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Simulating Southern Ocean Dynamics in Coupled Climate
ModelsScott Doney
(WHOI)
In collaboration with:Ivan Lima (WHOI)Keith Moore (UCI)
Keith Lindsay (NCAR)Irina Marinov (U. Penn) CCSM-3 BGC core group
Supported by:
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Ocean Climate Responses & Feedbacks
CHANGING CLIMATEHigher atmosphere CO2, altered ocean properties sea-ice & circulation BIODIVERSITY
BIOGEOGRAPHYPHYSIOLOGY ECOSYSTEMS
Food webs, energy flow
BIOGEOCHEMISTRYCarbon & nutrient fluxes, CO2 & other greenhouse gases
OCEAN CO2 SINKOcean acidification
ECOSYSTEM SERVICESFisheries, tourism, shore protection, …
Doney et al. Deep-Sea Res. II 2009
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Ocean Climate Responses & Feedbacks
CHANGING CLIMATEHigher atmosphere CO2, altered ocean properties sea-ice & circulation BIODIVERSITY
BIOGEOGRAPHYPHYSIOLOGY ECOSYSTEMS
Food webs, energy flow
BIOGEOCHEMISTRYCarbon & nutrient fluxes, CO2 & other greenhouse gases
OCEAN CO2 SINKOcean acidification
ECOSYSTEM SERVICESFisheries, tourism, shore protection, …
OCEAN MITIGATIONOcean iron fertilization, direct CO2 injection
Doney et al. Deep-Sea Res. II 2009
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“IPCC-class” Coupled Climate Models
Flux Coupler
Sea-Ice Model
OceanGCM
Land Surface Model
Atmosphere GCM
-energy and mass conserving-internally driven climate variability-external climate perturbations (e.g., fossil fuel CO2)
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Climate Models to Earth System Models
IPCC 3rd Assessment circa 2000
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Future Climate Projections
Major uncertainties:-CO2 emissions (social, political, economic, geological)-atmospheric CO2 (carbon sinks, climate-carbon feedbacks)-climate sensitivities (clouds, water vapor)
IPCC (2007)
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OpportunitiesCoupled dynamics & modes - atm.-ocean-sea icePast & future projections - extend beyond reanalysisCarbon-climate feedbacks - major source of uncertaintyEcological impacts - climate & acidificationFlagship computations - computer resources, multi-model ensemblesChallengesCoarse resolution - at best eddy-permittingInternal variability - statistical matching with dataCoupled systems - large regional errorsSimplified biology - lower trophic levels
“IPCC-class” Climate Models
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Strength of Ocean CO2 Sink Sensitivity to Climate Warming
20 years of current carbonemissions
Coupled Model Uncertainties
Friedlingstein et al. J Climate 2006
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Thornton et al. Biogeosci. Disc. 2009
Canthro-obs CFC-obs
Model Bias
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productivity
Sarmiento et al., Global Biogeo. Chem. (2004)
-stratification alters mixed layer depth (light) and nutrient supply-primary productivity lower in subtropics, higher in subpolar gyres & polar regions
Nutrient
Light
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Moore et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2004); Doney et al. J. Mar. Sys. (2009)
“Green-Ocean” ModelsMultiple nutrients & phytoplankton functional groups
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“RMS Interannual Variability” “Decadal Trends” (20 years)
21st CenturyTemperature
Atttribution & Detection
Boyd et al Biogeosc. 2008
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Bopp et al Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005
Diatom IndexPrimary Production
Marinov et al (in prep)
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Climate Change & Biological Response in Ice Biome
Nut
r
Chl
ophy
ll
Diatoms Small Phytoplankton
Pro
duct
ion
Chl
ophy
ll
Pro
duct
ion
Abu
ndan
ce
Abu
ndan
ce
Nut
rient
s
Nut
rient
s
Ligh
t
Ligh
t
Stra
tific
atio
n
Stra
tific
atio
n
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Winter Mixed Layer Depth
Doney et al. J. Mar. Systems 2009
Schneider et al. Biogeosci. 2008
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Rising CO2 also leads to ocean acidification threatening shell-forming plants and animals
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Aragonite Saturation State
Steinacher et al. Biogeosciences 2009
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CMIP5 (IPCC 5th Assessment)
-Decadal Predictionhigh resolution AOGCMs (~50km) initialized for near-term climate change over next 30 years
-Earth System Models (ESMs)with coupled carbon cycle and intermediate resolution (~200km) to study longer term feedbacks
The new paradigm for coupled climate models
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(Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer, and G.A. Meehl, 2009: A summary of the CMIP5 Experimental Design. http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ )
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-Skill of model physical projections? •Base-state and historical trends•Mixed layer depth, upwelling, sea-ice
-Magnitudes of biogoechemical feedbacks?•Carbon storage & trace gases•Climate/carbon mitigation
-Biological sensitivities & resilience to change in temperature, sea-ice, circulation & CO2?
•Thresholds, multiple-stressors & trophic mismatch
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-Enhanced SO observing system •Oxygen, nutrient & carbon sensors/platforms •Mixed layer depth, stratification & upwelling•Biological rates & community composition
-Modelling advances & opportunities•Nested high-resolution regional atm-ocean models•Model-data skill metrics (NOAA CPT, MAREMIP, J. Mar. Systems, 2009, Vol. 76, Issue 1-2)•Biological food-web & impact models (embedded or one-way nested; physics data requirements?)
-Biological time-series & process studies•Multi-stressor experiments (ocean acidification, nutrients, trace metals, temperature)•Targeted process studies (lab & field)•Cross-ecosystem comparisons
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More Positive Southern Annular ModeReduced SH Sea-Ice
1980-2000 2080-2100
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J. Marine Systems Special Issue onSkill Assessment for Coupled Biological /
Physical Models of Marine SystemsVol. 76, Issue 1-2, 2009
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• Subtropical gyres: Climate change decreases NO3 supply to the ocean surface, total Chl and Primary Production.
• Ice Biomes: Climate change increases light supply to phytoplankton, increasing total Chl and Primary Production
Total Chlorophyll
Total Primary production max. mixed layer depth
future - present stratification
Marinov et al. (in prep)
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- Increased stratification over most of the ocean- Less change in Southern Ocean stratification, because of the counteracting impact of stronger winds
stratification 200) - 0)
max. mixed layer depth max. mixed layer depth
future - present stratification
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Separate ecological biomes (based on physical principles)
Ice biome
Subpolar
Equatorial
Subtropical (permanent + seasonal)
LL Upwelling
* technique as in Sarmiento et al. 2004