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: role of foresight in government :
Geci Karuri-Sebina, PhD Wits School of Governance | Southern Africa Node of Millennium Project
www.ForesightForDevelopment.org
13th Public Sector Innovation Conference | CPSI
Ekurhuleni, South Africa | 28 November 2019
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TAKE A MOMENT TO IMAGINE WHAT THE FUTURE WILL LOOK
LIKE… SA 2050
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Transformative
Disciplined
Continued Growth
Collapse
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The man who has no imagination
has no wings.
-Muhammad Ali
UN-VISIONINVITE AN ABUNDANCE OF POSSIBILITY
SHIFT : IMAGINE
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Where we are:
• Large and Young population
• Big and Small enterprises
• Urban and Rural
• Formal and Informal
• Local and Global
• Modern and Traditional
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A human economy that works for the 99%?
Together we need to create a new common sense,
and design an economy that benefits everyone, not
just the privileged few. A new human economy that
would create better and fairer societies where
workers would receive decent wages, women and
men would be treated equally, children would have
opportunities and no one would live in fear of the
cost of falling sick.
(Oxfam 2017)
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“Science, technology and innovation enabling inclusive
sustainable South African development in a changing world”
STI White Paper Objectives:
• Instil a culture of valuing STI, and integrate STI into government planning
and budgeting at the highest levels.
• Adopt a whole-of-government approach to innovation.
• Create an enabling and inclusive governance environment.
• Create a more innovation-enabling environment.
• Increase and transform NSI human capabilities.
• Expand and transform the research system.
• Expand and transform the institutional landscape.
• Increase funding and funding efficiencies.
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Kelvin Campbell | Chair and Founder, Smart Urbanism - London
Presentations: Smart Urbanism / Enabling Change / New Urban Models / Radical Incrementalist
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We have to think about the future now…
The
Country
we have
The
Country
we want
• Service delivery
• Dynamic population
• Politics
• Economy
• Climate Change
• 4iR / technological change
• … “VUCA”
Acting now for Redress
Acting now for
Now
Acting now for FUTURE
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• ThinkTools
• Systems Thinking
• Scenario Planning
• Horizon Scanning
• State of Futures Index
• Delphi
• Futures literacy
• Design Thinking
• Participatory tools
• Anticipation
• Using new
technologies…
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Foresight…
• Anticipatory Assumptions:
• Hope = desires, wishes, visions
• Think = available information, prediction, extrapolation
• Hierarchical
• Presumptive
• Real World
• Complex
• Emergent
• Heterarchical
• Unknowable
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Foresight…
…For Policymakers [and many practitioners],
there is no historical data
• Perceive the world as:
• Same / Different
• Good / Bad
• Normative / Realistic
• Fate / Deterministic
• Projection / Predication
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PLANNING(CONTINGENCY)
PREPARATION(OPTIMISATION)
INVENTION(NOVELTY)
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ECO
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www.sampnode.org.za
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Anticipation…
• foresight. The ability to anticipate and assess future events as well as
to strategize to avert future dangers and grasp future opportunities. A
person demonstrates foresight by being able to develop successful long-
term strategies and by being well prepared for likely contingencies.
• futuring. The act, art, or science of identifying and evaluating possible future events
• prediction. A statement that something will happen in the future
• forecast. A statement that something will probably happen in the future
• projection. A forecast is developed by assuming that a trend will continue into the future
20 http://www.wfs.org/dictionary
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Anticipation…
21 http://www.projectanticipation.org/
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i) Complication - systematic, integrated
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ii) Complex systems
23 http://forwardengagement.org/
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iii) Transformative change
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Think about your methods...
• We need to be future aware
• Be careful how we use the future
• We need to be user and context aware
• You may need different methods and tools for different:
• Purposes
• Stages
• Participants
• Audiences
• Anticipatory governance is not about a once-off.
• Foresight is a process, not an event
• Futures literacy is a capability
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DEPENDENT ON EXTERNAL
POWERS
POLLUTING VULNERABLE
GROWING DEBT & COSTS
ECONOMY DRIVEN
POLITICAL HIERARCHY
GOVERNING FOR TODAY
THIS ISNOT SMART
THIS IS SMART!
POWER & CONTROL
CORE VALUESDRIVEN
REACTIVE FEAR PROACTIVE (GUTS)
SELF SUFFICIENT
HEALTHY
QUALITY OF LIFE
SAFE
LOCAL VALUE SHARING SYSTEM
GOVERNING FOR TOMORROW
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Great things are done by a series of small things
brought together Vincent van Gogh