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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Seasonal Modeling ProjectPI - Nancy Brown, LBNL
Nicole DavisCEC Project Manager
Kick Off MeetingCCOS Technical Meeting
August 15, 2005
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
PIER-EA Program The California Energy Commission's Public
Interest Energy Research (PIER) Environmental Area (EA), which focuses on the effects of energy generation and use on California's air quality.
Two objectives of PEIREA Air Quality- Develop the tools to assess air quality impacts of
energy generation on nearby communities, and Quantify the air quality impacts of energy-
efficiency and load management measures.
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Seasonal Modeling Project Overview CEC funded project: $800,000 June 2005 – June 2008 Principal Investigator: Nancy Brown, LBNL
Objectives: Develop and validate a seasonal modeling platform for
Central California by modeling the entire 2000 summer season using CMAQ.
Investigate how emission control requirements and the need for more electric generating capacity can be optimized in space and time to bring Central California into compliance with the new ozone standards
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Work will Include:
Computer enhancements Inventory development Protocol development Validation and QA from episodic to seasonal Seasonal modeling runs Report and analysis and guidance documents
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
CEC’s Interest in Seasonal Modeling
Increasing number of non-compliance areas justifies use of seasonal modeling
Environmental vs. emissions effects can be statically analyzed and further the state of science
Inter- basin transport can be investigated on a broader scale
Control strategy effectiveness using seasonal modeling may differ
Multi-pollutant analysis requires seasonal modeling
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Increasing Non-Compliance Areas
Many power plants located in Rural Areas may be newly classified in non-attainment with the 8 hour ozone standard.
Because of the scope of data, seasonal modeling may provide different recommendations and alternatives for reducing ozone than episodic modeling.
Investigate effects of both power plant emissions and DG emissions on moderate and high levels of ozone occurrences throughout Central California.
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Interbasin Transport Investigation
Interbasin and short-term credit trading have the potential to mitigate some of the fiscal and environmental impacts of the forecasted surge in electricity growth in California
There is currently a lack of sound scientific evidence of the air quality impacts of such strategies
Seasonal modeling will be used for analyzing long range and long term impact of several trading scenarios
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Control Strategy Effectiveness
It is unknown whether strategies developed from the study of a small number of episodes will be effective for other episode types with different meteorology and emissions
Seasonal modeling will enable evaluating the model over a very broad range of conditions that are simply not sampled when episodic modeling is conducted.
Several scenarios will be modeled to determine potential impacts of DG and power plant placement, operation, growth, and control options.