Bootle Town Hall
Sir John BeddingtonChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and
Head of the Government Office for Science
10th February 2011
Scientific Advice in Government: Collaborating and Communicating
“Those nations that invest in science are investing in the
future. Those that cut science are hoping for the best.”
Peter Agre, President of the AAAS & Nobel Prize
winner
The role of the Chief Scientific The role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM GovernmentAdviser to HM Government
• Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet
• Responsible for the quality of all engineering and scientific advice across the whole of Government
• Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers
• Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service
• Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a cross- Government challenge and support role
WhatWhat’’s in my s in my ‘‘inin’’ tray?tray?
Water demand
Energy demand
Urbanisation
Population Alleviating poverty
Climate Change
Food security
Infectious diseases
Counter-terrorism Volcanoes Structure of Financial Systems
A Network of Chief Scientific AdvisersA Network of Chief Scientific Advisersin all major science using departmentsin all major science using departments
Prof Brian Collins
BIS
Prof Jeremy Watson
CLG
Anita Charlesworth
DCMS
Prof David MackayDECC
Prof Bob Watson
Defra
Prof Chris Whitty
DFID
Prof DameSally Davies
DH
Dr Bill Gunnyeon
DWP
Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C.
Prof David Clary FCO
Carole WillisDfE
Dr Andrew Wadge
FSA
Patrick McDonald
HSE
Prof Mark Welland
MoD
Prof Anne Glover
Scotland
MI5
Prof John HarriesWales
Prof Adrian Smith DG Science & Research (BIS)
Prof Brian Collins
DfT
Prof Bernard Silverman
Home Office
Rebecca Endean
MoJ
CSAC Issues GroupsCSAC Issues Groups
CounterterrorismClimate Change and
Food Security
Cross cutting issues that require a range of expertise and experience to ensure science based evidence supports policy making
Climate Change and Food Climate Change and Food Security SubSecurity Sub--GroupGroup
Topics discussed haveincluded:
• Food Matters• 2008 Food price spike• Ocean acidification• Tropospheric ozone• Contribution of engineering
to address climate change
CounterCounter--Terrorism SubTerrorism Sub--GroupGroup
Topics discussed haveincluded:
• Counter-IED• Cyber security• 2012 Olympics Security
Council for Science Council for Science and Technologyand Technology
•
Advises the Prime Minister on science and technology issues that cut across departments
•
5 broad themes: Research Science and society Education Science and government Technology innovation
•
Since 2003 has published 12 reports and provided shorter pieces of advice when
required
•
A recent key piece of work: A Vision for UK Research
The Government Office for The Government Office for ScienceScience
Science in GovernmentTeam
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Foresight Team
BIS International
• GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government role
• GO - Science provide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy officials and for scientists across Government
Private Office
The Prime Minister and Cabinet
• Ministers• CSAs• OGDs• NGOs• Industry
International Dimensions of Climate
Change
Global Environmental
Migration
Foresight: Solutions to the Foresight: Solutions to the Perfect StormPerfect Storm
• Ensuring the contribution of engineers and scientists is recognised and valued in Government
• Providing support to career development activities and professional skills
• Community of Scientists and Engineers across Government
The Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s role as Head of the Science and Engineering Profession
Science at the grassroots of Science at the grassroots of Government?Government?
The GSE community The GSE community at two yearsat two years
808 GSE members have a PhD
1718 GSE members have chartered status or are members of professional bodies.
948 follow a programme of Continuing Professional Development (CPD)
66% of GSE members are in the grade/range HEO to grade 7
3200+ members
HighlySkilled
700+ different areas of expertise
Diverse
Large
GSE: Membership ProfileGSE: Membership Profile
73732727
20
3050
59% work in a post where their science expertise and/or qualifications are an essential part of their job
Why do we need coWhy do we need co--ordinated, ordinated, effective scientific advice?effective scientific advice?
