Page 3: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Estimate Commodity Production (O) & Consumption (D) by Region
Connect Os and Ds to Estimate O-to-D Commodity Flows
Assign O-to-D Flows to Modes & Routes
Re-Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton
Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton
Re-Estimate O-to-D Flows
Iterate toConvergence
The Basic Flow and Cost Estimation Process
![Page 4: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Vak
)d( S XVZMinimize ak
akXV 0, ),(
+ m 1/ βm ( Xi jm ln Xi j
m) + m 1/ λm ( Xi jkm ln Xi j
km)
Prototype Regional Routing Model Formulation:
subject to:
Vak = ∑i ∑j ∑r δ i,j
akr X i j kr for all links, a, and modes k, in the
network
∑r X i j
rk = X i j k for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J
∑k X i j
k = X i j for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J
Vak ≥ 0
X i j kr ≥ 0
V = a link volumeX = an O-D flow volumeS = link transportation time orgeneralized cost
![Page 5: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Freight Destination Choice (Flows Modeling):
Xi jm = Oi
m Dj m F[ βm, ci j
m ] Aim Bj
m
Aim = 1/{j Bj
m Djm
F [ βm, c i j m ]} for all i
Bj m = 1/{i Ai
m Oim F [ βm, i j
m ]} for all j c
i j ( Xi jm di j
m } / i,j Xi jm = d * m
where
and
![Page 6: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Freight Mode Choice:
Xijkm = Xij
m *[exp(-θm ckm)/ ∑kεK(m) exp(-θm ckm)]
cijkm = α0 + α1 rij
km + α2 Sijkm + α3 vij
km
where (for example):
and,
c ijm = -(1/ λm ) ln {k exp (-λm c i j
km )}
(links mode and destination choice)
![Page 7: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Components of Freight Costs that Need Modeling:
Number of different “legs” to a journey
Shipper/receiver perceived costs per leg:
freight rate transit time service reliability
Congestion effects
i.e. congestion transit time and reliability direct plus indirect (i.e. rate) effects on costs
![Page 8: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
0 500 1000 1500 2000
S=
Tra
ve
l T
ime
(M
inu
tes
)
Traffic Volume (Vehicles/hour)
S = S0 * (1+ 0.15 (V/C)**4)
x =Kilotons/Year (in thousands)
CC/2
S=
Min
ute
s o
f D
ela
y/T
ow
k
S = k /((C/x) –
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
CC/2
k
–1)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Lock Congestion Function Highway Congestion Function
Sa = Sao * [ 1 + θ1* Va + θ2 *( Va / Capa)γ ]
“Generic” link congestion function for use in Toy Model:
Network Link Transit Time (Congestion) Functions
![Page 9: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Components of Freight Movement Costs
Freight Rates In-Transit Times Service Quality (Reliability)
Variable Operating Costs (Annualized)
Line-haul costsLoading/unloading costsEquipment utilization costs Commodity carrying costsAdministrative costs Shipment distance
Cargo type (commodity, weight, volume)Labor rateFuel price Carrier/operator type Equipment typeCompany type (private/for-hire; size)Contract type (duration)Facility type, Location,Operating licenses, fees and taxes
Capital Operating Costs
Generalized Transportation Costs (Shipper Perspective)
Level 1: (Statistical)
Level 2: (Engineering)
![Page 10: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10
1112
2313
14
16
15
1718
19
20
21
22
24
25
30
26
27
28
29
31
32
33
1
2
45
7
8
9
3 6
42
Port A
Port B
Port C
Lock a
Lock b Lock c
TruckRailInland WaterDeep Water
Traffic Centroids(10 in all)
41
34
40
35
39
3637
38
40 Network Nodes (44)
Key:
Links (110 in all):
44
43
![Page 11: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
1
2
3
4 5
6
7 8
9
![Page 12: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
$$
$
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ $
$
$ $
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ $
$
$
$
$
$$
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#44
42
41
40
3837
36
33
32
3130
29
27
26
25
24
2221
20
19
17
16
1514
13
12
10
9
87
6
54
3
2
1
R R M T o y N etwo rkPort A
Port B
Port C
F o re ig nP o rt
L o ck1
Lock 2L o ck 3
Rail
Rail
Rail
R iver 1
River 2
C oastline0 10 20 30
M iles
FIELD_9
200000 100000 50000Model Run # 1
Origin Mode Split = 36.7% water 63.3 % rail
![Page 13: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
$$
$
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ $
$
$ $
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ $
$
$
$
$
$$
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#44
42
41
40
3837
36
33
32
3130
29
27
26
25
24
2221
20
19
17
16
1514
13
12
10
9
87
6
54
3
2
1
R R M T o y N etwo rkPort A
Port B
Port C
Fore ignP ort
Lock1
Lock 2Lock 3
Rail
Rail
Rail
R iver 1
R iver 2
C oastline0 10 20 30
M iles
FLOW S
150000 75000 37500Model Run # 2
Origin Mode Split = 74.9% water 25.1% rail
![Page 14: Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515535355034685568b55e6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
An
nu
al T
on
s R
ecei
ved
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Destination Region
Destination Flow Comparisons
data input
model#1
model#2