Measuring the Public Health Impacts of Air Pollu8on in Minnesota
Naomi Shinoda Minnesota Department of Health Chronic Disease and Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Public Health Tracking and Biomonitoring
Fine par)cle pollu)on: PM2.5
PM2.5 pyramid of health effects
Death
Hospital admissions
Emergency room visits
Doctor visits
Asthma aBacks, medica)on use, symptoms
Lung func)on changes, immune cell responses, heart rate variability
responses
Air pollu)on epidemiology studies
¥ Health impacts are measurable
¥ Large body of evidence – PM2.5
¥ Respiratory and cardiovascular effects
¥ Effects observed even at low concentra)ons
¥ Long-‐term effects à increased risk
¥ Short-‐term effects à triggering/exacerba)ons
Air pollu)on affects en)re popula)ons
¥ Suscep)ble popula)on is growing
¥ Aging popula)on
¥ Increasing obesity, diabetes rates
¥ Effects observed in children
¥ Lung development
¥ Asthma exacerba)ons
¥ Even very small increases associated with disease and death
2004
2009
Obesity in MN
Source: MN Pollu)on Control Agency
AQI: Number of unhealthy air days in MN
Popula)ons “at risk”: es)mated numbers
Duluth MN-‐WI es8mates Total popula)on 235,600 Children under 18 47,900 Adults 65+ 37,100 Pediatric asthma 3,300 Adult asthma 14,000 Chronic bronchi)s 8,300 Emphysema 3,900 Cardiovascular 65,400 Diabetes 13,600
Source: ALA State of the Air 2012
Improving air, preven)ng deaths
¥ BenMAP modeled predic)ons
¥ Air quality improvement scenarios
¥ Es)mated number of prevented deaths
¥ Scenario: 10% reduc)on in PM2.5 concentra)ons
5
4
78 (MSP metro)
MN (2006)
Source: CDC Environmental Public Health Tracking
Air pollu)on and health research in MN
¥ Method development project using local data ¥ Develop methods for local area analyses
¥ Track health effects associated with changes in air quality ¥ PM2.5 concentra)ons ¥ Hospitaliza)ons and deaths (respiratory, cardiovascular)
¥ 2003-‐2009 data ¥ MSP metro and Olmsted County
Air pollu)on and health research in MN
Hospitaliza8ons Amount aOributable to PM2.5 in 2003-‐2009 Percent # hosp. per year
Total respiratory 1.9% 224
COPD + asthma 2.3% 110 Asthma 2.3% 54
¥ Associa)ons found in the MSP metro for PM2.5 and respiratory hospitaliza)ons
MN air pollu)on reduc)on ini)a)ves
¥ Minnesota Emissions Reduc)on Project (MERP)
¥ Diesel retrofits ¥ School buses; heavy duty public vehicles ¥ Project Green Fleet
¥ Other local ini)a)ves ¥ An)-‐idling ordinances ¥ Go Greener Ini)a)ve (Met Council)
¥ Na)onal ini)a)ves ¥ Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Rule ¥ Heavy Duty Diesel Regula)ons ¥ Transport Rule
Source: MN Pollu)on Control Agency
MN air pollu)on health impacts over )me
Hospitaliza8ons Time period Amount aOributable to PM2.5
Percent # hosp./yr
Total respiratory 2003-‐2005 2006-‐2007 2008-‐2009
3.0% 2.6% -‐-‐
354 309 -‐-‐
COPD + asthma 2003-‐2005 2006-‐2007 2008-‐2009
3.3% 2.9% -‐-‐
154 140 -‐-‐
Asthma 2003-‐2005 2006-‐2007 2008-‐2009
3.8% -‐-‐ -‐-‐
92 -‐-‐ -‐-‐
¥ MSP metro: decline in resp. hosp. aBributable to PM2.5
Summary
¥ Air pollu)on affects health even at low levels
¥ Air pollu)on affects en)re popula)ons
¥ A growing number of Minnesotans more suscep)ble to air quality impacts
BUT…
¥ MN has been making improvements in air quality
¥ Con)nued efforts will lead to a healthier MN
Project Team MN Pollu8on Control Agency
Greg PraO
Kari Palmer
Margaret McCourtney
Cassie McMahon
Lisa Herschberger
Olmsted Medical Center
Barbara Yawn
Peter Wollan
Measuring the Impact of Fine Par)cles: hBp://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/hpcd/cdee/airquality.html
MN Dept. of Health
Jean Johnson
Chuck Stroebel
Allan Williams
Naomi Shinoda
Wendy Brunner
Paula Lindgren