Download - Result Update Mphasis 3QFY2013RU

7/30/2019 Result Update Mphasis 3QFY2013RU

1/13

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E Oct. (` cr) Cons. 3QFY13 2QFY13 % chg (qoq) 3QFY12 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1,540 1,405 9.6 1,355 13.6EBITDA 280 242 15.8 268 4.6

EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 17.2 97bp 19.7 (156)bp

Reported PAT 193 177 9.1 209 (7.7)Source: Company, Angel Research

For 3QFY2013, MphasiS numbers came broadly in line with our estimates. The

companys USD revenue got benefitted from Digital Risks acquisition, which

contributed US$43mn to revenues during the quarter. Revenues from the

HP channel declined by 4% qoq while revenues from the Direct channel

(organic basis) grew by 5% qoq. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Quarterly highlights: MphasiS reported a revenue of US$265mn, up 1% qoq.Organic revenue declined by 2.6% qoq led by further decline in revenues from the

HP channel. In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,540cr, up 9.6% qoq. The

consolidated EBITDA margin of MphasiS improved by 97bp qoq to 18.2%. This could

largely be attributed to INR depreciation (+70bp qoq benefit) and the companys

strategy to exit low margin businesses (+170bp qoq). Consequently, the PAT came in

at `193cr, up 9% qoq.

Outlook and valuation: MphasiS revenue has continuously been hurt due tosluggish performance of HP-enterprise services (ES) business. Also, traction in the

HP non-ES business is below the scale than initially expected by the Management.

Direct channel revenue growth is seeing some positive signs as the sequentialgrowth in organic direct channel business came despite the planned ramp-down

of certain public sector projects in India. The Management cited that the deal

pipeline in the Direct channel remains robust. We expect a 6% and 11% USD and

INR revenue CAGR for MphasiS over FY2012-15, considering that the business

from HP is sluggish and client budgets for the next year remain flat. On the

operating margin front, we see further pressure going ahead. This would be on

account of increase in sales and marketing investments in order to revive growth

in the Direct channel segment and to improve utilization. Improving utilization

would be an important lever to pull up margins of application as well as ITO

segments where utilization is already standing high at 80%+. Valuing the stock at

10x FY2015E EPS, the target price comes out to `435. Currently we maintain our

Neutral rating on the stock; any corporate event like buyout by HP or a stake saleby HP with substantial revenue guarantees could act as upside triggers.

Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E Oct. (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 5,098 5,358 5,868 6,826 7,373% chg 1.2 5.1 9.5 16.3 8.0

Net profit 822 792 772 861 911% chg (24.6) (3.6) (2.6) 11.6 5.8

EBITDA margin (%) 19.3 19.6 18.1 18.1 17.2

EPS (`) 39.2 37.7 35.8 41.1 43.5P/E (x) 10.7 11.1 11.7 10.2 9.7

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4

RoE (%) 21.1 18.0 15.7 15.2 14.0

RoCE (%) 19.5 18.7 17.5 17.7 15.9

EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 5.8 5.8 4.4 3.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of 29 August, 2013

NEUTRALCMP `420

Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Net debt (` cr) (1,780)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 60.5

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 27.3Indian Public / Others 8.7

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (8.7) 5.2 2.2

Mphasis (6.0) 13.9 (31.8)

10

18,401

5,409

MBFL.BO

513/335

17,046

IT

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

MPHL@IN

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

8,804

0.5

Ankita Somani022-39357800 Ext: [email protected]

MphasiSPerformance highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | IT

August 30, 2013


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MphasiS| 3QFY2013 Result Update

August 30, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:3QFY2013 reported performance (Consolidated)

(` cr) 3QFY13 2QFY13 % chg (qoq) 3QFY12 % chg (yoy) 9MFY13 9MFY12 % chg (yoy)Net revenue 1,540 1,405 9.6 1,355 13.6 4,202 4,051 3.7Cost of revenue 1,114 1,025 8.6 960 16.0 3,044 2,905 4.8

