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Moving from Impacts to Action:Actionable climate knowledge for risk
management and adaptation planning in EAP
Selvaraju RamasamyNatural Resources Officer
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO
The EAP region’s agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change
Map Source: FAO (2001)
• Climate of EAP region is diverse, with a wide range of temperature and precipitation variability
• Farming/food systems encompass lowland rice (river basins), upland intensive mixed (mountains), pastoral (arid deserts), artisanal fishing (coasts and small Islands)
• Heavy reliance on agriculture (~62%)
• High dependency on marine resources
• Limited agriculture infrastructure
• Monoculture in intensive farming systems threaten the sustainability– Lowland rice – 17% area; 42% agric.
population
Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing
• Quick-onset hazards are already affecting the production systems
(Storms in the Philippines, Viet Nam; temperature induced flash
floods in Mongolia; floods in Mekong; red river etc.,)
Webster et al. (2005)
Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing
First and last days of frost at Emerald
(2 degrees in the screen)
100
150
200
250
300
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
No. of days w ith >33° C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Fre
quency (
days)
• Area affected by slow-onset climate extremes (e.g. drought, dry and wet
spells) are expanding (e.g China, dzud in Mongolia, North East Thailand,
Central highlands and northern mountains of Viet Nam; ENSO associated
droughts in Indonesia, Philippines and Pacific Islands)
• Creeping changes in climate lead to crises in the future (e.g. changing rainfall
pattern, salinity intrusion in Mekong, seasonality, temperature increase and
associated length of growing period)
Demand - Supply mismatch• Demand for climate information is diverse:
– localized, timely and easily understandable
– matches diverse cropping systems and decision cycles
– Suitable for user needs – Policy makers, Institutions, Ag. service providers, irrigation managers, input suppliers, market intermediaries, local cooperatives, micro-financing, farmers, fisherman, livestock herders
– Climate, crop and livelihood data base
• Supply is often constrained by insufficient data and resolution
– Users often perceive that the information is general, data and technical terms not easy to understand
– Narrow, specific and precise information
– Fit the problem to the available tools and methods at hand
– scales of climate outlooks/scenarios and local agriculture decision making
Data and information flow in a generic climate change
impact assessment framework
Changes in extreme
weather events
Future water
availability
Difference in current
and future yield
distribution
(Biophysical impacts)
Crop growth
simulation
(Future)
National/regional
crop production
scenarios for
adaptation planning,
policy development
and investment
decisionsvulnerability
context and
socio-economics
Farm level yield
scenarios to
decide management
practices and
adaptation actions
at the local level
Climate
scenario
downscaling
climate
risk assessment
Future
weather data
Soil data
Crop data
Climate change
scenarios
Historical
weather data
Agronomic Management
Soil water balance
Soil nutrient balance
Weather, crop pest/
disease relationships
Future
technology trend
Crop growth
simulation
(Baseline)
Response to
CO2 change
Economic impacts
Interpretation and communication
of results
• In East Asia and the Pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13 percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4 percent for maize because of climate change
• “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” – John Maynard Keynes (1883 – 1946)
• Emphasis on past impacts, current climate variability as an entry point to build resilience (climate risk management approach for adaptation)
• Risk Management approach applies at all time scales
Climate science, data and information to advance actionable climate knowledge
Fo
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ime
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats
Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Prediction
Applications in Agriculture
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Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Weather
Climate Variability
Scenarios Climate Change.
Adapted from: NOAA
Decades
Centuries Uncertainty
Scenario Based Risk Typologies and optimal strategies
in agricultureF
req
uen
cy
Severity
Maximizing input
use efficiency
Optimal use of
resources
Resource protection
and Sustainable
natural resource
management
Enterprise
diversification and
risk coping
mechanisms
Response to save lives
and livelihoods;
promote alternate
livelihood activities
Strengthening social
capital and
community networks
Response to save lives
and livelihoods and
rehabilitation
Transient
livelihood
options
Emergency response
and rebuilding
livelihood resources
Catastrophic
risk insurance
Farm level risk
insurance, safety
nets, risk sharing
mechanisms
Minor Serious Extensive catastrophic
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High Emergency
relief and
rehabilitation
Role of climate knowledge for risk management and adaptation planning
Reduce Vulnerability
and Enhance
Adaptive CapacityManaging
Climate Risks
(Climate/Weather
information for
decision making)
Integration of
climate change
perspectives
into food
and agriculture
Flow of input and
communication
Climate Impacts,
Risks and Vulnerabilities
and Baselines
Cross-cutting actions:• capacity building
• gender inclusion
• coordination and
communication
• partnerships, awareness
raising and advocacy
Gaps in climate monitoring infrastructure and data collection networks, arrangements for data
sharing…
Policy relevant climate information
• Climate risk and impact ‘hotspot’ (critical zones) and Adaptation Areas of Concern (AOCs) – medium range forecasting (5 –10 years) of impacts and vulnerabilities
• Changing boundaries and crop suitability zoning (e.g winter wheat in high latitudes)
• Seasonal patterns of risks and impacts in agriculture and food security (e.g ENSO outlooks and associated impacts; crop yield forecasting)
Localized climate services for farmers.
Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information
Historical climate data
Historical climate impact data
analysis of climate
related risks and
vulnerabilities and
adaptive options
Socio-economic data
resources and land use
local coping strategies
local rules of thumb
local context
and community
objectives and
local
perceptions
on the ground
decision
making with
clients
information flow on
weather and crop
phenology/ crop stages
information flow on local situation and
community perception on risks and
vulnerabilities
communication of
impact outlooks
and management
advisories
feedback from
the clients
Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information
Historical climate data
Historical climate impact data
analysis of climate
related risks and
vulnerabilities and
adaptive options
Socio-economic data
resources and land use
local coping strategies
local rules of thumb
local context
and community
objectives and
local
perceptions
on the ground
decision
making with
clients
information flow on
weather and crop
phenology/ crop stages
information flow on local situation and
community perception on risks and
vulnerabilities
communication of
impact outlooks
and management
advisories
feedback from
the clients
Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information
Historical climate data
Historical climate impact data
analysis of climate
related risks and
vulnerabilities and
adaptive options
Socio-economic data
resources and land use
local coping strategies
local rules of thumb
local context
and community
objectives and
local
perceptions
on the ground
decision
making with
clients
information flow on
weather and crop
phenology/ crop stages
information flow on local situation and
community perception on risks and
vulnerabilities
communication of
impact outlooks
and management
advisories
feedback from
the clients
Managing Climate Risks by Incorporating Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making
• Prioritize information needs of vulnerable groups
• Enhance use of existing forecast products
• Customize extended range forecasts – intra-seasonal and seasonal
• Train agriculture services to interpret and prepare localised impact outlooks and management alternatives
• Implement reliable communication strategies to reach the end users– Climate Field Schools
– Farmer Participatory Climate Workshops
– Climate Information Centres
– Village Knowledge Centres
– Discussion Support Software
Expanding the coverage of early warning and
climate information
Weather website
Telephone
Early-warning dissemination
platform
Rural meteorological
broadcast
Electronic screen for meteorological
early warning TV weather forecasting
Newspapers
Mobile phone
Information Provision and Feedback
FG
FG
FG
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FGHub
Institutional partnerships, knowledge sharing and communication
Agriculture Extension Service and Farmer Service Agencies
Agro-meteorological services and Agrl.
Research Institutes
International/Regional Climate Centres Regional and National Climate
Outlook Forums
Data and Information in Public Domain
Ministry of Agriculture and other
relevant line ministries
National Hydro-meteorological Centres
Data and Information
Interpretation
Impact Outlooks
Management Plans and Localized Climate Responsive
Adaptation Practices
Smallholder Farmers and Local Institutions, Community Based Organizations (Farmer
Groups, Cooperatives, Farmer Associations, Local Networks etc.,)
Key interventions
Institutionalizing climate forecast application in agriculture:
Indonesian Experience
Institutional proclivity and evolution
• The directorate of crop protection was created in 1972
• In mid-1980s there was a shift in mandate
• After El Nino 1997, the impacts of climate variability on crop production became a major concern
• The Ministry of Agriculture included CRM within pest analysis and disaster division under the directorate of food crops protection from 2001.
• In 2005 a separate division of Climate Analysis and Mitigation was formed
Risk Management Actions at local level
• At the district level IPM schools are converted into climate field schools
• Farmer cooperatives consider climate information as integral part of their decision
• BMG revisited the climate zones and provides customized forecasts to many districts
Subbiah and Selvaraju (2006) in Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and
Challenges – A WMO CLIMAG book
Climate Services for sustainable intensification in
Northern Mountain regions of Viet Nam
• The northern mountain region often is affected by climate risks such as drought (winter – spring); whirlwind, flood and flash flood and inundation (summer – autumn)
• Agriculture services promote hybrid rice cultivation in the region
• Climate information plays a key role to support optimal allocation of land area for hybrids and varieties
• Efforts to enhance the use of climate information for stabilizing productivity of hybrid rice
– Delineation of areas suitable for hybrid rice cultivation based on climate related hazard and vulnerability
– Training provincial and district DART officials to prepare impact outlooks and management alternatives
– Climate information considered to advance community based disaster risk management
Improved climate and flood forecasting in Bicol
region of the Philippines
• The region is prone to flash floods, typhoons, water stagnation, drought and landslides
• Characterized by type II climate
• Between 2000 – 2009, 28 tropical cyclones crossed the region and damaged billions of pesos worth of agriculture infrastructure
• Use of climate information for risk management and adaptation
– Strengthening monitoring infrastructure at the Barangai level maintained by Barangay captains (9 automated raingagues)
– Capacity of department of agriculture (DA), disaster managers, local community organizations to interpret climate information and prepare impact outlooks
– Setting up of communication system for delivery of information on time (SMS message exchange between the PAGASA regional office and Baragay captains)
Institutional arrangements and channels of communication for early warning, weather and climate information products
DA Regional
Directorate
SLPRSD/
PAGASA
SS
AGMET
BRS
AWS
AWS
AWS
SS
SS
SS
BRS
BRS
BRS
BRS
BRS
BRS
BRS
AGMET
AGMET
Provincial
Agriculturist
PDMC
Municipal
Agriculturist
MDMC
Agriculture
Technologist
BDMC
FG FG FGF F F
Synthesis and
processing dataClimate Unit
PAGASA
Manila
Opportunities and challenges for enhancing climate services for agriculture in EAP
• An effective information flow system from information providers to users is feasible within the existing institutional systems
• However, an end-to-end institutional feedback mechanisms need to be established
• Such application require significant monitoring infrastructure, database and capacity building efforts at various levels
• Institutionalization of the climate information application system is a key challenge
• On the positive side, ENSO association with rainfall and agriculture has been explained significantly
• Significant developments in converting uncertainties to action at local level
• Demonstration pilot studies showed significant benefit
• Regional and inter-national institutions are active in the field and establishing partnership to learn lessons is prerequisite