![Page 1: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model)
Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and implement an optimization system for the Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST) that will facilitate identification of more cost-effective and otherwise optimal approaches to pollutant load reduction for CBP partners.
20 February 2019Modeling Workgroup Quarterly Review
Daniel Kaufman and the CBPO Modeling Team
![Page 2: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
BMP effects simulated in CAST
Would like to find low-cost BMP strategies, butnot feasible to exhaustively try potential scenarios
Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST)
Best Management Practices (BMPs)
Less nutrients
Less sediment
2
![Page 3: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Developing optimization engine
Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST)
Best Management Practices (BMPs)
Less nutrients
Less sediment
Optimization engine
Minimize Total Cost ($)
Achieve targetLoad Reduction
3
![Page 4: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PLANS
Near-term:
Beta version in first quarter 2019 using only efficiency BMPs (those whose effects can be most readily formulated into a mathematical programming model) to provide utility & gather feedback.
Longer-term:
Incorporate additional BMPs into optimization framework, and/or test heuristic optimization algorithm(s) to iteratively sample the scenario-space.
4
![Page 5: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Version Beta-1 Prototyping
5
![Page 6: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Last ModWG Meeting: Software updates
6
1
2
3
Code base restructuring
Model generationfor different studies
Code interfacefor specifying runs
![Page 7: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Path to Version Beta-1
• Test outputs– adapt code for outputting to CAST CSV format
• Design / interface
• Different base load years (time permitting)
How can we present preliminary results while having the page serve as a great feedback-gathering apparatus?
7
![Page 8: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography County X or multiple counties
![Page 9: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
![Page 10: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Select objective minimize cost or maximize load reduction
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
![Page 11: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Select objective minimize cost
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
![Page 12: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Select main constraint achieve target load reduction or limit to specified total cost
Select objective minimize cost
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
![Page 13: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Select main constraint achieve target load reduction
Select objective minimize cost
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
![Page 14: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Select main constraint achieve target load reduction
Select objective minimize cost
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
Select main constraint _________________
![Page 15: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Select main constraint achieve target load reduction
Select objective minimize cost
Primary Optimization Specifications
Select geography Lancaster county, PA
Select main constraint 1% … 40%
![Page 16: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Lancaster County, PA
N lbs. reduced (from “2010 No Action”)
Costs are estimated in 2010 dollars. Costs represent a single year of cost rather than the cost over the entire lifespan of the practice. Costs are annualized average costs per unit of BMP (e.g.: $/acre treated/year). Capital and opportunity costs are amortized over the BMP lifespan and added to annual operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for a total annualized cost. Costs are those incurred by both public and provide entities. Default costs were prepared for EPA using existing data. Bay jurisdictions were provided with the opportunity to review and amend the unit costs for BMPs in the Phase 2 WIP. However, alternative costs for practices can be specified by a user.
All results are draft/preliminary, and subject to revision.
Objective: Minimize Total Cost ($)
2 mil.
4 mil.
6 mil.
8 mil.
10 mil.
12 mil.
14 mil.
![Page 17: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Lancaster County, PAObjective: Minimize Total Cost ($)
![Page 18: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Lancaster County, PAObjective: Maximize Load Reduction ($)
N lbs. reduced (from “2010 No Action”)
Costs are estimated in 2010 dollars. Costs represent a single year of cost rather than the cost over the entire lifespan of the practice. Costs are annualized average costs per unit of BMP (e.g.: $/acre treated/year). Capital and opportunity costs are amortized over the BMP lifespan and added to annual operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for a total annualized cost. Costs are those incurred by both public and provide entities. Default costs were prepared for EPA using existing data. Bay jurisdictions were provided with the opportunity to review and amend the unit costs for BMPs in the Phase 2 WIP. However, alternative costs for practices can be specified by a user.
All results are draft/preliminary, and subject to revision.