Gross profit 426 380 12.1 396 7.8 1,158 1,147 1.0

SG&A expenses 145 127 14.1 128 13.3 404 366 10.5

EBITDA 280 242 15.8 268 4.6 755 781 (3.4)Dep. and amortization 37 35 4.3 42 (12.0) 109 134 (18.3)

EBIT 243 207 17.7 226 7.7 645 647 (0.3)

Interest income (10) (7) (4) (18) (13)

Other income 29 36 48 108 125

PBT 263 236 11.4 270 (2.7) 736 759 (3.1)

Income tax 70 59 18.2 61 14.2 182 176 3.4

PAT 193 177 9.1 209 (7.7) 554 583 (5.1)EPS 9.2 8.4 9.1 9.9 (7.8) 26.3 27.7 (5.2)

EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 17.2 97bp 19.7 (156)bp 18.0 19.3 (133)bpEBIT margin (%) 15.8 14.7 109bp 16.7 (87)bp 15.4 16.0 (63)bp

PAT margin (%) 12.3 12.2 3bp 14.9 (260)bp 13.2 14.4 (122)bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:3QFY2013: Actual vs Angel estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimate % Var.Net sales 1,540 1,525 1.0

EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 18.0 14bp

PAT 193 184 4.8


Inline performance

MphasiS reported consolidated revenues of US$265mn, up 1% qoq, aided by full

quarter consolidation of Digital Risk. Organic revenues declined by 2.6% qoq led

by further decline in revenues from the HP channel (4% qoq), while the organic

Direct channel revenues grew by 5% qoq after many quarters of flat/declining

growth. Digital Risk was consolidated for the full quarter (79 days in the last

quarter) and contributed ~US$43mn to revenues. In INR terms, the revenue came

in at `1,540cr, up 9.6% qoq.

During the quarter, the revenue (INR terms) from the Direct channel (organic basis)grew by 12.9% qoq while revenues from the HP channel declined by 0.7% qoq to

`644cr. Excluding the impact of INR depreciation, the revenue from the direct

channel (organic basis) grew by 5.2% qoq while revenues from the HP Channel

declined by 4.0% qoq, respectively. The emerging market business in the direct

channel (organic basis) witnessed a decline of 24% qoq as the company

consciously exited from loss making government contracts in India due to the fear

of high receivables. The HP non-ES portion of the business grew by 17.5% qoq to

`81cr.

Service vertical wise, services which belong to BPO business of the company posted

considerable growth due to revenues flowing from Digital Risk. Applicationdevelopment and application maintenance also reported growth on a sequential

basis while ITO service lines remained subdued during the quarter.


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August 30, 2013 4

MphasiS again reported flat pricing on a qoq basis for all its business segments

and the Management indicated that the companys MSAs with HP got renewed for

a year during the last quarter at the same price points as earlier.

Exhibit 5:Segment-wise pricing

Price movement (US$/hr) 3QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY12 % chg qoq % chg yoyAPOOnsite 66 66 66 0.0 0.0

Offshore 20 20 20 0.0 0.0

ITOOnsite 60 60 64 0.0 (6.3)

Offshore 21 21 21 0.0 0.0

BPOOffshore 6 6 6 0.0 0.0


Client metrics

MphasiS has been focusing on the Direct channel strategy to win clients. Overall,

the company added 16 new clients in 3QFY2013 - 10 in the Direct channel and 6

in the HP channel. Vertical wise, four clients were added in the banking and capital

market service industry; one in insurance; three in IT, communication and

entertainment; and the rest eight in emerging industries.

