Download - Sheila Walsh Reddy The Nature Conservancy
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Sheila Walsh ReddyThe Nature Conservancy
Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation
Growing business risk….
(KPMG 2011)
1. Climate Change2. Energy & Fuel3. Material Resource Scarcity4. Water Scarcity5. Population Growth6. Urbanization7. Wealth8. Food Security9. Ecosystem Decline10.Deforestation
Sources:1. U.S. Congress, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bills – HR 4939, PL 109-234 and HR 3673, PL 109-62 (2005), 2. Draft Comprehensive Coast-wide Ecosystem Restoration Study, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, October 2003
…..and business opportunities.
Sustainably managing ecosystems makes economic sense. (MEA 2005)
Hurricane Katrina$110 billionrelief fund 1
$14 billionrestoration 2
Need Tools To Measure Missing Assets and Liabilities
$
Manufactured Capital
Natural Capital
(Photo credit: Jen Molnar, Wikicommons)
Human Capital
Growing conservation challenges…..
TNC 1955
……global conservation needs partnerships.
TNC 2013: priority areas
TNC Lands (USA)
Nature Conservancy-Dow Collaboration
To find ways for companies to incorporate the value of nature
into business decisions.
Jennifer Molnar
TNC-Dow Pilot site analyses
Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
Freeport, Texas
Santa Vitória, Brazil
• Air quality via reforestation
• Coastal protection • Freshwater supply
• Agricultural supply chain
Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation
Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
Hypothesis:Understanding the role of coastal habitats in storm protection will improve levee design and reduce costs, especially in the face of sea level rise
The Problem
Global Losses from Natural Hazards are Increasing
Billi
ons U
S$
The Opportunity
Ecosystems May Mitigate Losses
Natural and Built Infrastructure
And?Or?
Salt marsh Levee or Sea wall
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Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation
Valuation for Corporate Coastal Hazard Mitigation
Natural Hazard Mitigation
Economic Costs and Benefits to
Business and Public
Levees
Additional Benefits
(e.g. Recreation)
Biodiversity
Habitat
Scenario Comparisons
Coastal Habitat LeveeCoastal Habitat +Levee Designed for Coastal Habitat
Methods: Overview
• Model future land cover with sea level rise, development
• Identify levee design for 100 yr storm• Analyze flood and damages from Cat 1-5 storms• Compare avoided damages• Assess other public and ecosystem benefits• Evaluate opportunities to enhance/protect
values
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Sea Level Rise and Decreasing Marsh Habitat
35% decrease in marsh9% decrease in marsh
Current 2050, 0.57 m sea level rise 2100, 1.29 m sea level rise
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Sea Level Rise and Marsh Loss Increases Risk from a 100 yr Storm in 2050
0.6 m Sea Level Rise
12% Higher Floods
9% Higher Levee Costs
Mitigating Effect of Habitat
1% Lower Floods
1% Lower Levee Costs
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Small Private and Large Public Benefits from Habitat
• Habitat for >200 Species
• Habitat for 12 Fisheries
• Carbon Sequestration - Negative in long-term
Additional Habitat Values:
*Chart not to scale
*
Restoration May Maintain/Improve Benefits
Restored Dry Lands
c
Other Potential Opportunities for Coastal Protection?
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c
Outcomes
The Value of Information for Risk Management
Science:Link ecological change
to business value
Business method: Ability to value missing
assets
Inform Conservation/
Business Priorities:When do marshes have
significant protective values?
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Science:Link ecological change
to business value
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Business method: Ability to value missing
assets
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Inform Conservation/
Business Priorities:When do marshes have
significant protective values?
Acknowledgments• TNC-Sustainability Science: Sheila Walsh (co-lead), Tim
Boucher, Jon Fisher, Anthony Rogers, Alex Maas, Jen Molnar• Dow: Doug Whipple (co-lead), Daniel Ramirez, John DiMuro,
Judy Gunderson• TNC-TX: Jorge Brenner, Michael Thompson• Natural Capital Project: Greg Guannel, Rob Griffin, Joe Faries,
Joey Bernhardt, Greg Verutes, Spencer Wood, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Anne Guerry
• TNC-Global Marine: Mike Beck, Chris Shepard• Warren Pinnacle Consulting: Jonathon Clough, Marco Propato,
Amy Polaczyk• AIR: Akshay Gupta, Andrew Kao• Funding: Dow Chemical Company Foundation
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Extra Slides
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Landcover Change
Value of nature
Company
Jennifer Molnar
Public
Ecosystems
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Hybrid and Levee Infrastructure Scenarios Provide Similar Levels of Private Protection