Russia’s Compatriot Policy in the NB8 Region
February 17, 2017, BDCOL
National Defence Academy of Latvia
Center for Security and Strategic Research
Dr.sc.pol. Ieva Berzina
National Defence Academy of Latvia
Research design
Novelty – the regional aspect
Research questions How Russia is using compatriot policy as an influence tool
in the NB8 region?
What is the possibility to use it for the purpose of sovereignty violations in the region?
Research methods Document analysis – resolutions of the 2015 and 2016
regional conferences of Russia’s compatriots of the Nordic Countries and the Baltic Sea
Content analysis of the Russia’s compatriot activities in the NB8 region as they have been reported in the World Coordination Council’s website
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Russian diaspora, 2015
The UN Population division Russian MFA
India: 15.6 million
Mexico: 12.3 million
Russia: 10.6 million
Source:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/
migration/data/estimates2/estimatesgraphs.shtml?0g
0
29.5 million
CIS: 17 million
The rest: 12.5 million
Latvia: 750 000
Source: The concept «Russian School Abroad»
http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/50643
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Who are Russia’s compatriots abroad?
Federal Law of the Russian Federation «On State Policy of the Russian Federation in relation to Compatriots Living Abroad», 1999:
Russian citizens
Russian ethnic minority
Persons living in the states of the former SU
Immigrants from the states of the former SU
Russian citizneship + self-identification
Latvia’s 750 000 Russia’s compatriots (2011 census):
Russian ethnic minority: 26.9 % (~ 557 000)
Russian language used in family: 37.2 % (~ 770 000) «Non-citizens»: 14.2 % (~295 000); 12 % (2015, Latvian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs)
Russian citizens: 34 091 (2011 census); 53 333 (2016, the Russian Embassy)
Feel belonging to Russia: 12 % (~ 218 000)
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Russia’s compatriots in the NB8
Divided societies
Latvia: 37.2 %
Estonia: 29.6 %
Ethnic minority
Lithuania: 5.8 %
Finland: 1.3 %
Norway, Iceland,
Sweden, Denmark:
< 1% Photo source: http://russkiymir.ru/en/news/218518/
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Coordination of Russia’s compatriot
activities
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Regional Coordination Councils
http://vksrs.com/koordinatsionnye-
sovety/map/?TYPE=REGION&AUTHOR=%D0%95%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0+%D0%AF%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B8
%D0%BD%D0%B0
The Baltic States included in the group «Northen Europe and the Baltic Sea
countries», not the «Near Abroad».
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Why regional coordination?
The problems of the compatriots in the Baltic States in the field of human rights, statelessness and manifestations of neo-Nazism are specific
But there are also common topics such as the preservation of the Russian language, work of Russian schools, the protection of compatriots’ rights, social issues and other
The regional format of Russia’s compatriot's work allows for the exchange of experiences and the promotion of the most interesting projects
Tatyana Dale (Norway), the chairman of the Regional Coordination Council
of the Northen Europe and the Baltic Sea countries:
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Compatriots’ activities in the NB8, 2016
Source: World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots Living Abroad, vksrs.com
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Areas of compatriots’ activities in the
NB8, 2016
Source: World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots Living Abroad, vksrs.com
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Conclusions
The regional approach provides a better understanding of how
Russia organize its compatriots’ activities on a global scale.
There is a gap between the scope of Russia’s compatriot
policy as it is officially declared and organized with its actual
effectiveness.
The most intense area of Russia’s compatriot activities in the
NB8 region is the promotion of Russia’s historic narratives
which mainly are related to the victory of the Soviet Union in the
World War II.
The most vulnerable in terms of the application of the „Russia’s
compatriots rights violation” narrative are Estonia and Latvia, but
the possibility that Russia might use this as a basis for
sovereignty violation is determined by its strategic interests
rather than by the discrimination of Russia’s compatriots because
it is a tool, not a strategic goal.
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Implications for the NB8 governments
Fight for hearts and minds rather than fight against Russia must be on the agenda, because the strength of Russia in current information warfare is determined by the fact that it purposefully and strongly promotes its vision of the world within Russia and outside its borders.
The NB8 governments must promote their positive agenda and values in a long-term, massive and easy to perceive manner as it is done by Russia.
The narratives used must be appealing to their societies and specific target audiences within them (including Russia’s compatriots). The campaigns need to communicate what do we stand for, they must unite and inspire people.
Thank you!