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Influencers! Old is new again
Professor Matthew Kushin, PhDShepherd University | Department of Mass Communication | 2012
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I. Media’s limited effects:“The People’s Choice”
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Paul Lazarsfeld Studied election campaign of 1940
Erie County, Ohio Field Experiment
1-time In-person Interview Panels
Repeated interviews May - Nov
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Paul Lazarsfeld Focus:
Changes in voting decisions among public What causes those changes? What’s the media’s role in them?
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Lazarsfeld’s 4 Types of changes Early Deciders
Chose a candidate in May & never changed mind.
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4 Types of Changes Waverers
Chose 1 candidate then became undecided or switched, but came back to initial choice when voting
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4 Types of Changes Converts
Chose 1 candidate but switched to vote for opposing candidate
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4 Types of Changes Crystallizers
Had no candidate in May but decided by November Voting choice was predictable based on characteristics
Religion Where they lived Political party affiliation
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Hypotheses If media has strong effects, Lazarsfeld could
hypothesize: H1: Most voters will be influenced by media causing
them to be wavers or converts H2: People who changed the most should have been
greatest users of media
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Study’s Findings Most people never changed opinions
Early Deciders & Crystalizers Those who changed their minds were not
influenced by media Low media use Report being influenced by others
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Study’s Conclusion Media’s main role:
Reinforce a voter’s candidate choice Activate predispositions
Party loyalties, political ideologies, religious affiliations
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What is the possible connection here?
Heavy media users tended to be: Early-deciders
Light media users Heavily reliant on others for information Late deciders or converts
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Connection Hypothesized:
Maybe the heavy users are the same people who the more apathetic voters relied on These heavy users may be knowledgeable & respected
people the apathetic voter looks up to Rather than being influenced by media, the heavy
user gains knowledge as ammunition to: back up their own opinion Influence others
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II. Two-Step Flow
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Two-Step Flow Messages pass from media to leaders. From leaders to many followers.
OpinionLeader
sOpinion
Followers
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Two Step Flow Opinion leaders and followers are alike in their
social status Opinion leaders – more socially active, greater
media users, gregarious
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Influencers: “Brand Evangelists” Not everyone on social media is equal in terms of
influenceBLOGGER TWEETER
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Two Step
This Idea? Not New!
Opinion Leaders
Opinion Followe
r
Opinion Followe
r
Opinion Followe
r
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Diffusion of Innovation Like the 2-step flow
Mass Media – Primary role to create awareness and knowledge about innovation
Interpersonal networks –Decision to adopt is highly influenced by discussion w/ peers who already adopted or rejected innovation.
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Diffusion Asks: Why do some new ideas become adopted and
others don’t?
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Diffusion Focus:
How new information becomes widely adopted States:
New ideas pass through a set of predictable stages
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Diffusion Stages Media makes people aware of new idea Early adopters adopt innovation Early adopters influence opinion leaders who
adopt innovation Opinion leaders influence opinion followers Almost everyone has adopted
Some people lag behind
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5 Adopter Types Classification of individuals by rate of adoption:
Innovators – venturesome; eager to try new ideas Early adopters – respectable localites; high degree
of opinion leadership within social system Early majority – interact frequently w/ peers but
seldom hold leadership positions (Cont’d next slide)
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Late majority – skeptical; often adopt because of economic need or pressure from others
Laggards – Resist/reject. Oriented to past & tradition.
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Typical Adopter Curve
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Diffusion over Time
Innovation take-off
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Change Agents professional who attempts to influence adoption
decisions in a direction he/she feels desirable Influences:
Early adopters Opinion leaders
PR folks are 1 type of changeagent
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“Birds of a feather” Degree to which pairs of individuals who interact
are: Homophily - similar in certain attributes
High homophily b/w opinion leader & followers Heterophily –different
High heterophily between change agent and potential adopters
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Path Change agents:
Often use local opinion leaders to assist in diffusion: to bridge heterophily gap using opinion leaders wide influence over others
Change Agent or Mass Media
Opinion Leader
Like-minded Follower
Like-minded Follower
Like-minded Follower
heterophily
homophily
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Digital Influence
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What’s your score? If you have a Klout, Kred, or PeerIndex score –
load it up so we can see it!
If you don’t: Goto: Tweetreach.com and type in your address.
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What is digital influence? 1. Reach: The number of followers online 2. Voice: Number of posts in a given time period 3. Calculated as a score, such as on Klout.com 4. Number of interactions with others on social
media. 5. Something immeasurable.
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Influence? What did you find? What does it mean?
If you don’t know – take a minute and see if you can find information on how the score is calculated or what the statistic on tweetreach.com means.
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Kred’s ‘algorithm’ “Every person or account on Twitter has a Kred score, which is
made up of two parts: the influence score and the outreach score. Your influence score is a measure of your ability to inspire others. It is a number on a scale from 1 to 1,000, and is based on how often your tweets are retweeted, how many new followers you are gaining, and how many replies you generate. (Kred also looks at Facebook likes and Google +1s, but Twitter is the main source of data). It is very much like your Klout score. The Outreach score is measured in levels and is a reflection of how generous you are with retweeting and replying to others.
Kred also figures out which of 200 communities you belong to based on the information in your Twitter bio (which is not always a great description of who you are). It can show you the influence of your whole community and how you rank in that community”
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Can digital influence be scored? Brian Solis states “Influence is not popularity and
popularity is not influence.”
Sites like “Klout” are controversial. People game these sites to increase their scores. PR people chase false influencers, wasting time!
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Digital Diffusion Innovations diffuse in our highly networked world
today via social media. Problem:
How influence occurs through these online channels is debated, often unknown, and people are trying to make $ selling a ‘formula’ it to us
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Looking Forward Next class we’ll start looking at digital influence How to find influencers (if its possible!) And explore what to do once we find them!