Exhibit 6:Client concentration

(` cr) 3QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY12 % chg qoq % chg yoyTop client revenue 140.4 128.0 126.5 9.7 11.0

% contribution 9 9 9

Top-5 clients revenue 452.5 426.8 435.6 6.0 3.9


Top-10 clients 686.5 611.8 618.3 12.2 11.0




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August 30, 2013 5

Exhibit 7:HP and non-HP client breakup

No. of clients 3QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY12 Addition (qoq) Addition (yoy)>US$1mn revenue 122 128 129 (6) (7)Direct channel 58 62 52 (4) 6HP channel 64 66 77 (2) (13)

>US$5mn revenue 44 42 41 2 3Direct channel 20 19 14 1 6

HP channel 24 23 27 1 (3)

>US$10mn revenue 22 22 24 0 (2)Direct channel 12 10 10 2 2

HP channel 10 12 14 (2) (4)

>US$20mn revenue 10 9 10 1 0Direct channel 7 6 5 1 2

HP channel 3 3 5 0 (2)


Hiring muted

During the quarter, MphasiS again recorded a net addition of 149 employees in its

overall employee base. Headcount of the application services business declined by

54 employees to 11,670 while headcount of the ITO and BPO business witnessed

an addition of 66 and 110 employees, taking their total employee base to 6,883and 18,932, respectively. The BPO business witnessed an addition of 196

employees onsite, purely because of Digital Risk. The Management indicated that

the company would hire in line with the demand environment although there are

no plans of future hiring as of yet.

Exhibit 8:Employee metrics

No. of employees 3QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY12 Net add.(qoq) Net add.(yoy)Application services 11,670 11,724 12,727 (54) (1,057)

Onsite 2,435 2,398 2,441 37 (6)

Offshore 9,235 9,326 10,286 (91) (1,051)

ITO services 6,883 6,817 7,151 66 (268)Onsite 269 280 307 (11) (38)

Offshore 6,614 6,537 6,844 77 (230)

BPO services 18,932 18,822 16,354 110 2,578

Onsite 1,959 1,763 101 196 1,858

Offshore 16,973 17,059 16,253 (86) 720

Sales and marketing 334 350 347 (16) (13)

General and administration 1,144 1,101 1,058 43 86

Total 38,963 38,814 37,637 149 1,326Source: Company, Angel Research


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August 30, 2013 6

EBITDA margin enhances

The consolidated EBITDA margin of MphasiS grew by 97bp qoq to 18.2% despite

wage hikes (7% offshore, 3% onsite), led by Rupee depreciation. The company

gained 170bp qoq from exiting the low margin India business and 70 bp qoq from

INR depreciation. Offshore utilization of the application services business grew to

85% in 3QFY2013 from 84% in 2QFY2013, while onsite utilization declined to

93% from 94% in 2QFY2013. The blended utilization of the application services

business remained flat sequentially at 86%. In the ITO business, offshore utilization

increased to 91% from 89% in 2QFY2013, while onsite utilization remained flat on

a sequential basis at 95%.

Exhibit 9:Segment-wise utilization


Exhibit 10:Trend in operating margin


8285 84

8686

8587

86

90

91

70

66 67

6462

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13

(%)

Application services ITO services BPO servics

19.7 19.7

20.7

18.5

17.2

18.2

16.2

16.7

17.6

15.5

14.7

15.8

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13

(%)

EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%)


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August 30, 2013 7

Outlook and valuation

MphasiS revenue has been continuously hurt due to sluggish performance of HP-

enterprise services business. Also, traction in the HP non-ES business is below the

Managements initial expectation of US$90mn-100mn in FY2012 and is in the

range of US$50mn-60mn. The Management continues to guide towards sustained

weakness in the HP-ES business channel which constitutes the bulk of Mphasis HP

channel revenues.

Direct channel revenue growth is seeing some positive signs as the sequential

growth in organic direct channel business was despite the planned ramp-down of

certain public sector projects in India. Digital Risk revenues grew more than 8% qoq

and large deal signings could set the base for good growth in the upcoming

quarters. However, decline in HP channel continues unabated and will likely offset

the positive signs emerging from the rest of the business. The Management cited

that the deal pipeline in the Direct channel remains robust as its better than the

pipeline in the corresponding period of last year. We expect a 6% and 11% USD

and INR revenue CAGR respectively for MphasiS over FY2012-15, considering that

the business from HP is sluggish and client budgets for the next year remain flat.

