SaladoIndependentSchool District

Demographic Report

Spring 2017

Learn from Yesterday…Understand Today…Plan for the Future

Economic Conditions – Killeen-Temple MSA (April 2017)

3,966 new jobsNational rate 1.4%

Job Growth

2.4%153 more

sales than 2016

Year to DateHome Sales

1,498

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

UnemploymentRate

0.2%U.S. 4.1%

Texas 4.5%Killeen-Temple MSA 4.3%

Bell County 4.3%

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State Enrollment Growth

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2016/17 State Enrollment 5,359,127

Annual Enrollment Growth59,540

4,592,849

4,749,571

4,933,6175,075,840

5,232,065

5,359,127

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

5,400,000

5,600,000Total State Enrollment

73,68578,078

98,273

64,96276,085 67,522

59,540

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17

Enrollment Change

Region 12 & 13 Enrollment Growth

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• Salado ISD has added 512 students in the last 5 years

• This is a 5 year growth rate of 38%• Salado ISD is the fastest growing

district in Region 12, based upon percentage increase

Local Economic Development

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Sanctuary Development Bringing Retail, Entertainment Venue• The Village of Salado has approved a development agreement and rezoning for The

Sanctuary, but no plats have been submitted at this time• The Sanctuary is a 297 acre mixed-use development with plans including retail, office space,

a hotel, a 40,000 sq.ft. outdoor entertainment venue, multi-family and single family homes• The retail and commercial sites are along I-35 and FM 2268• The first phase of the development will feature retail sites and the entertainment venue, and

is expected to open in 2018, pending completion of the wastewater treatment plant• The competition of the $8.2 million wastewater treatment plant could bring additional

developer interest to Salado

Killeen-Temple MSA Housing MarketMultiple Listing Service – Year-Over-Year SFD Activity & Inventory

6Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center in partnership

with the Temple-Belton BoR

YTD Sales(2,012 YTD Sales April 2017)

3.1%

4.7%

3.6%

-4.5%

-12.2%

Number of Listings(2,082 April 2017)

Average Price($162,794 April 2017)

Median Price($149,950 April 2017)

Existing Home Inventory(3.6 Month’s Supply)

20.3%

32.0%

25.6%

17.4%

4.7%

2016 DistrictExisting Home

Sales

Salado ISD Home Sales2016 Home Sales by Price Point

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• Salado ISD had 310 home sales in 2016, and roughly 15% were of new homes• The median sale price in SISD for a new home in 2016 was $283,028• The median sale price in SISD for an existing home in 2016 was $245,500

Source: Bell County Deed Transactions

30.0%

42.5%

25.0%

2.5%

2016 District New Home Sales

<$150K$150K - $250K$250K-$350K$350K-$500K> $500K

Salado ISD District Overview

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• Within SISD there are roughly 55 homes currently under construction

• The district has roughly 310 lots available to build on

• Within Salado ISD, there are about 1,045 planned future lots

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Residential Activity Mill Creek Springs

• 309 total lots• 183 future lots• 110 occupied• 5 under construction• Groundwork underway on 27

lots delivering late 2017• Building 5-10 homes a year• Current student yield: 0.56

Residential Activity

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Salado Country Estates

• 9 total lots• 1 home occupied• 7 lots still available for sale• 4.5+ acre lots• Custom home building

Mill Creek Meadows

• 121 total lots• 109 future lots• 3 occupied• 2 under construction• Phase 1 with 12 lots

delivered and homebuilding• Groundwork underway on

Phase 2 with 49 lots, delivering fall 2017, pending final plat approval from the Village of Salado

Residential Activity

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Salado Mills

• 77 total lots• 68 future lots• 0 occupied• 7 under construction• Phase 1 with 9 frontage lots along

Stinnett Mill Rd delivered and homebuilding, first residents July

• Groundwork starting on Phase 2 with 46 lots by July 2017

• Phase 2 delivering early 2018• Building ~25 a year starting 2018• $320K - $400K

Mill Creek Courtyard

• 11 total lots• 5 occupied• 2 under construction• $270K - $280K

Residential Activity

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Creekside Meadow

• 19 total lots• 5 occupied• 9 VDL • 4 under construction• Building 5-10 homes a year• Lots ranging from $70K to $180K• Gated subdivision• Current student yield: 1.60

Rangers Promise

• 37 total lots• 23 occupied• 9 VDL• 5 under construction• Building 3-5 homes a year• Current student yield: 0.87

Residential Activity

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La Paloma

• 58 total lots• 40 occupied• 12 VDL • 6 under construction• Building 15-20 homes a year• Built out by mid 2018• $275K - $350K• Current student yield: 0.80

Chick Addition

• 40 total lots• 19 VDL • 6 under construction• 10 rental duplex units occupied• 5 single family homes occupied• 25 total occupied homes• $270K - $300K• Current student yield: 0.52

Residential Activity

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Amity Estates

• 197 total lots• 151 future lots• 37 VDL• 9 under construction• Phase 1 with 46 lots delivered and

homebuilding• Phase 2 under review with the

Village of Salado• First residents by September 2017

Residential Activity

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Sanctuary

• Future mixed-use development• 525 future SF lots• 350 future MF units• Future senior housing units, hotel,

office space and retail along I-35• Development hoping to start in late

2017 with retail space along I-35• Residential development likely

starting in 2-5 years• No plats/plans submitted to the

Village of Salado at this time• 15 year build out

525 future single family homes

Approx. 350 MF units planned

Residential Activity

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Windmill Estates

• 98 total acres • Approx. 100 future lots• No plats/plans submitted to the

Village of Salado at this time

Student Density

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• As of 2016-2017, Salado ISD currently has 254 students residing outside the district