Lessons from the Past:Lessons from the Past:Foot and Mouth 2001Foot and Mouth 2001
“The involvement of independent sources of scientific advice early in the 2001 epidemic was due to the personal intervention of the
Chairman of the Food Standards Agency. The formal engagement of a
scientific advisory group was not until 35 days after the start of the epidemic”
Lessons to Be Learned from the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak of 2001 Inquiry
The Concept of SAGEThe Concept of SAGE
SAGE (strategic)
is informed by/commissions from/coordinates
Departmental scienceadvice
Science providers (academia, industry, DSTL, etc.)
informs and advises
COBR: including DAs
commissions
SAGE MembershipSAGE Membership
SAGE
CSAs AcademiaIndustry experts
Regulators
Government experts:•DSTL
•HPA
•AWE
•Research Councils
•And others…….
International expertsLearned academies
• 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland
• 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100 years),
• 78% were explosive (due partly to ice-caps on central volcanoes), 13% part explosive, 9% effusive
• In last 1100 years: 79% basaltic, 16% intermediate, 5% silicic
• Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140 years.
Thordarson and Larsen 2007
Frequency of explosive and partly explosive Icelandic eruptions since 850AD (per 20-years)
Iceland’s Volcanoes
The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano
Putting it into Practice: Putting it into Practice: The Volcanic Ash CloudThe Volcanic Ash Cloud
Scientific and engineering input to the Scientific and engineering input to the volcanic ash emergencyvolcanic ash emergency
National Security Council (Threats Hazards Risks and Contingencies)
Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE)
Chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Geology and volcanology
subgroup
Meteorology subgroup
Aviation engineering subgroup
Met Office
British Geological
Survey
Academic experts
Research Councils / Government scientists
Commission new research
Peer review incoming science advice
Help with planning advice
What should and What should and did did SAGE do?SAGE do?
Example: No immediate health and environmental issues
Example: review of NERC Dornier measurements of ash cloud
Provide briefing on issues and concepts
Example: why did the Icelandic volcano contain so much fine ash?
Provide assessments on future prognosisand produce response scenarios
Example: future scenarios for Iceland eruptions and meteorological conditions
“All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison from a
remedy.”
Paracelsus, 1493‐1531
Risk = Hazard x Exposure
Communicating Risk:Communicating Risk:Hazard based regulationHazard based regulation
Has slowed uptake of GMHas slowed uptake of GM……
Despite “consumer fears” five approvals have now been granted in the EU
• Amflora potatoes approved for starch production (mostly paper making)
• The by-product produced is approved to be used as animal feed
25 countries that have adopted biotech crops
Source: Clive James, 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Hec
tare
s (m
illio
n)
Year
……and could result in potential misuses and could result in potential misuses of the precautionary principleof the precautionary principle
Bisphenol
A – Baby Bottles
This potentially legitimises an overly precautionary approach in
the absence of scientific evidence showing any risk
Pesticides – plant protection products
Source: Met Office
Climate Risk: The 2Climate Risk: The 2°°C targetC target
• Danger of forest fires• Some cereal crops may increase in
mid to high latitudes• Rising temperatures will cause
changes in rainfall patterns• Glacier melt
• Drought events one and a half times as frequent across southern Africa and Mediterranean basin
• Hottest days: China 4°C warmer; North America 8°C warmer; Europe 6°C warmer.
• Global average sea level rise by approx 40cm.
+ 2 - 6°C
+ 1 - 2°C
+ 1 - 3°C
+ 1 - 3°C
Source: Met Office
• Increased danger of forest fires• Crop yields decrease• Up to 70% reduction in water run-off. • Sea levels could rise as much as
80cm by the end of the century• Extreme glacier melt
• Fisheries severely depleted.• Drought events twice as frequent.• Disappearance of the permafrost• Decline of ice sheets• Tropical cyclones more intense.• Hottest days: China 6°C warmer; North
America 11°C warmer; Europe 8°C warmer.
