Download - Rethinking How We Get Around Sunnyvale
Rethinking
How We Get
Around:
Sunnyvale
Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD
11 September, 2014
Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo
What is the problem?
How did we get here?
Where is congestion from?
■ Cities have faced congestion for a centuries
– As cities succeed in attracting people from other places,
congestion occurs
– Congestion is an economic issue: demand > supply
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Silicon Valley Semiconductor Wafer
Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo
Manchester Murray’s Mills, 1831
Source: thehumanjourney.net
How have we dealt with congestion?
■ Western cities historically addressed traffic like sewage
– The first Western traffic engineers were sanitation engineers
– Gravity models atomistic travel demand models
– Fluid dynamics vehicle flow
■ Traffic engineering approaches were institutionalized
– Travel demand models to predict
– Design standards to help provide
– Metrics to measure performance
■ The institutions have been biased and incomplete
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What are transportation institutions?
1. Trip Generation
(pop & jobs by zone)
2. Trip Distribution
(gravity model)
3. Mode Split
(fn trip type, income…)
4. Route Assignment
(based on travel times)
4-STEP MODEL
What is the problem with predictions?
S1 Travel
time
(cost)
Q, Traffic Flow
(veh/hour)
Q1
T1
D1
Q2
T2
S2
T1b
INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND
What is the problem with predictions?
D1 S1
S2
Travel
time
(cost)
Q, Traffic Flow
(veh/hour)
D3
Q1 Q2 Q3
T1 T2
T1b
T3
INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND
+ INDUCED INVESTMENT
What are transportation institutions? HCM’s LOS
Level of Service
(LOS) Signalized Intersection Unsignalized Intersection
A ≤10 sec ≤10 sec
B 10-20 sec 10-15 sec
C 20-35 sec 15-25 sec
D 35-55 sec 25-35 sec
E 55-80 sec 35-50 sec
F ≥80 sec ≥50 sec
Traffic engineering: F A
A F Economics :
Photo: http://www.partyearth.com/boston/festivals/berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-
1/the-2013-berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/
Photo: John Welch, http://thettablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/boston-
may-22-noon-very-bright.html
What is the problem with performance measures?
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What are the results of this approach?
■ Roads are widened &
designed for fast traffic
■ Cities are still congested
■ Places are auto-oriented
■ Can’t go places without car
■ Injury, emissions, inactivity &
isolation
■ Worst impacts on the poor,
people with disabilities,
seniors & children
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 11 Source: FHWA
Is there another way to deal with transportation problems?
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Is there another way to predict demand?
Connected
Cities
Destinations in Silicon Valley
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■ Where are:
– jobs?
– services?
– people’s homes?
■ Are destinations
– connected to each
other?
– walkable?
– concentrated around
transit?
Adaptive Cities
e.g. Stockholm, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Singapore
Source: Robert Cervero, Transit Metropolis
Why do we need rapid transit?
■ Santa Clara County will add 600k residents, 300k jobs by 2040
■ Which mode do we want for additional trips on El Camino Real?
15 Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc.
Source: Cycling Promotion Fund
What is Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)?
■ Unique branding
■ Widely-spaced “station stops” with amenities
– realtime bus arrival information
■ Good ped/bike connections
■ Coordination with connecting services
■ Signal timing, signal priority, queue jump
■ Frequent service
■ Low-floor, multi-door boarding
■ Off-board fare collection
■ Dedicated lanes
F
ull B
RT
R
ap
id B
us
What are the BRT proposals & impacts for El Camino Real?
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Alphabet Soup and El Camino Real
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 18
■ Regional agencies (MTC/ABAG) developed Plan Bay Area
2013
– Plan Bay Area identified Priority Development Areas (PDAs),
including El Camino Real
■ VTA is pursuing a BRT project on El Camino Real
– Releasing DEIS, October 2014
– Presenting locally preferred alternative, February 2015
■ Grand Boulevard Initiative (GBI) recognized VTA’s El
Camino BRT project 2013
– Revitalize El Camino Real
– Create nodes for economic and housing opportunities
– Create walkable, bikeable,
transit-friendly Complete Street
Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 1: Do Nothing
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 19 Source: VTA 2014
VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 1: Do Nothing
■ Transit quality: speeds & on-time reliability decline
■ Transit ridership: grows with population and jobs
■ Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel
■ Safety: No improvements
■ Cost: $0 (capital) + $0.8 million (operating)
■ Farebox recovery: no change
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 20 Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 2: Mixed Flow
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 21 Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 3A: Do Nothing / Mixed Flow+
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 22 Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 3B: Mixed Flow+
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 23 Source: VTA 2014
VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 2: Mixed Flow
■ Transit quality: 9% faster than Do Nothing
■ Transit ridership: grows 4% faster than Do Nothing
■ Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel
■ Safety: Curb bulbouts shorten crossings at stations
■ Cost: Measure A (capital), $1.9 million saving (operating)
■ Farebox recovery: grows $0.9 million
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 24
Source:
VTA 2014
Alternative 4A: Partial Dedicated Lanes
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 25 Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 4B: Partial Dedicated Lanes
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 26 Source: VTA 2014
Alternative 4C: Full BRT
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 27 Source: VTA 2014
VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 4: Dedicated Lanes
■ Transit quality: 80% faster, frequent, reliable
■ Transit ridership: grows 23% faster than Do Nothing
■ Auto speed & capacity: 7% slower, route shifting in peak
■ Safety: Bike lanes, shorter & new signalized crossings
■ Funding: Msr A + $75M FTA (capital), $7M saving (operating)
■ Farebox recovery: up to $1.5 M
■
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 28
Source:
VTA 2014
What now?
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Where to now?
■ We all have an opportunity to participate in the production
of space and the future of El Camino Real
■ Participate in the planning process, talk with leaders and
people in your community
■ Consider the values with which we plan this space:
– Ecological sustainability?
– Social inclusion?
– Economic dynamism?
Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 30
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Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD
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San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 281-1544