• This represents roughly 14% of the total student body

• Within the district, 758 students reside west of I-35

• 761 students within the district reside east of I-35

Salado ISD Birth Rates

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Kindergarten Enrollment

Number of Births in 76571 ZIP Code

2006 (2011/12) 108 572007 (2012/13) 73 442008 (2013/14) 85 642009 (2014/15) 99 532010 (2015/16) 125 642011 (2016/17) 105 692012 (2017/18) 115* 652013 (2018/19) 131* 742014 (2019/20) 105* 59

*Projected Enrollment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006(2011-12)

2007(2012-13)

2008(2013-14)

2009(2014-15)

2010(2015-16)

2011(2016-17)

2012(2017-18)

2013(2018-19)

2014(2019-20)

76571 ZIP Births vs Kindergarten Enrollment

K Enrollment Zip Code Births

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Salado ISD will enroll more than 2,000 students by 2019• 5 year growth = 444 students• 2021/22 enrollment = 2,198 students• 10 year growth = 962 students• 2026/27 enrollment = 2,716 students

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Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total

Growth Total %2012/13 1 25 73 111 93 91 100 102 98 101 103 121 101 122 108 1,3502013/14 7 35 85 87 123 104 99 116 111 110 116 127 129 109 113 1,471 121 9.0%2014/15 1 60 99 104 102 122 114 108 137 123 109 126 129 129 98 1,561 90 6.1%2015/16 1 58 125 112 110 114 136 117 117 150 132 127 126 127 112 1,664 103 6.6%2016/17 1 62 105 142 127 118 122 152 135 124 149 146 126 124 121 1,754 90 5.4%2017/18 1 62 115 120 159 135 127 132 166 147 128 166 145 124 113 1,840 86 4.9%2018/19 1 62 131 131 133 169 146 136 146 180 151 144 166 142 112 1,950 110 6.0%2019/20 1 62 105 151 147 142 180 159 148 157 183 168 143 163 131 2,040 90 4.6%2020/21 1 62 116 120 169 156 151 193 172 160 161 205 167 140 149 2,122 82 4.0%2021/22 1 62 131 133 134 179 165 162 205 186 164 180 204 164 128 2,198 76 3.6%2022/23 1 62 144 150 149 142 190 178 174 216 190 183 179 200 150 2,308 110 5.0%2023/24 1 62 137 173 168 159 151 204 191 187 222 213 182 176 183 2,409 101 4.4%2024/25 1 62 147 159 193 178 169 162 218 203 192 249 212 179 161 2,485 76 3.2%2025/26 1 62 162 165 178 205 189 181 174 232 208 215 248 208 164 2,592 107 4.3%2026/27 1 62 178 185 184 190 218 201 194 185 238 233 214 243 190 2,716 124 4.8%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCAMPUS Capacity 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

ARNOLD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 287 406 437 457 458 466 468 461 506 541 562 568 610ELEMENTARY TOTALS 406 437 457 458 466 468 461 506 541 562 568 610Elementary Absolute Change 40 31 20 1 8 2 -7 45 35 21 6 42Elementary Percent Change 10.93% 7.64% 4.58% 0.22% 1.75% 0.43% -1.50% 9.76% 6.92% 3.88% 1.07% 7.39%SALADO INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL 567 484 527 560 597 629 672 711 684 705 727 749 803INTERMEDIATE TOTALS 484 527 560 597 629 672 711 684 705 727 749 803Intermediate Absolute Change 3 43 33 37 32 43 39 -27 21 22 22 54Intermediate Percent Change 0.62% 8.88% 6.26% 6.61% 5.36% 6.84% 5.80% -3.80% 3.07% 3.12% 3.03% 7.21%SALADO JUNIOR HIGH 264 282 272 274 330 339 320 349 405 408 394 439 422JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 282 272 274 330 339 320 349 405 408 394 439 422Junior High Absolute Change 50 -10 2 56 9 -19 29 56 3 -14 45 -17Junior High Percent Change 21.55% -3.55% 0.74% 20.44% 2.73% -5.60% 9.06% 16.05% 0.74% -3.43% 11.42% -3.87%SALADO HIGH SCHOOL 623 490 517 548 564 605 661 676 712 754 801 835 880HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 490 517 548 564 605 661 676 712 754 801 835 880High School Absolute Change 11 27 31 16 41 56 15 36 42 47 34 45High School Percent Change 2.30% 5.51% 6.00% 2.92% 7.27% 9.26% 2.27% 5.33% 5.90% 6.23% 4.24% 5.39%DISTRICT TOTALS 1,664 1,754 1,840 1,950 2,040 2,122 2,198 2,308 2,409 2,485 2,592 2,716District Absolute Change 103 90 86 110 90 82 76 110 101 76 107 124District Percent Change 6.60% 5.41% 4.90% 5.98% 4.62% 4.02% 3.58% 5.00% 4.38% 3.15% 4.31% 4.78%

*yellow boxes shows campus is over stated capacity

Summary

• The unemployment rate in Bell County is below 4.5%.

• The median new home sale price within Salado ISD is more than $280,000.

• Roughly 15% of district home sales are of new homes.

• There are currently more than 1,000 planned future lots within Salado ISD.

• By 2020/21 all four campuses will be over current capacity.

• About 14% of the student body resides outside of Salado ISD, with 246 transfers into the district in 2016/17. This is double the number of transfers from 2013/14.

• Salado ISD is expected to add 444 students in the next five years, for a fall 2021 enrollment of 2,198.

• The district will enroll more than 2,700 students by 2026.

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