WHATWHAT’’S NEW S NEW WHATWHAT’’S NEXT S NEXT WHATWHAT’’S NEEDEDS NEEDED
SOLAR ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
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PV Deployment & Cost Extrapolation
MW PV Installed Per Year
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
year
25% CAGR
35% CAGR
Market (40%)
42% CAGR 2002-2006 Median of industry forecasts calls for 8GW in 2010 (>45% CAGR)
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Silicon Cost/Volume Extrapolation
Source: Dick Swanson of Sunpower Corp at 2006 MIT Stanford UC Berkeley Nanotechnology Forum and Greentech Jan 2008 Podcast
Cost Decreases 20% for Every Doubling of Production Dick Swanson argues that there is no big secret on how to make high efficient solar cells in the lab but knowing how to scale is hard
It took both First Solar and Sunpower more than 10 years to hone their mfg skills
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Triple Junction Cell
Silicon1 Junction Silicon Solar Cell
3 Junction Solar Cell StackMaterial1
Material2
Material3
Energy ConversionEfficiency
Electrical power (Output)Light power (Input)
=
Energy Conversion Efficiencyof Silicon Cell
Energy Conversion Efficiency of MJ Cell
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Needed: Broader Spectral Response
Name
Uncollected Long Wavelength Light(4% of total sun power)
0.7eV Ge Junction(30% of total sun power)
1.42eV GaAs Junction(24% of total sun power)
1.9eV InGaP Junction(42% of total sun power)
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Need for Lattice-matched materials
Computer simulation of the dark line defects seenin semiconductor lasers.New materials systems& growth processes willbe required for wider spectral response.
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Today’s Solar Thermal
• The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII)
– Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity
– Commissioned 1986-1988
– Performance has increased with time
• Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity
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Small-Scale Non-tracking System
Higher efficiency and temperature than competing
collectorsUltimately 50% at 200 C
Lower cost: Non-tracking design
Well suited to many mid-temperature commercial and
industrial applications
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Non-tracking Target Applications
Commercial scale hot water» Northern geographies» Limited roof space» High water demand in all geographies
Industrial process heat» e.g. dairy, food prep., mining, drying, oil extraction, pre-heating
HVAC» Absorption cooling with heat application» Initial penetration in Europe (Spain)
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Wind Has Comparable Costs Close to Coal
US Retail Parity
Comparable to Coal and Natural Gas Wind avg $0.056/kWh ($0.04~$0.12/kWh) Coal is $0.025~0.053/kWhNatural Gas $0.040~0.052/kWh
COE = Cost of Energy
Wholesale Price from Coal
Japan Retail Parity
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Size of Blade Makes A Difference
> 74GW installed; 20% growth> CAPEX is $2-3/w> Already a big business> Constrained by steel cost,
hard to make gear box, ideal wind sites far from demands
> Future opportunity is off-shorewind or distributed small wind
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Denmark: Global wind powerhouse
World’s largest windmill manufacturer
20 % of electricity comes from wind
50 % projected by 2025
Electric cars to act as batteries
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Stretching Our Fuel Supply:Today’s Automobile
Only 1 gallon in 15 goesto moving the wheels
IDLEIDLE
ENGINE LOSSESENGINE LOSSES
ACCESSORIESACCESSORIES
DRIVETRAINDRIVETRAIN
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Prius: Better than a gas-hog, but….
Small (2 kWSmall (2 kW--hr) NiCad battery, short (1hr) NiCad battery, short (1--2 km) range. Partial 2 km) range. Partial discharge only. Captures energy from regenerative breaking.discharge only. Captures energy from regenerative breaking.Engine must drive generator and wheels (canEngine must drive generator and wheels (can’’t be optimized for a t be optimized for a single task).single task).
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Chevrolet VOLT: Electric drive plug-in
16 kWh Li-ion battery.65 km range on one charge. Overnight charging requires 220V.Small gasoline engine can recharge battery for additional 480 km.
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NEEDED STEPS
GROW THE GRID: Transmission lines to link cities with deserts. example
BEHAVIORAL CHANGE: Time of day pricing. example
GREENER BUILDINGS: High-R windows and insulation. example