A puzzled person looks at MOOCSOrmond Simpson
Visiting Fellow, Centre for Distance Education University of London
Previously Visiting Professor, Open Polytechnic of New ZealandPreviously Senior Lecturer in Institutional Research, Open
University
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RIDE 2013
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‘E-learning’ ?- a ‘category error’?
Gilbert Ryle 1900-76
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‘E-learning’ ?or
‘E-teaching’ ?
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“No teacher can ever be
certain that their
teaching will cause a
learner to learn”
- Ramsden (2003)Professor Paul
Ramsden
OU % graduation rates by year of entry
1971 -1981
1997 on
0
10
20
30
40
50
6053
22
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Beginning of introduction of e-teaching
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Household internet access (ONS)
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Completion rates for modules and MOOCS
Average first year full-time undergraduate completion rate
Average OU module completion rate(new students)
Average MOOC completion rate
85%
55%
6 - 9%
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Importance of learning motivation
“The best predictor of student retention is
motivation.
“…Most students drop out because of
reduced motivation”
(Anderson, San Diego, 2003)
Professor Edward Anderson
1942-2005
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The future of MOOCS?- will be decided by money
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How will MOOCS be paid for?
• Governments – why would they?
• Grants from other bodies – pump-priming?
• • Industry / commerce – for training?
• Institutional own funding?
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Institutions own funding
• ‘loss leaders’ to encourage recruitment?
• ‘Tasters’ for intending students to inform their course choice?
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From student fees
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But if students pay fees for a MOOC then:
• they will want a qualification with a suitable resale value
• A fair chance of getting that qualification
Student self-funding
Funding MOOCS
£ Fund student support
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Increases student
retention
Students willing to pay
more
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Cost benefits of retention
If F = students fee per year, S = institutional expenditure per student, V = total institutional overhead then if the number of students in year 1 is N1 and in year 2 is N2
Income Year 1 = N1F – (N1S + V) Income Year 2 = N2F – (N2S + V)
Reduction in income due to student dropout between years
= N1F – (N1S + V) – [N2F – (N2S + V)] = (N1 – N2)(F – S)
Then if there is a retention activity costing £P per student it will cost N1P. If that increases retention by n students so that N2 becomes N1 + n then the reduction in income is now:
[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)
So the reduction is itself reduced making a saving of
(N1 – N2)(F – S) – {[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)} = n(F – S)
For the retention activity to be self-supporting n(F – S) > N1P
Or np > 100P/(F – S) where np is the per cent increase in retention
For example P = £10 F = £2500, S = £1000 then np > 100x10/(2500-1000) = 0.67%
So if a retention activity costing £10 per student produces an increase in retention of more than 0.67% it will be self-supporting
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For a MOOC to make a profit it needs to ensure that:
1.25np > P or np > 0.8P
where P is the cost of a retention activity that increases retention by np % points
Thus for example if the institution expends £10 on an individual student it needs to get an increase in retention of 8% to break even.
