SEP Forecast Product:Data Description Only
Arik Posner1,2
(1) Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX
(2) currently at NASA/HQ, SMD-Heliophysics Div., Washington, DC
Research 2 Operations Workshop
10/16/2007 at CCMC/GSFC
Data Product
Forecasting Matrix
Pairs of Relativistic Electron Parameters (Slope, momentary Flux) Define Locus in Matrix
Color Coding from +1 Hour Proton Intensity
Incorporates All Data from 1996-2002
Tested in 2003-2007 Forecasting
2003-2007
24 Proton Events beyond Threshold
10/11 Prompt Events Forecast (91%) with 122 min
average warning time
9/13 Delayed Events Forecast (69%)
Overall: 79%, 195 min average warning time
13 False Warning Series (10 from Decreases)
False SEP Warning:
Forecast Proton Flux Factor ~100 Above Measured Flux
Series of flares/CMEs in March 17/18, 2003
Characteristics: Small, Well-connected, Short-duration Events
Cause: System (Matrix) is Calibrated Toward Long-lasting, More Intense
Events
Impact: Low, Most Events Remain Under Threshold Value, Could Cause
Problems if Threshold has to be Lowered
X1.5 Flare
W39
Peak at 19:05UT
SOHO/EIT 03/17/2003
Forecasting Output Data Description
Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5
Year Files; no Header, 1-min Resolution
30-50 MeV Proton Intensity [cm2 sr s MeV]-1
R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc
Forecasting Output Data Description
Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5
Data Gaps (Status=0)
R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc
Forecasting Output Data Description
Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5
Ramp after Data Gap (Status=1, no Electron Increase Parameter)
R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc
Forecasting Output Data Description
Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5
Entries with Forecast (Status=1, all Parameters)
R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc
Yearly Proton Flux Files
Day of Year Minute (Beg. Interv.)
Hour Forec. Prot. Int.
301 12 20 0.27523988
301 12 22 0.26133415
301 12 24 0.16526318
301 12 26 0.55599725
301 12 28 0.75050759
301 12 30 1.5127839
301 12 32 3.1351316
301 12 34 3.5216093
301 12 36 4.1761026
Data Entries: Date (Year in Filename), Proton Flux [cm2 sr s MeV]-1
Note: Entries in 2-min Resolution
flux_p_30_50_YYYY.asc