-
SEDAR 47: Assessment Data and Methods. Comparison of data used in previous
Goliath Grouper Assessments
Joe O’Hop and Joseph Munyandorero
Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL
May 17, 2016
-
AdultGoliathGrouperaggrega0ngattheMG111bargewreckoffofJupiter,FLin65feetofwater.PhotobyMr.WaltStearns,UnderwaterJournal(hHp://www.waltstearns.com/underwaterjournal.html)
-
The prohibition on retention of Goliaths
• TheCouncilswereevalua0ngtheirmanagementplansforreeffish,andamendmentswerebeingdevelopedtoadjustsizelimitsandmanagementgoals.
• Overthecourseofthe1980s,amarkeddeclineinthenumbersandsizeofGoliathsinthecatchwasnotedandbroughttotheCouncils’aHen0on.
• TheStateofFloridaprohibitedreten0onofGoliathscaughtinFloridawatersinFebruary,1990.TheCouncilstookthisac0onforfederalwatersinAugustandOctoberof1990
• Alifehistorystudy(Bullocketal.1992)wasconductedtocharacterizeage,growth,andmaturity.
-
A data workshop, two assessments, and an update • SEDAR 3 (March 2003)
– Data workshop concluded that data were insufficient to conduct a quantitative stock assessment, but survey data were subsequently discovered leading to the Review Panel recommending that an assessment should be attempted.
• SEDAR 6 (2006) – Review workshop only to consider Goliath Grouper and Hogfish
assessments. – First use of the “catch-free” model and relative benchmarks
• SEDAR 23 (2010) – Data, Assessment, and Review Workshops, catch-free model used – Review Panel rejected the assessment because it did not provide
absolute benchmarks (TORs)
• FWC update (2015) – Updated indices for the catch-free model.
• SEDAR 47 (2016) – in progress
-
Distribu0onofGoliaths
From Aquamaps
-
Gene0csofGoliaths• Thereisdocumenta0onofgene0cdifferencesbetweenGoliathsinBelizeandFlorida,andBrazilandFlorida.
• GoliathsinGulfofMexicoandtheSouthAtlan0cwatersbelongtoasinglestock.
• Tringalietal.(inmanuscript)recentlylookedatthegene0csofGoliathsinFloridaanddevelopedananalysisofkinshipforthisgroup.TheconclusionsfromthisanalysiswerethatGoliathsintheSouthAtlan0cfromtheFloridaKeysnorthwardwereverycloselyrelated.KinshipamongGoliathsonFlorida’sGulfCoastwaslessstructured.Addi0onalworkisplanned.
-
Data Inputs for the models
• Basic Life history parameters – Growth model (von Bertalannfy used, others possible) – Length-weight conversion equation – Natural mortality
• Indices of abundance • Selectivities for indices of abundance • Specification of time intervals to track changes in
fishing mortality • Specification of a prior for the effect of the
moratorium on harvest (catch-free) • Estimates of catch, landings, and releases (SRA)
-
Natural Mortality Estimates - examples
Gag(S10SA)Gag(S10G)RedG(S19)
RedG(S12)
SnowyG(S4)
BlackG(S19)
GoliathG(S6)
GoliathG(S23)MuttonS(S15A)
RedS(S15)RedS(S7)
GoliathG(S47)
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
20 30 40 50 60
Naturalm
ortalitype
ryear
Maximumage(years)
SEDARassessmentsHoenig(1983;fishonly)Hoenig(1983;alltaxa)Hoenig"lm"(Thenetal.2015)Hoenig"nls"(Thenetal.2015Hoenigalltaxa+biascorr
Thereareseveralvaria0onsforthe“Hoenig”es0matorfornaturalmortality.Thedataforthe“Hoenig”es0mateswerefromcatchcurves,sothesearereallytotalmortalityes0mates(Z)whichapproximateMwhenpopula0onsarelightlyfished.Treatthemas“upperbounds”onMratherthanabsolutevalues.
