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Karen Von Damm
Towards an Estimate of Global SMSPotential
Hannington M.Jamieson J.Monecke T.Petersen S.
SeafloorMassiveSulfideDeposits
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January 17, 2011 First Seabed Mining Licence
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Report to the European Commission
Annual increase of about 15% in the price of non-energy raw materials
A risk of supply shortage for commodities critical to Europe's economy
Advances in technology areencouraging seafloor exploration
By 2020, 5% of the world's minerals,including cobalt, copper and zinc, could come from the ocean (10% by 2030)
Marine mining can be expected to grow to €5 billion in the next 10 years (€10 billion by 2030)
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Global Distribution of Hydrothermal Vents
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• 140 sites of high-temperature venting (black smokers)
• 65% at mid-ocean ridges (64,000 km)
• 22% in back-arc basins (25,000 km including arcs)
• 12% on submarine volcanic arcs (incompletely explored)
• <1% on intraplate volcanoes
Distribution of Sea-Floor Hydrothermal Vents
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12 different tectonic settings
• mid-ocean ridges (fast, intermediate, slow, ultraslow spreading centers)• ridge-hotspot intersections• ridge-transform intersections• off-axis volcanoes• intraplate volcanoes• sediment-covered ridges• intracontinental rifts, rifted margins• intraoceanic arcs• transitional (or island) arcs• continental margin arcs• intraoceanic back-arc basins• intracontinental back-arc basins
Hannington et al. (2005) 100th Anniversary Volume of Economic Geology
Volcanic & Tectonic Settings
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Submarine volcanic arcs and back-arc basins are almost entirely in EEZs Mid-ocean ridges are almost entirely in “The Area”
EEZs versus “The Area”
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37oS East Pacific Rise
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Technically Off Limits
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• 327 sites with manifestations of hydrothermal activity• 140 sites of active venting or polymetallic sulfides • 187 sites of other hydrothermal manifestations
• 1,250 literature references and other data sources • 3,800 chemical analyses of polymetallic sulfides (95 sites)• increasing by about 10% per year
The global database ...
New discoveries are being made ... but are they different from what has already been found?
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N= 3869
Bulk Compositions
Hannington et al., 2005
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Water Depth
Hannington et al., 2005
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Average bulk compositions of 95 SMS deposits, 3869 surface samples
17414.91.15.49.7250Solwara 1 (Surface)
9532.310.020.33.160Continental Margin Arc69212.22.014.86.4728Transitional Arc4079.62.417.75.3169Intraoceanic Arc2106.60.916.43.9668Intraoceanic Back-arc840.50.53.61.1173Sedimented Ridges891.6<0.16.15.92071Mid-Ocean Ridges
ppmwt%AgAuPbZnCuNGeological Setting
Grade Distribution
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Grade distribution ...
The median deposit has grades of 4.3% Cu, 10.6% Zn, and 0.1 % Pb
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Grade distribution ...
... and precious metal grades of 1.7 g/t Au and 107 g/t Ag
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Comparison with Ancient VMS
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N= 3869
Average grades of surface samples
Hannington, unpubl.
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Ba enrichment at Axial Seamount, Lucky Strike (E-MORB vs N-MORB) Pb enrichment in Juan de Fuca deposits (FeTi basalt) Hg enrichment in Endeavour Ridge sulfide deposits (buried sediment) Ni enrichment in Logatchev, Rainbow sulfides (ultramafic substrate)
Axial Seamount, Ba-rich basalt
Trace Element Signatures of the Basement
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Trace Elements in Ancient VMS
Hannington, in press
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Global Exploration Models for Polymetallic Sulphide Deposits in the Area: Possible Criteria for Lease Block Selection under
the Draft Regulations on Prospecting and Exploration for Polymetallic Sulphides
Prepared for the International Seabed Authority byMark Hannington and Thomas Monecke
University of OttawaJune 21, 2006
ISBA/12/C/3/Part II
Marine Georesources and Geotechnology, 2009, v. 27, no. 2
Draft Regulations
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32 Control Areas of 5° X 5°
Deposit Densities
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CentralIndian Ridge
CentralCentralIndian Indian RidgeRidge
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In each 5 x 5 deg map, the areas considered to be “permissive” for deposits ranged from 25,000 to 100,000 km2
Permissive Areas for SMS Exploration
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Han
ning
ton
et a
l., 2
011
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Number and Spacing ofDeposits
The average permissivearea contains 3.4deposits
The average spacingbetween depositsis 98 km
89,000 km of ridge, arc,and back-arc basin should contain ~900deposits
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Comparison with Heat Flow Data
Lister, 1972
The missing heat = 1.8 x 1012 W (Mottl, 2003)
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How many black smokers are there?
