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March 2017
The Retail Sales Survey confirmed an uptick of annual retail sales in March 2017
compared to conditions one month earlier, indicated by an increase in Real Sales
Index (RSI) growth from 3.7% (yoy) in February 2017 to 4.2% (yoy). Stronger
retail sales primarily affected foods, with growth accelerating from 5.1% (yoy) to
7.1% (yoy) in the reporting period. In contrast, retailers reported slower growth
of non-food sales, declining from 1.8% (yoy) to 0.3% (yoy) over the same period.
Regionally, retailers in most of the cities surveyed confirmed an annual RSI
upswing, especially in Manado.
Respondents predicted the sales gains to persist into April 2017, with RSI growth
accelerating to 5.4% (yoy) on the previous period, driven by foods at 9.2% (yoy),
while growth of non-foods was predicted at just 0.1% (yoy).
The survey also revealed that retailers predicted an accumulation of inflationary
pressures on goods and services in June 2017, with the corresponding 3-month
Price Expectations Index (PEI) jumping from 140.4 to 149.7. In contrast, the
respondents expected milder inflationary pressures in September 2017, with the
6-month PEI observed to fall from 131.3 the month earlier to 130.3.
Real Sales in March 2017
Respondents confirmed an uptick of annual retail sales in March 2017
compared to conditions one month earlier, indicated by a Real Sales Index (RSI) of
204.0 as growth accelerated from 3.7% (yoy) in February 2017 to 4.2% (yoy) (Graphs
1 and 2). Stronger retail sales affected foods, with growth accelerating from 5.1%
(yoy) to 7.1% (yoy) in the reporting period. In contrast, retailers reported slower
growth of non-food sales, declining from 1.8% (yoy) to 0.3% (yoy) over the same
period, primarily on the back of information and communication equipment,
particularly electronics (audio/video), for which growth was confirmed to decelerate
from 6.1% (yoy) in February to 2.3% (yoy) in March 2017.
RETAIL SALES SURVEY
Respondents confirmed an uptick of annual retail sales
in March 2017.
Methodology The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI (Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 2009. The real index presented with 2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living Survey (SBH).
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Graph 1. Real Retail Sales Index
Graph 2. Real Sales Growth
According to the latest monthly data, the previous -4.9% (mtm) real sales
growth contraction posted in February 2017 to achieve positive 3.5% (mtm) in the
reporting period. The increase affected all commodity groups, especially other goods
(7.2%, mtm) in the form of clothing (4.1%, mtm).
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Graph 3. Real Sales Annual Growth of Food & Non Food Commodity Groups
Graph 4. Real Sales Annual Growth of Motor Vehicles Spareparts and Fuels Commodity Groups
Graph 5. Real Sales Annual Growth of Information & Comm. and Other Household
Equipment Commodity Groups
Graph 6. Real Sales Annual Growth of Cultural & Recreation and Other Goods Commodity Groups
Real Sales Expectations for April 2017
Respondents predicted the Real Sales Index (RSI) at 208.8 in April 2017, with
growth accelerating from 4.2% (yoy) the month earlier to 5.4% (yoy) (Graphs 1 and
2). Retailers expected food sales to increase from 7.1% (yoy) in March to 9.2% (yoy)
in April 2017, bucking the downward trend of non-food sales, sliding from 0.3%
(yoy) to 0.1% (yoy) over the same period. Respondents predicted the annual real sales
downturn to affect cultural and recreational goods, for which growth was expected
to moderate from 3.5% (yoy) to 0.5% (yoy) in the reporting period.
Nonetheless, retailers predicted weaker real sales growth in April 2017,
decelerating from 3.5% (mtm) to 2.3% (mtm). Weaker sales affected several
commodity groups, particularly automotive fuels (-1.2%, mtm), followed by
information and communication equipment (-0.9%, mtm).
Respondents predicted stronger real sales in
April 2017.
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Regional Real Sales
In March 2017, retailers in most of the cities surveyed confirmed an annual RSI
upswing, especially in Manado, where annual RSI growth improved considerably from
a -26.9% (yoy) contraction in February to record positive 10.8% (yoy) growth in
March 2017, followed by Jakarta, where growth was reported to accelerate from
21.0% (yoy) to 37.7% (yoy). In April 2017, however, retailers in Semarang reported
solid annual RSI gains, followed by Medan, increasing respectively from 1.7% (yoy)
and 0.6% (yoy) to 15.6% (yoy) and 6.4% (yoy) (Graph 7).
Graph 7. Performance of Real Sales Growth (YoY) in Jakarta, Manado, Semarang (incl Purwokerto) and Medan
Price Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months
Retailers predicted an accumulation of inflationary pressures on goods and
services in June 2017 due to increased public demand during the holy fasting month
of Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Accordingly, the corresponding 3-month Price
Expectations Index (PEI) jumped from 140.4 to 149.7 (Graph 8). Nevertheless, survey
respondents also expected milder inflationary pressures in September 2017, with the
6-month PEI observed to fall from 131.3 the month earlier to 130.3 (Graph 9).
In March 2017, retailers in Manado experienced the
strongest annual RSI upswing.
Retailers predicted an accumulation of
inflationary pressures on goods and services in
June 2017.
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Graph 8. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Months
Grafik 9. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months
Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months
Respondents predicted an upturn in retail sales during the next three months
(June 2017), evidenced by an increase in the 3-month Sales Expectations Index (SEI)
from 134.8 to 154.3. Retailers were upbeat on the seasonal spike in demand during
Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Conversely, retailers expected more muted real sales in
September 2017, reflected by a drop of 7.5 points in the 6-month SEI from 144.6 to
137.1 (Graph 10).
Graph 10. Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months
Respondents predicted a retail sales upturn in
June 2017.
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Appendix
Table 1. Real Retail Sales Index by Categories
Table 2. Growth (y-o-y) of Real Retail Sales Index
Table 3. Growth (m-t-m) of Real Retail Sales Index
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Table 4. Real Sales Index by City
Table 5. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City
Table 6. Monthly Growth (m-t-m) of Real Sales by City
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Table 7. Expectations for Prices and Sales