On the operating margin front, we see further pressure on MphasiS margins going

ahead on account of 1) increase in sales and marketing investments to revive

growth in the Direct Channel, 2) lower margin profile of Digital Risk (10-11% EBIT

margin vs MphasiS EBIT margin at 16%+) and 3) utilization of application as well

as ITO standing high at 80%+. The stock is currently trading at 10.2x FY2014E

and 9.7x FY2015E EPS. Valuing it at 10x FY2015E EPS, the target price comes out

to `435. Currently we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock; any corporateevent like buyout by HP or a stake sale by HP with substantial revenue guaranteescould be upside triggers.Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E


0

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600

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(`)

Price 15x 12x 9x 6x 3x


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August 30, 2013 8

Exhibit 12:Change in estimates

FY2013 FY2014Parameter Earlier Revised Variation Earlier Revised Variation(` cr) estimates estimates (%) estimates estimates (%)Net revenue 5,875 5,868 (0.1) 6,827 6,826 (0.0)

EBITDA 1,117 1,064 (4.8) 1,330 1,236 (7.1)

PBT 1,054 1,025 (2.7) 1,202 1,180 (1.8)

Tax 252 253 0.1 324 319 (1.7)

PAT 801 772 (3.6) 880 861 (2.1)


Exhibit 13:Recommendation summary

Company Reco CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2015E FY2015E FY2012-15E FY2015E FY2015E(`) (`) (%) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) EV/Sales (%) RoE (%)

HCL Tech Accumulate 1,017 1070 5.2 22.6 13.7 27.1 1.7 23.7

Hexaware Neutral 129 - - 21.5 9.6 14.5 1.3 24.0

Infosys Neutral 3,109 - - 27.1 15.5 11.2 2.6 20.0

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 181 190 5.1 17.6 7.8 16.9 0.5 14.3

KPIT Cummins Buy 133 155 16.1 17.8 8.0 27.5 0.6 19.5

Mindtree Neutral 1,027 - - 20.7 9.2 27.5 1.0 21.2

MphasiS Neutral 420 - - 17.2 9.7 4.9 0.6 14.0NIIT Neutral 20 - - 9.1 3.7 (7.1) 0.0 11.9

Persistent Neutral 586 - - 23.8 10.3 17.1 0.9 16.2

TCS Neutral 1,946 - - 30.0 18.9 23.8 3.9 29.0

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,367 1,485 8.6 21.0 12.0 13.5 0.5 22.8

Wipro Neutral 474 - - 22.2 14.4 13.3 1.9 20.1


Company background

MphasiS is a mid-tier Indian IT company. MphasiS was acquired by BFL in 1999. In

2006, EDS acquired a majority stake in MphasiS and subsequently HP bought EDS

in May 2008, thereby making MphasiS an HP company. The company provides

application, infrastructure and BPO services to clients in the banking, capital

markets, insurance, telecommunication and manufacturing industries. MphasiS is

one of the largest BPO service providers in India, offering voice as well as

transaction-based services.


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August 30, 2013 9

Profit and Loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E Oct (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 5,098 5,358 5,868 6,826 7,373Cost of revenue 3,698 3,813 4,263 4,942 5,404% of net sales 72.5 71.2 72.7 72.4 73.3

Gross profit 1,400 1,544 1,605 1,884 1,968

% of net sales 27.5 28.8 27.3 27.6 26.7

Selling and mktg. expenses 232 287 305 375 405

% of net sales 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.5

General and admin. exp. 184 202 236 273 295

% of net sales 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0

Provision for doubtful debts - 4 - - -

EBITDA 985 1,051 1,064 1,236 1,268% of net sales 19.3 19.6 18.1 18.1 17.2

Dep. and amortization 155 175 151 177 192

EBIT 830 877 913 1,058 1,076

Interest income, net (2) (15) (18) - -

Other income, net 111 148 130 150 188

Forex gain 66 18 (1) (28) (16)

Profit before tax 1,005 1,028 1,025 1,180 1,248

Provision for tax 183 236 253 319 337

% of PBT 18.2 22.9 24.7 27.0 27.0

PAT 822 792 772 861 911EPS (`) 39.2 37.7 35.8 41.1 43.5


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August 30, 2013 10

Balance sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E Oct (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ELiabilitiesShare capital 210 210 210 210 210Reserves and surplus 3,678 4,186 4,699 5,462 6,275

