Science Advisory Board Public Session
1
Peter Schultz, Ph.D.Associate Director for Science IntegrationClimate Change Science Program Office
CCSP Update
May 3, 2005
Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
CCSP Update
May 3, 2005
Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
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CCSP Update CCSP Update
1. Background
2. Synthesis and Assessment Products
3. Climate Science Workshop
4. International Assessments
5. Our Changing Planet
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CCSP BackgroundCCSP Background
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990
President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001
President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs – February 14, 2002
a Climate Change Science Program (~$2B/year)a Climate Change Technology Program (~$3B/year)
CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP
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CCSP Internal StructureCCSP Internal Structure
CCSP Interagency CommitteeDirector: Asst. Sec. of Commerce
for Oceans & Atmosphere
CCSP Office
Atm. Comp. Climate Var. & Change
Water CycleLULCC
Communications HD / HCR
International
Carbon Cycle
Ecosystems
Observations
Inte
rag
ency
W
ork
ing
Gro
up
s
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CCSP GoalsCCSP Goals
5 Climate Science Goals
Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment
Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate
Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes
Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems
Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities
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CCSP Priority Areas FY06CCSP Priority Areas FY06
Aerosols
Carbon Sources and Sinks
Water Cycle
Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity to Natural and Human-Induced Forcing
Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change
Global Climate Observations
Climate Modeling Systems
Decision Support Capabilities
Communications between Scientists and Information Users
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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products
• Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program
• Components of the process - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing - Approval, production, and release (“Information Quality Act”)
• 21 Products
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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products
1.1 Temperature trends
1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change
1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution
2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations
2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for global carbon cycle
2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate
2.4 Ozone: Emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications
3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations
3.2 Climate projections
3.3 Climate extremes
3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change
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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products
4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise
4.2 Thresholds of ecosystem change
4.3 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes & climate change
4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources
4.5 Implications of different atmospheric concentrations of GHGs
4.6 Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability
4.7 Transportation and climate change and variability
5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support
5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and
incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking
5.3 Decision support using seasonal to interannual forecasts and
observational data
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CCSP WorkshopCCSP Workshop
Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA
Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process.
Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSP’s three decision support goals:
• Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international)• Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities.• Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries
Registration: http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/
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U.S. Models • CCSM3, PCM, GFDL (2 versions), and GISS (3 versions). • All are coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models• New model development: US models include 2nd highest resolution in the international effort• Ensemble simulations to characterize uncertainty All simulations available to the modeling community through PCMDI, and a subset of data for impacts researchers through IPCC TGICA
CCSP role • Funding provided to participating community• Support for meetings to review model results• Papers in preparation to meet AR4 publication deadline• Support for WG I TSU and participation of US scientists
IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Timeline
2004May – Confirmation of author teamsSep – First Lead Author meeting
2005Jan – Zero order draft submitted to Technical Support UnitSep – First order draft to external reviewers
2006Apr – Second order draft to external and Gov’t reviewersSep – Final draft submitted to TSU
2007Jan – Approval at WG1 Plenary Session of Gov’t reps