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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Based on a Report by Steve Thomas, Paul Dorfman, Sean
Morris, M V Ramana
Climate Crisis - Why Nuclear is Not Helping
Global 2000,Vienna, 2019
Dr Paul Dorfman
UCL Energy Institute
University College London
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Nuclear reactor history: ‘bigger is better’
• All past and current large Generation III nuclear reactor
design based on ‘bigger is better’ concept.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Economies of scale
• Nuclear went bigger to achieve economies of scale.
• It’s cheaper to build one 1.2GW unit than a dozen 100MW
units.
• The same for wind power - one of the main reasons why
offshore wind costs have come down is the move to larger
wind turbines.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
But large Gen III reactors (1000+MW+) too
complex, too expensive and require too much
site-work
• EDF EPR, Westinghouse AP1000, KEPCO APR1400, CGN
CNNC HPR-1.
• High-risk projects with significant delay and delay claims,
cost growth and investor risk.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
So, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Main SMR designs
• Defined by IAEA as <300MWe.
• Two categories: Scaled down LWRs & non-LWRs (Gen IV).
• LWRs seen as maybe available sooner.
• Non-LWRs a mixture of design-build, but with poor record.
• HTGRs & sodium FBRs, lead-cooled and molten salt
reactors all have ‘issues’.
• Non-LWRs generally require ‘advances in materials’ to be
technically viable.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Light Water reactors (LWRs)
• NuScale (US), Rolls Royce (UK), Holtec SMR-160 (US),
KAERI (South Korea), CAREM (Argentina).
• Shelved designs: Westinghouse, GE-Hitachi BWRX-300,
B&W mPower.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Non-LWR SMRs
• China building 2 Pebble Bed reactors, but severely delayed and failed badly in South Africa.
• GE-Hitachi PRISM was under consideration in UK to ‘burn’ Pu stocks. But UK found: ‘A major research and development programme would be required, indicating a low level of technical maturity for the option with no guarantee of success.’
• ARC-100: some interest in New Brunswick.
• Molten Salt reactors: Terrestrial IMSR & Moltex SSR: some interest in Canada.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
SMR concept assumptions
• Lower costs and shorter construction times per reactor
makes project finance easier.
• Lost scale economies to be replaced by modular
production-line.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
SMR concept assumptions
• SMRs built as factory-made modules, assembled on-site.
• SMRs built in clusters of up to 12 reactors.
• Safety requirements less stringent: smaller evacuation
zones.
• The talk is all about 'creating a technology base', 'building
skills' and 'creating high-tech jobs’, which 'input into the
economy'.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
But there are significant doubts about the
SMR concept
• SMRs will be more expensive than large reactors per KW/hr (kilowatt hour) - the key parameter.
• Significant government subsidy would be needed.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
SMR concept won’t work
• The idea is that 'modular' (ie a factory run) will sort things
out, is misplaced.
• In order to build modular capacity you need a very full order
book – many hundreds of SMRs.
• In order to get a full order book you need to demonstrate
that SMRs already work and can be produced on time and
on cost.
• This can’t happen until a significant number of orders are
placed - a circular dilemma.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Catch-22
• Modular production-line mistakes lead to generic defects
that propagate through an entire fleet of reactors and are
costly to fix (safety anomalies at Le Creusot / EDF steam
generators).
• Experience with construction of modular parts for the
nuclear industry has been troubling.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Investment risk
• Hugely expensive task to 'tool up' to create modular
assembly lines.
• So investment will be needed for an entire supply chain to
replace economies of scale with economies of replication.
• This means SMR investment risk is very significant.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Radioactive waste
• SMRs produce exactly the same rad-waste as conventional
reactors per KWh.
• Same safety and security problems.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Beyond design-base cascading
accidents
• For ‘Beyond-design base’ cascading accidents - multiple,
diverse and highly reliable active back-up systems are
needed.
• Complex back-up design is not compatible with small,
compact, stripped-down design of the SMRs currently under
consideration. • SMR containment designs mean a coupling of core and the
containment: negative safety consequences - as became
clear with Fukushima Daiichi.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Proliferation
• SMRs to developing nations can give 'breakout potential' for
proliferation.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Traditional reactor vendors abandoning work
except where large public subsidies offered
• SMR deployment time-scales appear unrealistic.
• Industry predictions about developing SMR markets have
never been fulfilled.
• Ironically these predictions also came from institutions who
promoted very optimistic cost estimates for the stalled
'Nuclear Renaissance'.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
‘Skeumorphism’
• ‘When an old technology attempts to clothe itself
superficially, in showy attributes of its incoming successor’.
• Flint blades did this when bronze came in: acquiring
unsuitable pretend ‘casting seams’.
• SMRs are unsuited for new optimal renewable and smart-
networked energy efficient infrastructures.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Do the maths
• UK Offshore wind now: £40 per MWh.
• Viable with no subsidy.
• What’s the use of SMR nuclear even at a very optimistic
£60-80 per MWh?
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Renewable evolution
• Investing in nuclear power is uneconomic - this holds for all
plausible ranges of investment costs, weighted average
cost of capital, and wholesale electricity prices.
• Renewable energy has both lower investment costs and
lower generation costs than nuclear.
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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTEUCL ENERGY INSTITUTE
Energy Transition
• Expansion of renewable energy in all sectors.
• Rapid growth and modernisation of electricity grids.
• Improvements in energy efficiency, the use of modern
technologies to minimise electricity consumption.
• Rapidly enhanced storage technologies.
• Market innovations from supply to service provision.
• Restructuring of the built and transport environments.
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Thank You
Dr Paul Dorfman
www.ucl.ac.uk/energy