-
MaximumAgeofGoliaths–37years(but…)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Panamagraysbysailfingrouper
graysbyrockhind
orange-spottedgrouperyellowfingrouper
yellow-edgedlyretailredhind
humpbackgrouperislandgrouper
blacksaddledcoralgrouperscamp
sawtailgrouperleopardgrouper
flagcabrillaconey
warsawgrouperspeckledhind
potatogrouperwhite-blotchedgrouper
redgrouperNassaugroupermottledgrouper
camouflagegroupergag
blackgroupergoliathgrouper
brown-marbledgroupersnowygrouper
yellowmouthgrouperdogtoothgrouper
duskygrouperyellowedgegrouper
Maximumage(years)
Fig. 2.6.2
-
Growth Curves (von Bertalannfy, non-linear fits) Study L∞ (mm) k (year-1) t0 n Bullock et al. 1992 2006 0.126 -0.49 382 SEDAR 23 (and 47) 2220 0.094 -0.68 1405
Fig. 2.6.3
-
Length-weight Bullock et al. 1992 data
dep_var n ln(a) a b r2
gutted wt (kg) vs TL (mm) 402 -17.3423 2.94E-08 2.941 0.941
whole wt (kg) vs TL (mm) 66 -18.1507 1.31E-08 3.056 0.964
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
TotalLength(inches)
Who
leWeig
ht(lb
s)
Who
leWeig
ht(kg)
TotalLength(cm)
observedpredicted99%upperlimit99%lowerlimit
-
OtherTopics• Releasemortality–thoughttobelow(~5%)• Reproduc0vestrategy–assumedgonochoris0c.
Protogynysuspected.• Spawning–August-November,butchorusingac0vi0es
mayindicatethatac0vitybeginsinJuly.• Femalesmatureat:120-135cm,ages6-7
Malesmatureat:110-115cm,ages4-6• Fecundity–only2specimensworkedup.• Sexra0o–appearstobe1:1atanysize/age.• Spawningsitefidelitymaybehigh.• Juvenilesu0lizemangrovehabitatsinestuaries.• Adults/sub-adultsmoveoffshoretohigh-reliefhabitats
(andwrecksolenaHractmoreindividuals).
-
Length-frequencies
-
Reported U.S. commercial landings of Goliath Grouper
Fig. 3.1.1
U.S.BureauofCommercialFisheries,NMFSCommercialLandings,FloridaStateBoardofConserva=on,FLFishandWildlifeConserva=onCommission
-
Estimated U.S. recreational catch of Goliath Grouper. Most of the catch, particularly after 1989, was released.
Fig. 3.3.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Recreatio
nalTotalCatchofG
oliath
Group
ers(tho
usandsoffish)
Year
WestFlorida
EastFlorida
NMFSMarineRecrea=onalFisherySta=s=csSurvey,1981-2003,NMFSMarineRecrea=onalInforma=onProgram2004-2014
-
Es0ma0ngharvests• Commerciallandings:TheSRAmodelmaysolvebeHerusingalonger0meseriesofremovals.Weusedthe0meseriesbackto1950whichwaseasilyavailable.Therewasconcernoverreportsfromapar0cularseafooddealer,andwedevelopedadjustmentfactorstoreducetheinfluenceofthisdealer’sreportsfrom1978-1984,andtoreducetheinfluenceofthecountylandingsfrom1964-1977ontheFloridaWestCoast.
• Commercialdiscards:notes0mated.
-
Es0ma0ngharvests• Recrea0onalcatches:catchwasdividedbyareafished.
Juvenilefishliveinestuarinehabitatspar0cularlywheretherearemangroves.Larger,adultfisharetypicallyfoundoffshoreinareasofhighrelief,thoughtheymayalsobecaughtaroundbridgesandotherareastheyfindsuitable.