ESOP outstanding 12 8 8 8 8

Total shareholders funds 3,900 4,405 4,918 5,681 6,494Secured loans 49 - - - -

Unsecured loans 243 269 269 269 269

Total debt 292 269 269 269 269Deferred tax liability 2 7 7 7 7

Trade payables 2 - - - -

Other long-term liabilities 41 7 7 7 7

Long term provisions 22 12 12 12 12

Total liabilities 4,258 4,701 5,213 5,977 6,790AssetsGross block - Fixed assets 1,135 1,152 1,402 1,627 1,852

Accumulated depreciation 850 904 1,055 1,233 1,424

Net block 286 248 347 395 428Capital work-in-progress 7 0 0 0 0

Goodwill 870 961 961 961 961

Long term loans and advances 470 372 412 452 492

Deferred tax asset 97 101 101 101 101

Other non-current assets 2 17 17 17 17

Current assetsDebtors and unbilled revenues 562 636 932 1,085 1,172

Cash and cash equivalents 275 412 722 911 1,113

Loans & advances 304 274 538 643 792

Current investments 1,776 2,519 2,166 2,734 3,339

Other current assets 764 599 824 763 702

Less:- current liabilities 775 849 1,118 1,285 1,417

Less:- provisions 379 590 690 800 910

Net current assets 2,528 3,000 3,374 4,050 4,790

Total assets 4,258 4,701 5,213 5,977 6,790


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August 30, 2013 11

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E Oct. (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EPre tax profit from operations 894 880 895 1,030 1,060

Depreciation 155 175 151 177 192Pre tax cash from operations 1,049 1,055 1,045 1,208 1,252

Other income/prior period ad 111 148 130 150 188

Net cash from operations 1,160 1,202 1,176 1,358 1,440

Tax (183) (236) (253) (319) (337)

Cash profits 977 967 923 1,039 1,103(Inc)/Dec in

Current assets (1,264) (621) (433) (764) (780)

Current liabilities 3 285 369 277 242

Net trade working capital (1,261) (335) (64) (486) (538)

Cashflow from operating actv. (284) 631 859 552 565(Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (677) (222) (250) (225) (225)

(Inc)/Dec in loans and advances 990 97 (40) (40) (40)

(Inc)/Dec in deferred tax liab. (20) 1 - - -

(Inc)/Dec in investments 63 (60) - - -

Cashflow from investing actv. 356 (184) (290) (265) (265)Inc/(Dec) in debt 247 (23) - - -

Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium (123) (189) (161) 0 0

Dividends 98 98 98 98 98

Cashflow from financing actv. 25 (310) (259) (98) (98)Cash generated/(utilized) 97 137 310 189 202

Cash at start of the year 178 275 412 722 911

Cash at end of the year 275 412 722 911 1,113


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August 30, 2013 12

Key ratios

Y/E Oct. FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 9.0 9.1 9.5 8.5 8.0

P/CEPS 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4

P/BVPS 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

EV/Sales 7.2 5.8 5.8 4.4 3.6

EV/EBITDA 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7

EV/Total assets

Per share data (`) 39.2 37.7 35.8 41.1 43.5EPS 46.6 46.1 44.0 49.6 52.6

Cash EPS 6.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Dividend 186 210 235 271 310

Book value

Dupont analysis 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2

Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 21.1 18.0 15.7 15.2 14.0

Operating ROE

Return ratios (%) 19.5 18.7 17.5 17.7 15.9RoCE (pre-tax) 31.5 29.7 29.3 29.0 25.5

Angel RoIC 21.1 18.0 15.7 15.2 14.0RoE

Turnover ratios (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Asset turnover (fixed assets) 65 58 58 58 58

Receivables days 17 60 60 60 60


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A 30 2013 13

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement MphasiS

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

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Download - Result Update Mphasis 3QFY2013RU

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