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SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
2012 PM2.5 SIP
Overview of PM2.5 Science & Research
California Air Resources Board
January 24, 2013
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Outline
• Current scientific knowledge of 24-hour
PM2.5 pollution in the San Joaquin Valley
• Use of photochemical models to determine
precursor limitations
• Ongoing efforts to improve the scientific
foundation
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Science in the SIP Process
• Requires a strong scientific foundation
• Provides ambient measurements to expand
our understanding of the nature of PM2.5
• Improves the algorithms in models and their
ability to simulate air quality conditions
• Supports model applications to predict future
air quality and the response to controls
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California Regional Particulate Matter
Air Quality Study (CRPAQS)
• Major field study conducted in 2000
• Funded by a public/private partnership
• Provided the fundamental science behind annual plan and current 24-hour plan
• Most comprehensive data and science in the country on the origin and fate of PM2.5
• Continues to be a cornerstone of PM2.5 research
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High PM2.5 Levels Occur In Winter
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• PM2.5 builds up over several days or weeks (episode)
• Episodes generally occur during periods with:
– stagnation
– cool temperatures
– high humidity
– low mixing depths 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PM
2.5
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
µg
/m3
)
Month
Bakersfield-California Monthly Average PM2.5
Concentration
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PM2.5 Chemical Composition
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Ammonium Nitrate
• Further oxidation of oxides of nitrogen (NOx)
leads to the formation of nitric acid
• Nitric acid reacts with ammonia to form
ammonium nitrate which is regional in nature
• Reducing NOx is most effective in reducing
ammonium nitrate
• Since 2002, winter-average NOx and
ammonium nitrate have decreased by ~40%
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Organic Carbon
• Organic carbon can be either:
– primary (directly emitted)
– secondary (formed in the atmosphere)
• Primary organic carbon dominant in winter
• Concentrations are highest in urban areas
(wood burning, cooking, and mobile sources)
• Since 2002, winter-average organic carbon
has decreased ~50%
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Use of Photochemical Models
• Identifying the most effective mix of pollutants
to control
• Establishing attainment targets
• Models are best used in a relative (rather
than absolute) sense
• Attainment test combines measured data and
modeling to project air quality into the future
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Modeling Process
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Meteorology Model:
Predicts weather
variables for every grid
cell every few seconds for
an entire year
Air Quality Model:
Predicts all components
of PM2.5 for every grid
cell every few seconds for
a year
Model Performance
Evaluation: Does the
model replicate the
observed nature of the
PM2.5 problem?
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Determining Precursor Sensitivity
• Air quality models provide the best tool to evaluate
the potential effectiveness of controlling different
PM2.5 precursors
• We have conducted model sensitivity runs for
NOx, Primary PM2.5, NH3, VOC, and SOx
• This analysis has been done as part of previous
modeling efforts for CRPAQS as well as the
current PM2.5 plan
• The current plan integrates results of these studies
in determining the most effective control approach
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Effect of 25% Precursor
Reductions at
Bakersfield – California
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Precursor PM2.5 Reduction
(µg/m3)
µg/m3
Reduction/ton
Primary PM2.5 4.44 0.34
NOx 3.75 0.08
NH3 0.55 0.008
SOx 0.18 0.08
VOC -0.10 -0.001
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Summary of Precursor
Effectiveness
• Reductions in direct PM2.5 are the most
beneficial
• NOx controls also provide large benefits
• NH3 controls offer very small benefits
• VOC controls produce very small disbenefits
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Ongoing Efforts to Improve Science
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• Annual science meetings: – International Conference on Atmospheric Chemical Mechanisms
– International Aerosol Modeling Algorithms Conference
– International Conference on Meteorology Modeling
• Field studies to improve modeling databases: – U.S. EPA/ARB Advanced Monitoring Initiative (Feb. 2007)
– ARCTAS (June 2008)
– CalNex (May-July 2010)
– Discover AQ (Jan-Feb 2013)
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NASA P-3B
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• A five-year NASA campaign to improve
the use of satellites to monitor air quality
• Deployment began on January 16, 2013
in the San Joaquin Valley
• ARB and EPA, together with academia,
are major collaborators
NASA UC-12
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San Joaquin Valley 2012 PM2.5 SIP
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Outline
• Proposed Board Action
• Nature of Valley’s PM2.5 Problem
• Attaining the PM2.5 Standard
• Future Valley SIPs
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Proposed Board Action
• District adopted 2012 PM2.5 SIP on
December 20, 2012
• SIP meets Clean Air Act requirements
• Staff recommending approval
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Nature of the Valley’s
PM2.5 Problem
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Valley Conducive to
Pollutant Formation
• PM2.5 builds up over several days or weeks (episode)
• Episodes generally occur during winter periods with:
– Stagnation
– Cool temperatures
– High humidity
– Low mixing depths
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Year to Year Variability
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Progress Accounting for Weather
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bakersfield Fresno
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
ug/
m3
)
2000
2002
2007
2011
Trends in Winter-Average PM2.5 in Years with PM-Conducive Weather Conditions
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Ongoing NOx Reductions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Em
issio
ns
(to
ns/d
ay)
23 January 24, 2013
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Preliminary Assessment of
2012 PM2.5 Data
• 2011 weather was very conducive to
high PM2.5 concentrations
• 2012 weather was more moderate
• Most 2012 PM2.5 design values
expected to improve compared to 2011
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Attaining the PM2.5 Standard
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Current PM2.5 SIP Revision
• District adopted SIP revision on December 20, 2012
• Addresses 35 ug/m3 PM2.5 standard established in 2006
• 90% of Valley attains by 2017; remaining Bakersfield site attains by 2019
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Attainment Demonstration
• Ongoing ARB and District programs and enhanced wood burning rule bring Valley into attainment with exception of Bakersfield
• Commercial cooking measure brings Bakersfield into attainment
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• Ammonium nitrate is decreasing Valleywide
• Directly emitted PM2.5 significant contributor
to wintertime PM2.5 episodes
• Key attainment strategy:
Diesel engines and passenger vehicles
Residential wood burning
Commercial cooking operations
Importance of Controlling
Directly Emitted PM2.5
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• Exposure to wood smoke increases hospitalization
and emergency room visits for:
• Asthma
• Other respiratory illnesses
• Cardiovascular disease
• District’s current rule provides significant health
benefits
• Strengthening rule provides additional protection for
children, asthmatics, and other sensitive populations
Curtailing Residential
Wood Burning
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Reducing Commercial
Cooking Emissions
• Current District rule applicable to chain driven devices
• Expands rule to under-fired devices
• Pushes technology advancement
• District working with South Coast
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“Significant” PM2.5 Precursors
• Under EPA Rule, PM2.5, NOx, and SOx are presumptive “significant” precursors
• Latest science shows PM2.5, NOx and SOx are “significant” precursors for the 24-hour SIP
• Approved annual SIP determined these same precursors were “significant”
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Other Clean Air Act
Requirements
Emission Inventory
Reasonable Further Progress
Reasonably Available Control Measures
Contingency
January 24, 2013 32
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Future Valley SIPs
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34
19
90
19
94
20
20
20
04
2015
2007
20
08
20
18
20
14
20
13
San Joaquin Valley SIP Timeline
January 24, 2013
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Multi-Pollutant Planning
• Integrate ARB planning efforts for SIPs, AB 32 Scoping Plan, and freight planning
• Multiple SIPs for ozone and PM2.5, but common strategies
• Periodic standard review by EPA required by the Clean Air Act
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Recommendation
• Approve San Joaquin Valley 2012 PM2.5 Plan as a revision to the California State Implementation Plan
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