• 1.8 x 1012 W (Mottl, 2003)• 10% at black smoker temperatures; the rest is diffuse• 2 to 5 MW for a single black smoker (Converse et al, 1984)• 50,000 to 100,000 black smokers (at least 1 every km of ridge axis)
NOAA Age of the Ocean Floor
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• 1.8 x 1012 W (10% at black smoker temperatures) • 200 to 500 MW for a large field (100 black smokers)• 1 large field every 50 to 100 km of ridge axis• 500 to 1,000 deposits in the neovolcanic zones
How many vent fields are there?
NOAA Age of the Ocean Floor
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What if you could just suck it up?
Medusa
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What if you could just suck it up ...?
Single Black Smoker 500 kg Cu metal/yr Large Vent Field 50,000 kg Cu metal/yr Kidd Creek Mine 75,000,000 kg Cu metal /yr
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• EPR-type <0.01 Mtmeters to 10s of meters in diameter
• Galapagos-Type (TAG, MAR) 1-2 Mt150 m in diameter, 40 m high
• Sunrise, Solwara (Manus) 2-5 Mt300 m in diameter
• Middle Valley (JFR) 10 Mtmassive sulfide and subseafloor replacement
• Atlantis II Deep (Red Sea) 90 Mtmetalliferous sediment
Sizes of the Largest DepositsDeposit Sizes
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*(100 black smokers at 350oC)
9oN
Mass Accumulation Rates
Hannington, unpubl.
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1 km
Jamieson and Hannington, 2010
“Footprints” on the Seafloor
WHOI
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Difficulties in Measuring the Sizes of Deposits
(Iizasa et al., 1999)
400 m x 400 m 30 m relief
9 million tonnes
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Reliable Estimates Require Extensive Drilling
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Using drill-indicated sizes of a fewSMS deposits, it is possible to “calibrate” the size distribution of other SMS occurrences
Calibrating estimates of deposit sizes ...
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SMS tonnes
Tonnes
SMS Tonnage Curve
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N = 1000600 Mt
Cumulative Tonnage for the Neovolcanic Zones
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Different scales of hydrothermal convection Fast versus slow, shallow versus deep
Size matters
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Most of the Tonnage is on Slow Ridges
Hannington et al., 2011
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Data from land-based mining include only thosedeposits of sufficient size to have been drilled
If uneconomic depositsare included, the mediansize is no more thanabout 100,000 t, similarto SMS
USGS Deposit Models
A comparison with Cyprus deposits ...
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The Kuroko deposits of Japan are higher grade andslightly smaller than theCyprus deposits ...
... but still an order ofmagnitude larger than themedian deposit size ofknown SMS
USGS Deposit Models
A comparison with the Kuroko deposits ...
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Global Distribution of VMS Deposits
Total past productionand current resources~ 14 billion tonnes
Hannington, unpubl.
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24 Active Mines123 Prospects116 Former Mines
598,644,000 tonnes reserves465,428,000 tonnes undeveloped455,754,000 tonnes mined
Unmined Resources in Canadian VMS
Goodfellow et al. (2006)
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Kidd CreekOntario
So Why Bother with Seafloor Mining?
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modified from Gibson, 2003
500 m
Other Cu-Zn
Solwara 12.57 Mt7.7 Cu, 0.7 Zn, 5.8 Au, 30 AgNautilus March 2012(indicated and inferred)
Size Matters
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Magnetics Electromagnetics Gravity Heat Flow Seismics
Fugro Airborne multi-sensor arrays for remote and deep detection
Future of Exploration for Resources in the Sea
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Some will be buried more deeply than others ...
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Horizontal drilling, fracking, solution mining ...
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Vast resources in the oceans?
... yes, but where and how much?
WHOI