![Page 19: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Lancaster County, PAObjective: Maximize Load Reduction ($)
![Page 20: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Lancaster, PA
20
N load reduction (%)
![Page 21: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Selecting BMPs
21
![Page 22: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Lancaster, PA
22
![Page 23: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Lancaster, PA
23
WaterControlStructures
UrbanNutrientManagementPlan,HighRiskLawn
TillageManagement–ContinuousHighResidue
CoverCropTraditionalRyeEarlyDrilled
SoilConservationandWaterQualityPlans
BarnRunoffControl
AgriculturalStormwaterManagement
![Page 24: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Lancaster, PA
24
acresCover Crop Traditional Rye Early Drilled
![Page 25: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Lancaster, PA
25
![Page 26: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Continuing
• Working on including additional, complex, BMPs. Multiple approaches.
• Collaboration with Advisory and Support Committee and Dr. Skipper
26
Advisory & Support Committee External Collaboration
![Page 27: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Current status
27
“Straw-arm” prototype (Part of straw-man)
§ Resultsaredraft/preliminary,andsubjecttorevision.
§ Prototypeisnotintendedforusein
PhaseIIIWIPdevelopment.§ Betaversionprototypewillnot
includeBMPsotherthanefficiencies.ThereareotherBMPs,e.g.Buffers,thatareimportantforreducingload.
Costinformation(fromtheCASTdocumentation):TheChesapeakeBayWatershed[costprofile]isanaverageofallstates… Costsareestimatedin2010dollars.CapitalandopportunitycostsareamortizedovertheBMPlifespanandaddedtoannualoperationsandmaintenance(O&M)costsforatotalannualizedcost.Theinterestrateforcapitalandopportunitycostsis5%.Costsarethoseincurredbybothpublicandprovideentities.Costsrepresentasingleyearofcostratherthanthecostovertheentirelifespanofthepractice.DefaultcostswerepreparedforEPAusingexistingdata.BayjurisdictionswereprovidedwiththeopportunitytoreviewandamendtheunitcostsforBMPsinthePhase2WIP.
![Page 28: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Will be shaped by feedback
Design
Baseline OptimizationPrototype
Co-benefits
Cost Tradeoffs
Local Targets
IdentifyingAlternatives
Email me (Danny) at: [email protected]
Actively searching for ways to engage local decision makers at all scales (county, municipal, state, etc.) for their guidance and feedback on prototype design.
![Page 29: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Extra slides follow
29
![Page 30: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Orange = Efficiency BMPs
Best Management Practices (BMPs) in CAST
30
![Page 31: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Efficiency BMPs include:
• Cover crops
• Conservation tillage
• Urban Nutrient management
• Bio-retention
![Page 32: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Prototype methods
• Cover crops
• Conservation tillage
• Urban Nutrient management
• Bio-retention
Minimize (total cost)
Constrained by: (Target load)
The same calculations as in CAST
Using CAST data for acres available, BMP efficiencies & costs, base loading, load sources, etc.
![Page 33: Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST...Feb 20, 2019 · Scenario Optimization Tool for CAST (the time-averaged Phase 6 watershed model) Project Goal: Investigate, develop, test, and](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071219/60569a24fdd04c7323429bea/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Main Software Tools/Requirements
- Model code formulated with Pyomo1 (algebraic modeling language library for python) developed by Sandia National Laboratories.
- Model instances solved using IPOPT2 (interior point / barrier method solver) developed at Carnegie Mellon Univ. and available as part of the Computational Infrastructure for Operations Research (COIN-OR)
33
1Hart, William E., Carl D. Laird, Jean-Paul Watson, David L. Woodruff, Gabriel A. Hackebeil, Bethany L. Nicholson, and John D. Siirola. Pyomo – Optimization Modeling in Python. Second Edition. Vol. 67. Springer, 2017. Hart, William E., Jean-Paul Watson, and David L. Woodruff. "Pyomo: modeling and solving mathematical programs in Python." Mathematical Programming Computation 3(3) (2011): 219-260.
2A. Wächter and L. T. Biegler, On the Implementation of a Primal-Dual Interior Point Filter Line Search Algorithm for Large-Scale Nonlinear Programming, Mathematical Programming 106(1), pp. 25-57, 2006