• Recrea0onallandingsbyarea(1981-1989):theavg.weightforestuarinefishusedtheobservedsizestructureintheEverglades.Avg.weightsforoffshorefishin1984-1988wereusedformissingweightdataortosubs0tuteforoutliers.
• Recrea0onalreleasesbyarea:Weightsofestuarinefishreleasedusedthees0matedjuvenilesizestructure.Adultsizestructureinthereleasedcatchisnotknown.Asmallsampleofagedfishfromaresearchstudywasusedasaproxy.A5%releasemortalitywasassumedinordertoes0matethispor0onoftheharvest.
-
Selec0vitycurvesforrecrea0onalcatches
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Prop
ortio
n
Age(years)
EvergladesNationalPark- gammafittoAgedspecimensfromKoenigetal.(2007)
andBrusherandSchull(2009)[a100=1.79,cv=0.495)
observedpredicted
a100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Freq
uency(%
)
Age(years)
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 5 10 15 20 25
Cumulativeprop
ortion
Age(years)
observedageproportionspredicted
a50 Logisticfittoobservedagesof22fishinspawningareasoff
PalmBeach,2012[a50=9.59,slope=1.342)
EstuarineFish
OffshoreFish
Figs.3.3.7,3.3.8,3.3.9
-
Es0matedTotalHarvest
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1970 1990 2010
CommercialLandingsa
nd
Recreatio
nalH
arvests(land
ings+
5%deadreleases),kg
Year
ReportedLandings+deadreleases(5%)
AdjustedLandings+deadreleases(5%)
Fig.3.4.1
-
Indices used in various assessments
Index SEDAR6 SEDAR23 FWCUpdate SEDAR47
DeMaria √
Interviews √
ENP √ √ √ √
REEFSE √ √ √
REEFSW √
REEF(both,GGGCadded) √
MRFSS(PR,%posi0ves) √
MRFSS(WFL,offshorebt) √
MRFSS(EFL,offshorebt) √
MRFSS(WFL,estuarine) √
MRFSS(EFL,estuarine) √
MRFSS(offshorebt) √
MRFSS(estuarine) √
Table 4.1.1
-
REEFIndex
openbluecircles:siteswithoutGoliathsyellowdots:siteswithGoliathsatleastonceinayear.
-
REEFIndex
Habitatdescrip0on
REEFHabitatCode Haba New_Habb
Unknown 0 0 0*Mixed 1 1 5Highprofilereef,coralstructures4'ormoreaboveboHom 2 2 2Lowprofilereef,coralstructures<4'aboveboHom 3 3 3Slopingdrop-offintoopenwater 4 1 3Wall-asheardrop-offofover25'facingopenwater 5 2 2Ledge-asingleorfewsharpdropsinboHomtopographyof3'ormore 6 2 2Seagrass 7 1 1Sand 8 1 1Rubble 9 1 1Ar0ficial 10 4 4Openwater 11 1 1
a re-classification of habitat score used for REEF SE index in SEDAR 6 and REEF SE and SW in SEDAR 23 b re-classification of habitat score used for REEF FL index in SEDAR 47b re-classification of habitat score used for REEF FL index in SEDAR 47
Classifica0onofhabitatsfortheREEFsurveys.
Table4.1.1
-
REEFIndexTable4.1.2b.NumberofREEFsiteswithsurveydatausingvariouscriteria.
1994-2014
Criteria EastFloridaandFloridaKeys WestFlorida
Allsites*with6ormoreyearsofsurveys 173 41
Allsites*with6-9yearsofsurveys 46 23
SEDAR23**sitesdropped(
-
REEFIndexTable4.1.2d.REEFsitesinWestFloridawhereGoliathGrouperhavebeenobservedatleastonceandwith6ormoreyearswheresurveyswererecordedoverthe1994-20140meperiod.Indexincludedsiteswith10ormoreyearswheresurveyswereconductedforthe1999-20140meperiod.