+ 8 - 16°C
+ 5 - 7°C
+ 3 - 8°C
+ 4 - 8°C
Now a real risk of a 4Now a real risk of a 4°°C average C average temperature risetemperature rise
Source: AVOID, Technical Note, 2010
The Copenhagen PledgesThe Copenhagen Pledges
Significant cuts in global emissions after 2020 will be required (pink and orange lines)
The Climate Change Committee has made a number of recommendations which have been taken forward in legislation:
• The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 80% by 2050, as a fair contribution to a global action on climate change
• The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 34% by 2020
• Once a global deal is reached, the target should increase to 42% by 2020
The UK CommitmentThe UK Commitment
2020 target
151
113
66
47
49
97
93
2009 emissions
Aviation & shipping*
Non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2Industry
Residential, public & commercial heat
Road transport
Electricity generation
* 2008 emissions(2009 not yet available); bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
615 Mt CO2e
74% cut (= 80% vs.
1990)
Interim budget
Intended budget
42% cut vs. 1990
The 80% reduction is an The 80% reduction is an enormous challengeenormous challenge
Source: Climate Change Committee, based on a figure in the report ‘Building a low carbon economy’
An investment and engineering An investment and engineering challenge for current technology challenge for current technology
Technology Annual Deployment Rate
Coal with CCS 35 plants (500MW)
Gas with CCS 20 plants (500MW)
Nuclear plants 32 plants (1000MW)
Hydro-power 1/5 Canada’s hydropower capacity
Biomass plants 100 plants (50MW)
Wind onshore 14000 turbines (4MW)
Wind offshore 3750 turbines (4MW)
Geothermal 130 geothermal units (100MW)
Solar PV 215million M2 solar panels
Solar CSP 80 CSP plants (250MW)
Source: IEA 2008
Nuclear Energy: good example of Nuclear Energy: good example of RiskRisk--Hazard balance Hazard balance
• By its nature, nuclear energy presents a major hazard: dealing with large amounts of radioactivity
• Importance of ‘Managed Risk’: from site selection and plant design, to construction and operation, to waste management and decommissioning
• Recognising the need for Nuclear Energy in the future
EDF/AREVA
UK EPR Westinghouse AP1000
Low Carbon Opportunities Low Carbon Opportunities –– e.g. Offshore Winde.g. Offshore Wind
Source: The London Array
New Risks: Climate Change and future planning
• uncertainty about how it may effect future wind patterns
• ‘blocking events’ ; average wind speed changes etc
Risks: We also have to think about Risks: We also have to think about Climate Change Climate Change adaptationadaptation
Bridge collapse at Cockermouth, 2009
If we don’t adapt our new and existing long life infrastructure then we face increasing risk of impacts of climate change disrupting essential
services and adversely affecting the economy
Semi‐submerged power station at Walham
Stretch of Great
Western rail line
at Dawlish
Infrastructure Report: Understanding Infrastructure Report: Understanding and preparing for future risksand preparing for future risks
• Set up 2 year cross-departmental Infrastructure and Adaptation project to examine and identify how long-term resilience of infrastructure to climate change might be increased.
• Introduced Adaptation Reporting Power which covers key infrastructure sectors.
• Started UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
That is why Adapting to Climate Change Programme has prioritised infrastructure:
These have been challenging times These have been challenging times for science and engineering...for science and engineering...
……but challenges drive us forward but challenges drive us forward
We must focus on communicating
these scientific challenges: both the solutions and risks/uncertainties
Stephen ChuUS Secretary
of Energy
Western Governors' Association (WGA) annual meeting in Utah14-16 June
“people are entitled to their own opinions, but they are not
entitled to their own facts"
“In the long history of humankind those who learned to collaborate and
improvise most effectively have prevailed”
Charles Darwin, 1809-1882
“In science the credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not to the
man to whom the idea first occurs.”
Francis Darwin, 1848-1925