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Scientific Basis for Modeling Wildland Fire Management:
Phase II Report of the National Science and Analysis Team
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Tasks Assigned to NSAT 1. Assemble credible scientific information, data, and
preexisting models that can be used by all teams working on the Cohesive Strategy.
2. Develop a conceptual framework that describes the relative effectiveness of proposed actions and activities on managing risks associated with wildland fire.
3. Construct an analytical system using the products developed in Tasks 1 and 2 to quantitatively analyze regional and national alternatives.
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Organization by Topics Landscape resilience Wildfire ignitions and preventions Fuels management, wildfire extent and intensity Wildfire response and suppression effectiveness Fire adapted human communities Firefighter safety Smoke management and impacts Public acceptance and policy effectiveness
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Managers & Stakeholders
Analysts & Scientists
Model Effects
Specify Objectives
Design Alternatives
Synthesize Results
Basic CRAFT Process
Phase 2
Phase 3
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General Analysis Process Qualitative , Textual Descriptions
Conceptual, Box and Arrow Model(s)
Quantitative Analytical Model
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Management Actions, Policies, andActivities (Alternatives)
Fuel Treatments (non-fire)
Prescribed Fire Community Planning
Response Capacity and
Tactics
Prevention Programs
Vegetation Composition and
Structure
Marketable Products
Ecological Services
Wildfire Extent and Intensity
Response to Wildfire
Firefighter Safety
Public Safety
Community Preparedness &
Resiliency
Property Losses
Smoke
Wildfire Ignitions
Overall Conceptual Diagram
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Highlight Ignitions and Prevention
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Expand I&P Conceptual Model to Include Additional Factors and Detail
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Natural/Lightning
Campfire
Smoking
Fire Use/Debris Burning
Incendiary/Arson
Equipment (Use)
Railroad
Juveniles/Children
Number of Ignitions Area Burned
Wildfire Data from USDOI and FS Lands, 2000-2008
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Highlight Fuels Management and Fire Behavior
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Expand Fuels Management Conceptual Model
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Strategic fuel treatment taxonomy, with illustrative examples of optimally placed treatments given variable motivation, fire regime, spatial pattern of values, and ultimate treatment strategy/system (Credit: Alan Ager and Nicole Vaillant)
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Factors Contributing to Response Effectiveness Controllable Partial Control Uncontrollable Training Equipment Experience Coordination Tactics Prevention Enforcement
Fuels Ignitions Fire intensity Infrastructure Funding Policies Land use Public
engagement
Weather Topography Location
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Cause of death for wildland firefighters 2000-2009 for all jurisdictions by Region in which the fatality occurred.
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An Overview Conceptual Model of Firefighter Safety Related to Incidents
Management Alternatives
Fuels management
Wildfire Extent and Intensity
Training and experience
Exposure
Uncontrollable drivers (topography, weather)
Wildfire prevention
Incident management
non-fire factors
PRE-FIRE
PRE-FIRE
PRE-FIRE
PRE-FIRE
PRE-FIRE
DURING FIRE
DURING FIRE
DURING FIRE
DURING FIRE
DURING FIRE
DURING FIRE
communications
assignment
Equipment / Technology
personal responsibility
Learning
POST-FIRE
PRE-FIRE
Situational awareness and hazard response
mitigation
hazard Firefighter Safety
Personnel standards
screening
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Strategic investment
Workforce emphasis
Incident management
emphasis
Fire attribute emphasis
Position within Figure 2
shown by black and red:
Standards, training, experience X X Technology, equipment X X Communications X X Health monitoring X Personnel standards, screening efforts
X
Incident learning X X X Fire behavior and weather modeling
X X X
Wildfire prevention efforts X Fuels reduction X Forest and disease management X
Pathways to reducing firefighter deaths and injuries
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Fire Adapted Human
Communities
Household Preparedness
Social Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability &
Resilience
Institutions & Governance
Neighborhood & Structure
Characteristics
Ecosystem Services
Individual & Household Elements
Community Elements
Physical & Environmental
Elements
Combination of characteristics leads to
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Outreach
Land Use Planning
Fuel Treatments
Home preparation
Communication
Evacuation
Home defense
Pre Wildfire During Wildfire Post Wildfire
Coordination Planning
Rebuilding
Outreach
Fuel Treatments
Assessments
Risk Assessment
Coordination
Education
Coordination
Restoration & Rehabilitation
Community Recovery
FAHC Conceptual Model Range of Activities by Wildfire Timeframe
Fire Adapted Human
Communities
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Conclusions Challenges increase with scale: fine-scale or short-term processes
are better understood than broad-scale or long-term processes or strategic issues.
Imbalance among sciences: considerably more research has focused on the biophysical aspects of wildland fire than on equally important socio-political issues.
Integrated research increasing: efforts that focus on interactions among human and physical factors are becoming more common and are highly promising.
Comprehensive data essential: understanding nationwide trends and patterns requires consistent, standardized data.
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Conclusions Foundation established: The conceptual models and accompanying
information collectively provide a strong foundation for building more rigorous models in Phase III.
Building quantitative models challenging: estimating risk to social values will not be easy. Various limitations in available data and understanding will pose challenges.
Phase III analysis a team effort: all committees and groups have a continuing role in ensuring that the analyses are matched to the most important questions, utilize the best available knowledge, and provide transparent results.