Yearssurveyedandmax.abundancerank2
AbundanceRanksandno.surveysbyrank
Loca0on REEFgeozone
yearswithsurveys1
Numberofsurveys
1 1 2 2 2 29 9 0 0 0 09 9 0 0 1 13 5 0 5 0 4
0:Noneseen
1:Oneseen
2:2-10seen
3:11-100seen
4:101+seen
La0tudeDD
LongitudeDD
BlackBart(PanamaCity) 21010008 9 33 ---0--1-0000-0-0-----1 30 3 0 0 0 30.0607 -85.8238BridgeSpan14(PanamaCity) 21010009 7 13 ---0--0--00--0-0-----2 11 1 1 0 0 30.0715 -85.8146MissLouiseTugboat(Des0n) 21010027 6 13 ------00-0-10-------0- 6 7 0 0 0 30.3717 -86.4215USSOriskany 21010060 8 21 -------------02000000- 20 0 1 0 0 30.0426 -87.0066ClearwaterWreck 23010007 12 45 ---1--0-2323211-10--1- 15 9 19 2 0 27.9532 -83.1217DunedinReef 23010009 6 9 --0-0-------------2100 6 2 1 0 0 28.0570 -82.9108CableBarge(akaIndianShores) 23010013 8 15 ----1-22210------1-1-- 8 4 3 0 0 27.8567 -83.0292MastheadLedge 23010014 7 14 ----0---001---01-0---- 11 3 0 0 0 28.0623 -83.1907TugSheridan 23010016 10 25 ----0---222-----221212 8 5 12 0 0 27.8760 -83.1863RubeAllen(Pinellas#1) 23010018 13 43 ----0-0-1221-22221-02- 19 11 13 0 0 27.9267 -83.0233
-
REEFIndexSource levels Df Deviance
MeanDeviance
ΔMeanDeviance
%change Cum%
FullLoglikelihood
Δloglikelihood
-2Δloglikelihood df ProbHo AIC AICc
intercept 1 21024 15090.0 0.7177 -9803.2 -9803.2 36125.1 21024
-
REEF index
Fig.4.1.1a,b
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Standardized
Inde
x
nominalranks
SEDAR47FL
SEDAR23SEFL
-
Abundance Index – Everglades National Park Angler Survey (hurdle model – binomial and lognormal submodels)
Variable dffulllog
likelihoodΔlog
likelihood Chi-sq Chi-sqdf ProbHo AIC ΔAIC deviance MeanDevΔMeanDev
%change
193,576 -29573.1 59,148.3 59146.30.3055Year 193,536 -26385.9 3187.2 6374.5 40
-
Abundance Index – Everglades National Park Angler Survey
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
010
2030
4050
Everglades National Park Angler Survey
Year
Gol
iath
Gro
uper
, Tot
al n
umbe
r cau
ght p
er 1
000
angl
er-h
ours
109
107
189
188
151
66117
9353 62 60
35 38 29 30
73
60 4721 98
241
210328
253146130
139198195
374388
346
534
735
459
284
29 2952 75
66109
107
189
18815166 117
9353626035382930
7360 4721
98241
210 328
253146130139
198195
374 3…
346
534
735
459
284
29295275
66
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Inde
xscaled
tom
ean
Year
EvergladesNationalParkAnglerSurveyStandardizedTotalCatchRatesofGoliathGrouperdeltamodel(binomialandlognormalsubmodels)
totaltrips=193,577
-
MRFSS/MRIP Index Estuarine Offshore
EastFlorida(Nassau-Miami-FLKeys)
WestFlorida(Collier-Levy)
EastFlorida(Nassau-Miami-FLKeys)
WestFlorida(Collier-Levy)
GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPERCOMMONSNOOK COMMONSNOOK GAG GAGGRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPERREDDRUM REDDRUM REDGROUPER REDGROUPERGAG GAG WHITEGRUNT WHITEGRUNTSPOTTEDSEATROUT SPOTTEDSEATROUT SPANISHMACKEREL SPANISHMACKERELCREVALLEJACK CREVALLEJACK COMMONSNOOK COMMONSNOOKLADYFISH LADYFISH CREVALLEJACK CREVALLEJACKPINFISH PINFISH SPOTTEDSEATROUT SPOTTEDSEATROUTHARDHEADCATFISH HARDHEADCATFISH BLUERUNNER BLUERUNNER
GAFFTOPSAILCATFISH LADYFISH LADYFISHSHEEPSHEAD SHEEPSHEAD LANESNAPPER LANESNAPPERSPANISHMACKEREL SPANISHMACKEREL REDDRUM REDDRUM
SCALEDSARDINE PINFISH PINFISHBLUEFISH COBIA COBIAPIGFISH KINGMACKEREL KINGMACKERELBLACKDRUM GREATBARRACUDA GREATBARRACUDA
YELLOWTAILSNAPPER YELLOWTAILSNAPPERMUTTONSNAPPERBLACKGROUPERTARPONNURSESHARKBLUEFISHSHEEPSHEAD
-
MRFSS/MRIP Index - Estuarine
Variable levels DF DevianceMeanDeviance
%deviancereduc0on
Cum%
FullLikelihood
Chi-Square
Chi-squareDF Pr>ChiSqAIC
1 108075 6502.3 0.06017 . -3251.15. . . 6504.3
year1 108058 6200.7 0.05738 4.62 4.6 -3100.34 301.6 17
-
MRFSS/MRIP Index - Estuarine
-
MRFSS/MRIP Index - Offshore
Deviancetableforthegammasub-modeloftheposi=vecatchesofGoliaths.
Deviancetableforthebinomialsub-modelofthepropor=onposi=vecatchesofGoliaths.
Variable levels DF DevianceMean
Deviance%deviancereduc0on Cum%
FullLikelihood
Chi-Square
Chi-squareDF Pr>ChiSq AIC
1 59841 4338.1 0.07249. -2169.03. . . 4340.1
year 1 59824 4190.0 0.07004 3.39 3.4 -2095.01 148.0 17
-
MRFSS/MRIP Index - Offshore
-
Theindicesscaledtotheirmeans
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IndexScaled
toM
ean
Year
ENP
MRFSS/MRIPEstuarine
0
1
2
3
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IndexScaled
toM
ean
Year
REEFFL
MRFSS/MRIPOffshore
EstuarineIndices
OffshoreIndices
Fig.4.4.1a,b
-
MRFSS Index, SEDAR 23
0
1
2
3
4
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Inde
xscaled
tom
ean
Year
Proportionpositivesfinalmodelvariables:year,mode_fx,num_anglers
-
MRFSS Index, FWC update (hurdle model)
0
1
2
3
4
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Indexscaledtom
ean
Year
Proportionpositivesfinalmodelvariables:year,mode_fx,num_anglers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Standardize
dCatchRates
Year
WFLoffshoreboatmodes
EFLoffshoreboatmodes
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Standardize
dCatchRates
Year
WFLestuarine
EFLestuarine
SEDAR 23 MRFSS Index, proportion positives
-
MRFSS Index comparison, FWC update
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Standardize
dCatchRates
Year
EvergladesNationalParkAnglerSurvey
MRFSS/MRIPWFLestuarine
MRFSS/MRIPEFLestuarine
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Standardize
dCatchRates
Year
MRFSS/MRIPWFLoffshoreboatmodes
MRFSS/MRIPEFLoffshoreboatmodes
REEFSEandFLKeyssites
DeMariaindex
-
MRFSS Index, replacement (combined coasts) 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Inde
xscaled
toM
ean
Year
EastFLandKeys
WestFlorida
Estuarine,combined
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Inde
xscaled
toM
ean
Year
EastFLandKeys
WestFlorida
Offshore,combined